College Football Weekly Rant - Week 12

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT

BRAND BIAS

Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State, USC, The SEC and the Big Ten. These names are all iconic brands when it comes to college football.  They are household names nationwide.  They draw eyeballs to TV sets and put butts in stadiums, but they should NOT be the deciding factor in who makes the CFB Playoff.  The fact is they do though.  Just look at the most recent rankings by the CFB Playoff committee, they are blinded by the brand just like you and me.  Let’s do a blind test on the Top 15 teams from the most recent rankings.  Below I have them listed randomly with season stats (Wins/ Wins vs current Top 25/ Strength of Schedule/ Record vs Massey Power Top 50/ Best Win based on ranking of opponent in Massey Power Top 50/ Wins over teams under .500).  Pick who you believe are the Top 4 teams in the country…

TEAM 1: 9 wins. 3 wins vs Top 25, #11 SOS, 6-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #10, 3 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 2: 9 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #83 SOS, 1-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #35, 3 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 3: 8 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #10 SOS, 4-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #13, 3 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 4: 8 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #12 SOS, 2-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #8, 5 wins vs teams under.500
TEAM 5: 9 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #20 SOS, 4-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #4, 3 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 6: 10 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #36 SOS, 3-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #21, 4 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 7: 8 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #25 SOS, 4-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #30, 2 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 8: 8 wins, 3 wins vs Top 25, #53 SOS, 3-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #14, 3 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 9: 10 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #47 SOS, 4-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #22, 6 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 10: 9 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #2 SOS, 8-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #9, 2 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 11: 8 wins, 3 wins vs Top 25, #3 SOS, 3-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #14, 2 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 12: 8 wins, 0 wins vs Top 25, #13 SOS, 5-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #20, 4 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 13: 9 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #16 SOS, 6-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #4, 4 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 14: 8 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #19 SOS, 3-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #7, 2 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 15: 8 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #31 SOS, 4-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #11, 2 wins vs teams under .500

TEAM KEY and link to Massey Top 50 Power Rankings are at the end of the RANT

I still firmly believe that Ohio State was selected over TCU in the 1^st ever playoff based on brand recognition alone.  Ohio State went on to win the National Championship making many forget about how shady the rankings changed between the final 2 weeks of the season despite no teams in the top group losing.  I hope that doesn’t happen again this season.

WHAT I LEARNED IN WEEK ELEVEN

*Notre Dame Needs To Join A Conference.  Two years ago, we saw a 2-loss Notre Dame team, which lost those two games by a total of 4 points and both to ranked teams, miss out on the CFB Playoff.  This year we will see it again.   Granted a 2-loss team has never made the playoff, but this year that is likely to change and Notre Dame won’t even be in the discussion when it happens.  The Irish have long been an Independent in football, but the game has changed.  ND is at a huge disadvantage now as they are competing for the same prize as every other team in the nation, a National Championship.  The Irish are currently ranked 8^th, which is the 2^nd highest of any 2-loss team.  However, other 2-loss teams that are behind them in the current rankings like Ohio State, TCU, Oklahoma State and even Washington State all have better chances of making the playoff than Notre Dame.  The advantages those teams have are clear.  They all have an opportunity to be named a conference champion and by doing so, beating another highly ranked team in their 13^th game of the season.  Notre Dame plays 12 games, not 13.  Notre Dame does not play in a conference, therefore cannot win a conference championship.  Notre Dame will be lacking these points on their CFB Playoff Resume until they make a change, and because of that facing a steep uphill battle.

*A 4-Team Playoff Is Plenty.  You will hear a lot of people in the upcoming weeks claiming that the CFB Playoff needs to expand due to teams being left out.  That is non-sense.  Every team in the nation has 14 weeks to prove their worth to the committee.  The committee then has the job of selecting the 4 teams that are most worthy, based on the regular season and conference championship games.  There are 3 weeks remaining in this college football season and you could argue that 10-12 teams (although the real number is probably 7-8) still have an outside shot at making the 4-team field.  Can you imagine if you double the playoff to 8?  You could have 3-loss teams in the playoff.  When a team can lose a quarter of their games and make the playoffs it devalues the regular season.  The college football regular season is the best in all of sports.

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK TWELVE

*Uniforms. Yes, this week’s schedule is bad enough that I’m looking forward to great uniforms.  The NFL has their Color Rush gimmick for Thursday Night football, college football has UCLA vs. USC.  These two LA-based schools have their annual rivalry game and with it brings the tradition of both teams wearing their home jerseys.  You get the iconic red USC jersey against the light blue and gold of UCLA.  You are in luck too, because even though UCLA is awful this season, the rest of Saturday’s schedule is so bad, that the entire nation can check out these uniforms paired up against each other.  It is the FOX game of the week (ugh!).     

*Week 13.  As I mentioned there are no good football games this week.  The only game between ranked opponents is a match-up between two teams that have combined to beat NOBODY this season, Michigan and Wisconsin.  I’m sure the Big Ten will celebrate a Wisconsin win and try to use it to bump the Badgers up into the Top 4 for the playoff, but spare me.  And if Michigan wins, I’m sure they will jump up into the Top 10-15 in next week’s rankings as the Big Ten Hype Machine will be talking about Ohio State vs Michigan until our ears bleed.  STOP IT!!!

COACHING CAROUSEL

Butch Jones makes #2, with many more coming soon.  

Florida Gators – The Gators have had their opening for about two weeks now and they have made some progress.  Most reports say they have locked in on three candidates and they are the same 3 names I listed as the top candidates when the job became open, Chip Kelly, Scott Frost & Dan Mullen.  I still think that Willie Taggart would be a fantastic hire for the Gators, but that doesn’t seem likely at this point.  With the new Early Signing Day in college football this season, I’d expect the Gators to move fast on this one.  I imagine they will have their guy by the 1^st week of December.

Tennessee Volunteers – Butch Jones had lost his last game against each of the 13 other schools in the SEC after last week’s drubbing at the hands of lowly Missouri (50-17).  That was enough for the university to FINALLY part ways with their head coach.  Tennessee had improved each year under Butch Jones, winning 4 games his 1^st year, 5 his 2^nd and 9 each of the past 2 years.  But even after his 2^nd straight 9-win season he entered this season on the hot seat.  After going 4-6 in the team’s first 10 games, it was time to pull the plug.  I don’t have a problem with the Vols firing Jones, but the expectations Vols fans and administration have for their football program are ridiculous.  It has been 17 years since Tennessee finished the season ranked in the AP Top 10 and 11 years since they finished in the Top 20, yet the expectations by their fan base is that they should be competing for the SEC Championship and the National Championship every year.  They haven’t even won the SEC East since 2007.  They haven’t won the SEC title since their National Championship season in 1998.  Tennessee will flash a ton of cash and go after every big name you can think of for this job, but the fact is, Tennessee isn’t a great job.  We already saw on Thursday that Jon Gruden (their pipedream target) wouldn’t even meet with them about the opening.  I expect them to also try to talk to coaches like Jimbo Fisher and Chip Kelly, but neither of those guys will take that job either.  Bottom line is that Tennessee fans will be disappointed by this hire.  In my mind a few calls that I would make if I were AD John Currie are Mike Leach at Washington State, James Franklin at Penn State and Justin Fuentes at Virginia Tech.

HOT SEAT

HOT SEAT:
At this point in the season, I don’t think there is really any “hot seats” any more.  We have a pretty good idea which of the bigger programs are going to be making a change over the next few weeks.

SEAT ON FIRE(D):

Bret Bielema (Arkansas) – The first show dropped in this one on Wednesday when Arkansas fired Bielema’s top ally, AD Jeff Long.  Like Nebraska firing their AD before the inevitable happens with Mike Riley, it looks the same fate will occur at Arkansas with Bielema.  Arkansas plays Mississippi State this week and closes the season next Friday, the 24^th, against Missouri.  I expect Bielema to be fired by the 25^th.

Jim Mora, Jr. (UCLA) – UCLA is 5-5 which is exactly average.  They could get to 6 or maybe even 7 wins, but that won’t be enough to save Mora’s job.  The Bruins go across town and play rival USC this Saturday in a game that could get really ugly for a UCLA defense that have held just 3 of 10 teams under 30 points this season.  If it gets bad enough, it would not surprise me if the Bruins are being coached by an interim coach in their finale against Cal in 2 weeks.

Mike Riley (Nebraska) – Nebraska just got stomped by a Minnesota team that had just 1 Big Ten win coming into the game.  The Gophers put up 54 points in the game, they had only scored 44 points in their last 3 games combined.  Penn State should be really fun for Mike Riley & Co. this week, we all know that Jams Franklin never misses an opportunity to run up the score.  It looks like Nebraska is going to let (force) Riley to finish out the season, otherwise he would have been gone Sunday morning when the team arrived back from Minnesota.  The Cornhuskers close the season with Iowa. 

Lovie Smith (Illinois) – Smith is only in Year 2 at Illinois, but this experiment is not going well.  Illinois, which plays in the considerably easier side of the Big Ten, has not won a game since September 9^th.  They have also been outscored on average 31-14 in their 6 Big Ten games this season, all losses.  And that is without playing Ohio State or Penn State, the two highest scoring teams in the conference.  This week they play Indiana, which seems like their only chance at salvaging a Big Ten win this season.  Indiana is also 0-6 in the Big Ten.

Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M) – This is another one that seems like a done deal now.  Sumlin and the Aggies are just 6-4, and unlikely to match his previous low win total of 8.  They close the year with 2 straight road games, Mississippi this weekend and LSU to close the season.  Reports from College Station not only already have Sumlin fired, but also are already naming possible suitors to replace him.  Who will be on the sidelines for the Aggies next year is still a mystery, but it certainly won’t be Kevin Sumlin.

PLAYOFF PICKS

I now release my Rant Rankings the day prior to the CFB Playoff selection releasing their updated rankings.  Be sure to check that out.

That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote-control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!

BLIND TEST TEAMS:
TEAM 1: 9 wins. 3 wins vs Top 25, #11 SOS, 6-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #10, 3 wins vs teams under .500 OKLAHOMA
TEAM 2: 9 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #83 SOS, 1-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #35, 3 wins vs teams under .500 UCF
TEAM 3: 8 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #10 SOS, 4-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #13, 3 wins vs teams under .500 PENN STATE
TEAM 4: 8 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #12 SOS, 2-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #8, 5 wins vs teams under.500 OHIO STATE
TEAM 5: 9 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #20 SOS, 4-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #4, 3 wins vs teams under .500 GEORGIA
TEAM 6: 10 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #36 SOS, 3-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #21, 4 wins vs teams under .500 ALABAMA
TEAM 7: 8 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #25 SOS, 4-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #30, 2 wins vs teams under .500 USC
TEAM 8: 8 wins, 3 wins vs Top 25, #53 SOS, 3-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #14, 3 wins vs teams under .500 WASHINGTON STATE
TEAM 9: 10 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #47 SOS, 4-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #22, 6 wins vs teams under .500 WISCONSIN
TEAM 10: 9 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #2 SOS, 8-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #9, 2 wins vs teams under .500 CLEMSON
TEAM 11: 8 wins, 3 wins vs Top 25, #3 SOS, 3-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #14, 2 wins vs teams under .500 NOTRE DAME
TEAM 12: 8 wins, 0 wins vs Top 25, #13 SOS, 5-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #20, 4 wins vs teams under .500 OKLAHOMA STATE
TEAM 13: 9 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #16 SOS, 6-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #4, 4 wins vs teams under .500 MIAMI
TEAM 14: 8 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #19 SOS, 3-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #7, 2 wins vs teams under .500 AUBURN
TEAM 15: 8 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #31 SOS, 4-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #11, 2 wins vs teams under .500 TCU

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings

Rant Rankings 11-13-17

These rankings are 100% based on what I have seen watching college football to this point of the season.  These are not projections for what I think the committee rankings will be or should be.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0) Survive and Advance… It wasn’t pretty, but the Tide got a tough road win on Saturday over Mississippi State.  They now have their annual late November cupcake game vs Mercer, before the Iron Bowl vs Auburn in 2 weeks.

2. Miami Hurricanes (9-0) I have been critical of the Canes all year (until the beatdown vs VT) but the performance Miami had last week vs Notre Dame was one of the best of the season.  The defense carried them for the first half of the season.  Now the offense is playing well.  Look out The U is back!  They look to stay unbeaten vs Virginia (NOON, ABC) Saturday.

3. Oklahoma Sooners (9-1) Back to back wins over ranked teams and OU is now in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot and yet another Big XII Title.  A win at Kansas (3:30, ESPN) will clinch a spot in the Big XII Championship game.

4. Clemson Tigers (9-1) The Tigers clinched the ACC Atlantic division once again, beating Florida State on Saturday.  Showing that they are a true southern school, Clemson will play The Citadel of the FCS this week, before closing the regular season with rival South Carolina.

5. Auburn Tigers (8-2) The only team that could rival Miami for the Team of the Week honors (if that were a thing) would be Auburn.  The Tigers crushed Georgia for 60 minutes, handing the Bulldogs their 1^st loss of the season.  Auburn has Louisiana Monroe (NOON, ESPN2) this week, before hosting a winner take all matchup with Alabama for the SEC West Title, and possibly much more.

6. Georgia Bulldogs (9-1) The Bulldogs had been one of the best defenses in the country before last week’s beatdown by Auburn.  Georgia allowed nearly 500 yards of offense, including 237 on the ground.  The Bulldogs have already clinched the SEC East, but need to get themselves right vs Kentucky (CBS, 3:30) if they want to get back into the playoff picture.

7. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-2) Which Buckeye team will show up this week when they host Illinois (ABC, 3:30) the one that got blasted by an average Iowa team, or the one that blasted a tough Michigan State defense to the tune of 48 points?  The good news for Ohio State is that Illinois is so awful it won’t matter.

8. Wisconsin Badgers (10-0) Another win.  Another win over an unranked team.  Wisconsin is 10-0 now on the season and has still yet to beat a team currently ranked.  That trend could continue this week when they host Michigan (NOON, FOX). Michigan is ranked 19^th in the most recent AP poll, but if they were to lose to the Badgers, they will likely drop out, meaning Wisconsin could end the regular season without a win over a ranked team.

9. TCU Horned Frogs (8-2) The Horned Frogs were the surprise team of the 1^st half of the season.  Now they are coming off their 2^nd straight road loss and trying to hold to a spot in the Big XII Championship game to revenge this week’s loss to Oklahoma.  They’ll try to snap their road struggles this week in Lubbock as they take on Texas Tech (NOON, FS1).

10. Oklahoma State (8-2) The team the Horned Frogs are fighting with for that 2^nd spot in the Big XII Championship game is Ok State.  The Cowboys came from down 14-0 to Iowa State to secure a 49-42 shootout win.  The win puts OSU tied for 2^nd place in the conference with West Virginia and TCU.  The Cowboys host Kansas State (3:30, ESPN2) this week.

11. Central Florida Knights (9-0) It almost seems like UCF has become bored with their opponents this season.  The Knights jumped out to a 21-3 1^st Q lead over UCONN and toyed with them for the middle two quarters, before putting up 21 more in the final quarter of play for an easy win.  UCF has a cold-weather test at Temple (NOON, ESPNU) on Saturday.

12. Notre Dame (8-2) Just when I start to believe in Notre Dame (something I try to never do) they get bombed on a big stage.  The Irish were never in their game with Miami on Saturday.  ND has another challenge this week, that is bouncing back to face the unorthodox offense of Navy (3:30, NBC).

13.  Washington State Cougars (9-2) The Cougars hit a rough spot with tough bad road losses in October, but the pirates Mike Leach has righted the ship (yes, I know that was awful).  Washington State with a much-needed late season BYE week this week before the Apple Cup in 2 weeks, which could decide the PAC12 North Champion.

14. USC Trojans (9-2) Have I mentioned how bad the PAC-12 is this season? USC is in cruise control in the PAC12 South, having already clinched the division.  This week they will host UCLA (8p, ABC) in what is the annually the greatest uniform match-up in college football, as both LA schools where their home colors for the game.

15. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-2) Penn State keeps doing what they do best, which is winning the games they should win.  The Nittany Lions fell behind 6-0 to Rutgers in State College before rattling off the final 35 points of the game for an easy win. PSU has another easy one at home this week when Nebraska (4p, FOX) visits Happy Valley.

16. Mississippi State (7-3) The Bulldogs played a great game on Saturday and almost took down the #2 team in the nation.  Although they didn’t pull it off, they may have given the blueprint to teams like Auburn or Georgia, who still might see Alabama.  They may have also just lost their head coach as teams like Florida and Tennessee watched him nearly pull off the upset.  Miss State goes to Arkansas (NOON, CBS) to get back on the winning way.

17. Stanford Cardinal (7-3) I’m not sure there is a more unpredictable team in the country than Stanford.  When healthy and playing well, they are as good as anyone.  But they haven’t been healthy much and certainly haven’t played the way many are used to seeing Stanford play.  Stanford host Cal (8p, FOX) in The Big Game Saturday.

18. Washington Huskies (8-2) With all the chaos that took place on Saturday Washington would have been in a great position to move up in the rankings.  That is, if they hadn’t laid an egg against Stanford the night before.  The Huskies host Utah (10:30, ESPN) this week as they try to stay alive in the PAC12 North race.

19. Memphis Tigers (8-1) Memphis is silently sitting at 8-1 hoping to get another shot at UCF in the AAC Championship Game and sneak into a New Year’s Six game as the Group of 5 rep.  The Tigers face a high-powered SMU (NOON, ESPNN) offense this Saturday.  A win and the Tigers clinched their division and a spot in that championship game.

20. Arizona Wildcats (7-3) The Wildcats have the most exciting player in college football in Khalil Tate and have won 5 of 6 games since he entered the lineup.  The lone loss was on the road to USC.  Tate and the Wildcats go to Eugene to take on Oregon (7p, PACN) this week.