College Football Weekly Rant - Week 11

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT

THE BIG preTENd…

Two weekends ago we watched one of the most entertaining and exciting football games of the season in Columbus, when Ohio State hosted #2 Penn State.  The winner would have the easy path to the Big Ten Championship out of the East division and be sitting pretty to be selected into the CFB Playoff.  Fast forward one week later and both teams are licking their wounds after being upset on the road, giving both their 2^nd loss of the season and likely ending any hope either had at making the playoff.  Not only do those losses likely eliminate both Penn State and Ohio State from playoff contention, but it puts a big question mark on their entire conferences chances of making the playoff.

Wisconsin now has the best chance of making the playoff from the Big Ten and that is simply because they are undefeated.  However, strength of schedule (or lack of strength in their schedule) has hurt the Badgers through the first two CFB Playoff Rankings.  The Badgers were ranked 9^th in the 1^st ranking and only moved up 1 spot this week after 2 teams in front of them lost.  In fact, they were jumped by fellow unbeaten Miami.  The only other hopes for the Big Ten sit ranked 12-13-14, Michigan State, Ohio State & Penn State respectively.  All three of those teams sit with 2-losses and if they were to make the playoff, would become the first ever 2-loss team to make it.  The fact that there are two other 2-loss teams in front of that group make it even less likely.  This week either Ohio State or Michigan State will get tehri 3^rd loss on the season as they face-off with each other in Columbus. 

The question now becomes, would the committee leave out an undefeated team from the Big Ten in favor of a 1-loss teams, some of which may not even claim a conference championship (Notre Dame, SEC runner-up)?  With the committee ranking a 6-3 Iowa team this week, Wisconsin will get there 1^st chance to play a ranked opponent this season.  The downfall for the Badgers is that if they beat Iowa, the Hawkeyes won’t likely be ranked anymore, leaving the Badgers, once again, with ZERO wins over ranked opponents.  The final two opponents in the regular season for Wisconsin are also not ranked, meaning that their only chance to get a win over a ranked team will likely be in the Big Ten Championship Game.  Would one win over a ranked team give Wisconsin the resume needed to crack the Top 4 and get selected into the CFB Playoff?

Only time will tell…

WHAT I LEARNED IN WEEK TEN

*Offense Is Fun, But Defense Is Good Too.  62-52 was the final score of the 2017 edition of Bedlam between rivals Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.  Is that good for football?  Is that fun to watch?  Don’t get me wrong, I love seeing these dynamic offenses when they are clicking, but I also want to see a defensive stop occasionally.  Both teams are good enough offensively to compete with any team in the nation, but to win a National Championship, you have to play defense.  Until one of these teams does that, I think they should remain outside the Top 4 in the rankings.

*The U Has Their Swag Back.  I have been a huge critic of Miami all season because they have seemed to do just enough to win games.  On Saturday, in primetime, against rival Virginia Tech, the Hurricanes dominated.  Virginia Tech entered the game 7-1 and ranked 13^th in the nation, they left scoring a season low 10 points on just 299 yards of offense, while turning the ball over to the Miami defense 4 times.  In the win the Canes also clinched their 1^st division championship since joining the ACC.  Miami jumped to #7 in the rankings this week, deservingly so.  They will have more chances to climb in the upcoming weeks with games vs Notre Dame and an ACC Championship game, possibly against Clemson, still on the schedule.

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK ELEVEN

*Letting The Rankings Sort Themselves Out.  There are three matchups this week between Top 10 teams in the most recent CFB Playoff Rankings.  All of which will impact next week’s rankings considerably.  #1 Georgia @ #10 Auburn (3:30, CBS) gives Georgia a chance to cement their claim on a playoff spot, even if they were to lose Alabama in the SEC Championship.  It would give the Bulldogs their 2^nd road win over a Top 10 team.  For Auburn, it gives them a chance to throw a wrench into the SEC race.  A win over Georgia this week, makes the Iron Bowl a winner-take-all game for the SEC West Title.  Winning both of those games would give Auburn a legit shot to become the 1^st 2-loss team to make the CFB Playoff. #3 Notre Dame @ #7 Miami (8pm, ABC) This is a must-win game for Notre Dame as they try to make it into the playoff without having a conference tie-in.  The Irish can’t afford a 2^nd loss, even if it is on the road to a Top 10 team.  Miami could probably afford a loss since it is not an ACC game and it would be their 1^st of the year, but they would then need to run the table, including a win over Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, to have a chance at the 4-team playoff.  #6 TCU @ #5 Oklahoma (8pm, FOX) This match-up is what the Big XII would have been hoping for in the Big XII Championship Game in 3 weeks, not now.  Now it all but eliminates the loser from playoff contention, whereas the winner might also have to win a re-match game in the conference championship to get in to the playoff.     

*Bounce Back games.  With teams like Ohio State, NC State, Penn State, and Oklahoma State all losing last week, it will be interesting to see which teams roll up sleeves and man-up this week and which teams fold up their tent on the season.  All 4 have chances to still win their division and get to their conference championship game, but they can’t afford any more stumbles along the way.

COACHING WATCH

WARM SEAT:

Gus Malzahn (Auburn) – The head coach of the 7-2, 10^th ranked Auburn Tigers is safe.  The coach of the 8-4 Auburn Tigers could find himself very much on the hot seat.  That reality is very possible as Auburn still has games versus’ the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the nation.  A loss to Alabama would also be his 4^th straight Iron Bowl loss, which would certainly not sit well with the Auburn boosters and fan base.

HOT SEAT:

Barry Odom (Missouri) – The only reason Odom is on this list is because Missouri plays in the SEC now.  If this were 7-10 years ago and the Tigers were in the Big XII still, no way is he on this list, but expectations in the SEC are different.  Odom now has the Tigers at 4-5 in Year 2 and even possibly going to a bowl.  His job seems safe, but again, life in the SEC is a completely different animal, so who knows?

SEAT ON FIRE(D):

Bret Bielema (Arkansas) – Arkansas needs a rather crazy 4^th quarter comeback to beat a 1-8 Coastal Carolina team last week.  Think about that for a minute.  Sitting at 1-4 in the SEC, with the next two coming against ranked teams in rival LSU, and Mississippi State, there is a distinct possibility that Bielema doesn’t make it to the season finale against Missouri. 

Butch Jones (Tennessee) – Winless in the SEC at 0-5 and now their top-rated recruit, a Knoxville kid nonetheless, decommits from the Vols.  Can it get any worse for Tennessee?  I don’t understand why they just haven’t pulled the plug on this season yet.  Maybe even more comical than this season has been are the Vols fans that seem to think their program will attract top candidates like Jon Gruden to replace Jones.

Jim Mora, Jr. (UCLA) – With an NFL caliber QB healthy and under center, this was the year that Bruin fans thought UCLA might be back competing at the top of the PAC 12 South.  Instead, they are a half a game out of the basement in the PAC 12 South with 3 very loseable games remaining on the schedule.

Mike Riley (Nebraska) – Nebraska has been to 9 straight bowl games, but that streak is in jeopardy as the Cornhuskers are just 4-5 with a road games at Minnesota and Penn State before closing the season at home vs Iowa.  It has been pretty well known that Riley would not be back since Week 3 when Nebraska lost to Northern Illinois and the school’s AD was fired for not firing Riley.  Being a middle of the Big Ten West type team is certainly not good enough for Husker fans. 

Lovie Smith (Illinois) – Smith is only in Year 2 at Illinois, but this experiment is not going well.  Illinois, which plays in the considerably easier side of the Big Ten, has not won a game since September 9^th.  They have also been outscored on average 31-14 in their 6 Big Ten games this season, all losses.  And that is without playing Ohio State or Penn State, the two highest scoring teams in the conference.  This week they play Indiana, which seems like their only chance at salvaging a Big Ten win this season.  Indiana is also 0-6 in the Big Ten.

Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M) – After two straight bad losses, the Kevin Sumlin Era at Texas A&M is as good as over.  Currently sitting at 5-4 overall and just 3-3 in the SEC, the Aggies are assured of a 5^th straight season not reaching double-digits wins in Sumlin’s 6^th year on the job.

PLAYOFF PICKS

I have now started to release my Rant Rankings the day prior to the CFB Playoff selection releasing their updated rankings.  Be sure to check that out.

That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote-control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!

Rant Rankings 11-6-17

Since these are my rankings, I make the rules.  This week I stopped after 18 teams because after 18 we get into teams that in my mind don’t deserve to be ranked.

These rankings are 100% based on what I have seen watching college football to this point of the season.  These are not projections for what I think the committee rankings will be or should be.

1. Georgia Bulldogs (9-0) Georgia was once again dominant in their 24-10 win over South Carolina on Saturday.  The 14-point win was the smallest margin so far this season for Georgia, but they were never in any danger of losing.  The Bulldogs have their stiffest SEC challenge yet, coming this Saturday as they travel to #13 Auburn (3:30pm, CBS).

2. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0) Just like Georgia, the Tide keep rolling (pun sadly intended).  Alabama also was a 24-10 winner on Saturday, when they hosted LSU.  Bama won, despite being outgained (306-299) by the Tigers.  It was the 1^st time this season that Alabama was outgained in a game.  Alabama goes on the road this Saturday to take on Mississippi State (7pm, ESPN).

3. Oklahoma Sooners (8-1) Once again the Sooners come out victorious in their rivalry Bedlam game with #10 Oklahoma State, winning in a shootout 62-52, in this year’s edition.  OU now can claim the two best road wins in the country this season when you also include their 31-16 win in Columbus over Ohio State in Week 2.  The Sooners sit in the driver’s seat to represent the Big XII in the College Football Playoff.  However, if they stumble this week when they host #7 TCU (8pm, FOX) the Big XII may be without a representative once again.

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1) Not the best performance from the Irish on Saturday in their 48-37 win over Wake Forest, but every team has a hiccup over a 12-week schedule.  The difference is that Notre Dame still won when they weren’t playing their best.  Lots of teams can’t get away with that.  ND will need to bring their “A” Game on Saturday when they travel to #6 Miami (8pm, ABC)

5. Clemson Tigers (8-1) Chalk up another impressive win for Clemson to add to their resume.  The Tigers won on the road in Raleigh, taking down NC State in a battle for 1^st place in the ACC Atlantic division, 38-31.  The Tigers had already beat #13 Auburn & #15 Virginia Tech this season.  Next up for the Tigers, Florida State (3:30, ESPN).  And even though the Seminoles are down this year, this game has grown into a big rivalry in the ACC Atlantic.

6. Miami Hurricanes (8-0) The Hurricanes finally impressed me this season. The defense came to play Saturday, forcing 4 Virginia Tech turnover and limiting the 15^th ranked Hokies to just 299 yards.  Miami will have to play better offensively if they want to beat Notre Dame Saturday, turning it over 3 times like they did against the Hokies won’t be good enough.  Win or lose vs ND, the Canes are on a collision course with Clemson to play for the ACC Championship.

7. TCU Horned Frogs (8-1) TCU does something that is unheard of in the Big XII, they win with defense.  The Horned Frogs have held their last 4 opponents to 14 points or less, including a dominating 24-7 against Texas on Saturday.  The old saying that “Defense travels” will be put to the test Saturday when TCU goes to Norman to face the high-powered Oklahoma offense.  The winner of this game will sit alone atop the Big XII standings with just 1 conference loss.

8. Washington Huskies (8-1) Washington remains to be the PAC 12’s last hope at claiming a playoff berth.  The Huskies lead the nation in yards per play defense, which says something considering some of the offenses that come out of the PAC 12.  The Huskies will have another challenge this week as they go to Stanford (10:30pm, FS1) and face the leading rusher in the Power 5, Bryce Love.

9. Wisconsin Badgers (9-0) Like Washington being the PAC 12’s last playoff hope, Wisconsin has become the Big Ten’s last hope.  The Badgers still have not beaten anyone of note this season.  They will face the best team they have seen to this point on Saturday when they host Iowa (3:30pm, ABC) who is coming off a big upset win over Ohio State.

10. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-2) The Cowboys are my highest ranked 2-loss team simply because they have lost to 2 teams in the Top 7.  I have been driving the Ok State bandwagon all season and still believe that they could beat anyone on their schedule any given week.  I can promise you that neither Oklahoma or TCU would want to see the Cowboys in a rematch in the Big XII Championship Game that 1^st weekend in December.  The Cowboys would have to win out for that to happen however, starting this week in Ames, when they face Iowa State (NOON, ABC).

11. Central Florida Knights (8-0) UCF has proven to be the cream of the crop in the Group of 5 this season as their offense continues to pile up the points.  With cake-walk games upcoming against UCONN (NOON, ESPNU) and Temple, the Knights should enter their season finale against 8-1 South Florida unbeaten.  If they come out of that game and win the AAC Championship Game the following week they will get a NY^ Bowl Game as their reward.

12. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-2) So how do you follow up your biggest win of the season?  If you are the Buckeyes, you lay an absolute dud to a 2-3 Big Ten team, thus knocking yourself out of any real chance of making the playoffs.  Ohio State does still have a chance to win the Big Ten East and therefore the Big Ten Championship Game.  They will need to bounce back this week to do so however, when they host #14 Michigan State (NOON, FOX).  Both teams are currently tied atop the Big Ten East standings at 5-1.

13. Auburn Tigers (7-2) Auburn has the best chance of any 2-loss team to make the Playoff.  It is all in front of the Tigers, as they host #1 Georgia this week and then go to #2 Alabama for the Iron Bowl to end the regular season.  If they win both of those they will once again face Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.  If the Tigers win all 3 of those games, plus beat Louisiana-Monroe in 2 weeks, it would be tough to keep them out of the Playoff, 2-losses or not.

14. Michigan State (7-2) The Spartans got blasted by Notre Dame in week 3.  Since then their lone loss was a 3OT thriller vs Northwestern.  They have one last hurdle this week to reclaim the top spot in the Big Ten East, and that is the Ohio State Buckeyes.  A win in Columbus will certainly bolster their stock more, but more importantly, it will likely put Sparty in the Big Ten Championship Game.

15. Virginia Tech (7-2) We mentioned Oklahoma State having two losses to teams in the Top 7, well VT can do one better.  They have 2 losses this season to teams with a combined 16-1 record and both (Clemson/Miami) rank in the Top 6.  Unfortunately for the Hokies, unlike Oklahoma State, they have been outmatched in their losses.  VaTech looks to get back to their winning ways in Atlanta when they face Georgia Tech (12:20, ACC Network).

16. USC Trojans (7-2) I admit it, I wrote off the Trojans after they got run over by Notre Dame a few weeks back.  Stepping back and looking at the big picture, their losses came to #4 ND and #18 Washington State, not terrible.  The Trojans also have already clinched the PAC 12 South Title, which means they are still alive for the PAC 12 Championship.  USC goes to Colorado (4pm, FOX) on Saturday.

17. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-2) For the 2^nd straight week, the Nittany Lions faced a tough opponent, and for the 2^nd straight week the Nittany Lions failed their test.  Penn State will likely end the season without beating a ranked opponent.  A 3^rd straight loss on Saturday against Rutgers (NOON, BTN) would drop Penn State behind the Scarlet Knights in the Big Ten East standings.

18. Washington State (7-2) The Cougars kept their PAC 12 Championship hopes alive last week beating Stanford 24-21.  Washington State would have to win their final 2 games to win the PAC 12 North and get a bid into the Championship Game.  It will not be easy however, as both games come on the road, where WSU is just 1-2 this season.  First up is Utah (5:30, PAC12 Network) on Saturday, then comes the Apple Cup against rival Washington.