The AP Preseason rankings were first released about 20 weeks ago. Two things were clear upon first glance, the Big East was expected to be really good and there were about 10-15 teams with a legit chance of getting to the Final Four in Detroit. Everyone expected North Carolina to be #1 all season (unanimous #1 in both preseason polls) but the group of teams behind them was very deep. Most of those teams did not let the experts down.
There are no Cinderella’s this year, except Arizona, a 12-seed, but a team making their 25th consecutive tournament appearance is hardly a surprise team. No, the experts pretty much had it from day one. Ten of the teams playing in the Sweet 16 were ranked in the top 13 in the AP Preseason Poll. 15 of the 16 teams either were ranked or received at least one vote to be ranked. The lone team not to receive a vote was Missouri, a team that finished with a .500 record last season. However, Missouri is no surprise this year. All they have done this season is go 30-6 and win the Big XII Conference Tournament earning them a 3-seed.
So here we are, the Sweet 16 round and we have a record five teams from the Big East. We have no teams from the SEC. We have as many teams from the Pac-10 as we do the West Coast Conference, Atlantic-10 and Conference USA (one each). And again, we do not have any Cinderella’s, unless of course you count everyone’s favorite original Cinderella team Gonzaga, who is no longer considered a Cinderella.
This Sweet 16 is loaded. It has every team that was ranked #1 during the season (minus Wake Forest after their pathetic effort against Cleveland State in the 1st round). It has 13 teams from the BCS conferences and 3 mid-majors in Gonzaga, Memphis and Xavier, all of who are widely considered the faces of the term “mid-major”. It is the first time since the tournament expanded to 64/65 teams that all of the top 12 teams (#1-3 seeds in each region) advanced this far. Throw in two 4-seeds and you have 14 of the seeded 16 teams in the Sweet 16.
So let’s breakdown these Sweet 16 match-ups:
THURSDAY
WEST REGION
Glendale, AZ
7:07 tip time
1-UCONN Huskies vs 5-Purdue Boilermakers
UCONN has been the most impressive team thus far in the tournament, no question. That coming from a team that almost lost its #1 seed in the last week of the season. The Huskies have won their first two games by a total of 82 points, which ties the record for the largest winning margin in the first weekend in tournament history with the 1999 Duke Blue Devils (UCONN beat those Blue Devils in the ’99 Finals). Purdue is playing well with Robbie Hummel back playing up to his ability. During the Boilermakers current 5-game win streak, which includes winning the conference tournament, Hummel has averaged nearly a double-double giving them an athletic big man, which creates match-up problems. I do not think he will be matched up against Thabeet from UCONN so he could have another big game.
9:37 tip time
2-Memphis Tigers vs 3-Missouri Tigers
The battle of the Nickname, the loser actually has to think of a somewhat original one. This game is certainly being played in an appropriate site, the home of the high-powered offense of the Arizona Cardinals. Both these teams love to run. I highly doubt any shot clock violations in this one, in fact, I doubt the shot clock will every get to single digits. The interesting thing about these two teams is the style in which they get out and run. Missouri will use a full court press, which will really test the ball handling of Tyreke Evans. Evans is the PG on this team because Calipari likes having the ball in the hands of his top scorer, not because of his handle. Memphis plays a half-court aggressive defense and runs every chance they get off the break, whether it is a steal, missed shot or even a made basket. This one should be fun to watch.
EAST REGION
Boston, MA
7:27 tip time
1-Pitt Panthers vs 4-Xavier Musketeers
This is a fun and interesting match-up. Pitt was the darling of the tournament and the trendy pick to win the whole thing on Selection Sunday. Now, after two games that were closer then some expected everyone is waiting for them to fall short of the Elite 8 one more time. Oddly enough, this is best team in Pitt history and the one with the most expectations since the 1987-88 team that Xavier coach Sean Miller played on. The ‘87-‘88 team was widely considered the best team in school history until this season. Pitt is better at every position in this match-up with Xavier, however if Xavier gets on a hot shooting streak like Oklahoma State did against the Panthers, look out. When Xavier gets outside scoring from both B.J Raymond and C.J Anderson, they are a tough team to play. This one is a game that will be played slowly; Xavier knows they have to have it that way if they want a chance.
9:57 tip time
2-Duke Blue Devils vs 3-Villanova Wildcats
The NCAA holds their annual 3-point contest during the week of the Final Four, but this game will be a preliminary round. Both teams play three guards, one combo guard and one really tall guy who plays like he is closer to 6-foot then 7-foot. The over/under for total points in the paint is three, and I am taking the under. Honestly, I do not think Duke has anyone that can stop Dante Cunningham from Nova. If they do not it will be a long night, if they can then Duke has a chance.
FRIDAY
MIDWEST REGION
Indianapolis, IN
7:07 tip time
1-Louisville Cardinals vs 12-Arizona Wildcats
Louisville has the easiest path to Detroit. While the Wildcats are a good team with lots of NBA type talent they are a hit and miss team and have been all season. Arizona has used its athleticism to their advantage in both games so far in this tournament, Friday they will not be able to because Louisville is just as athletic. This seems odd to say about a team that has made it this far, but I do not see any way that Arizona beats Louisville. That leaves Louisville with either Kansas (a legit threat) or Michigan State (the worst of the 2-seeds) in their way to get to Detroit.
9:37 tip time
2-Michigan State Spartans vs 3-Kansas Jayhawks
Bill Self is no question the Coach of the Year nationally after getting this Jayhawk team to the Sweet 16 after losing as much as they did after last seasons National Title team. These two teams matched up earlier this season in East Lansing and the Spartans jumped out to a huge first half lead and won by 13. This is a different Kansas team though; I do not expect it to be that easy this time around.
SOUTH REGION
Memphis, TN
7:27 tip time
2-Oklahoma Sooners vs 3-Syracuse Orange
No player has played better this tournament then Blake Griffin. In the first two games, he has scored 61 points and grabbed 30 rebounds. To offset that though, in my opinion there is no team in the country that is playing better basketball then Syracuse. Their only loss in the past month was against Louisville in the conference championship game, and that came after the team played a combined seven overtime periods the two days before. Can the Syracuse 2-3 zone contain or will Austin Johnson and Willie Warren make enough shots from the outside to give more room for Griffin to roam inside? Will the bigs from Syracuse, the three-headed monster of Arinze Onuaku, Rick Jackson and Kristof Ongenaet, be able to force Griffin into playing defense and possibly foul trouble? This game is the most intriguing game to me of all the Sweet 16 match-ups.
9:57 tip time
1-UNC Tarheels vs 4-Gozaga Bulldogs
Ty Lawson, bad toe and all, carried UNC past LSU last week, however will he be able to again? I think Gonzaga could be the type of team that gives UNC fits matching up with. Jeremy Pargo is going to play a very physical style, which will really force Lawson to put that bad toe to the test. If there is an upset in the round, this is my pick. That being said, we all know that UNC has the talent and ability to win this game by 25 and it would not surprise anyone.
PREDICTIONS:
THURSDAY
UCONN
Missouri
Pitt
Villanova
FRIDAY
Louisville
Kansas
Syracuse
UNC
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