3 Steps the ACC Can Take to Save Itself

Over the summer, USC and UCLA announced their plans to join the Big Ten. Since then, there have been rumors of mega-conferences and it has left conferences like the ACC, Pac-12 and Big XII scrambling to figure out what to do next to avoid being left in the dust by the SEC and Big Ten.

The BIG XII has now made a big move, announcing their new TV deal, a 6-year contract worth around $2.2B, or around $31M per school. That amount goes UP from their previous deal that included Texas and Oklahoma as members of the conference.

As a fan of a team in the ACC, it has been frustrating see moves being made by the SEC & Big Ten and deals by the Big XII get done, while the ACC sits around doing nothing. So, since the ACC leaders haven’t said much about their plans, I’ve decided to share mine for the conference moving forward.

The most important thing that the ACC needs to get done to stay relevant among the SEC and Big Ten, and possibly separate themselves from the Pac-12 & Big XII as the clear #3 conference is to get ESPN to renegotiate the conferences TV deal.  I realize that is easier said than done, but ESPN has invested A LOT in the ACC with the creation of the ACC Network and they don’t want to see the conference fall into the abyss.  So here are the three moves that ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips needs to make to save the ACC!

1) Move to 9 Conference Games

2) Get ESPN to re-work the conference Rights deal and share it with another network.

3) Add Notre Dame

The first one is simple, so we can tackle that one first. By moving to 9 nine conference games, this gives your TV partners more quality content. Live television, especially sporting events, is what draws the highest ratings nowadays. This means it makes them the most money. The more quality content to sell advertisements during, the more money they have available to pay the conference for their TV rights. More games mean more live content. More ACC games, also means less games vs Group of 5 or FCS teams. Adding one more conference game will draw more eyeballs.

With the conference moving away from divisions in 2023, playing an extra game also helps cycle every team to all of the other schools on a more regular basis and sets up for closer, more exciting races to get into the Top 2 spots to qualify for the championship game.

Now, the more complicated points.

Notre Dame will not join any conference if they don’t have to. Expanding the College Football Playoff to 12 makes it easier for Notre Dame to make the playoff, but the new format makes it more difficult for Notre Dame to have success in the playoff. The ACC can offer Notre Dame a solution. Notre Dame already plays 5 ACC opponents every year but are not considered members of the conference, therefore they cannot play in the conference championship game or earn a Top 4 seed in the new upcoming expanded playoff, which guarantees a BYE into the quarterfinals. The ACC should ask Notre Dame to play 7 ACC games a year instead of their current 5. In exchange, the ACC would allow Notre Dame a spot in the conference championship game if they finished in the top 2 in the conference based on win percentage. This could give Notre Dame a 13^th data point for the CFB Playoff Selection Committee, which they typically would not have. And it would give the Irish a way to earn a BYE and a Top 4 seed in the CFP. After Saturday's win over Clemson, Notre Dame has now won 27 regular season games in a row vs ACC opponents and hasn’t lost since November of 2017, when then #8 Miami beat #3 Notre Dame in Miami. The only ACC team to beat Notre Dame during this span is Clemson, who did it twice in postseason games, so you could see how this offer could be intriguing to the Irish.

Another reason that this deal would make sense to Notre Dame is because they get a full football share of the ACC TV Rights if they agree. Notre Dame has publicly said that they are hoping for more money from their next TV deal, their NBC deal expires after the 2024 season. Not that Notre Dame won’t get more from their next deal but giving them more from the ACC couldn’t hurt.

Speaking of NBC…

The ACC needs to get more of their games on networks that everyone can see. The ACC Network is nice and is finally available nearly nationwide. But with the ACC’s current deal with ESPN, a lot of content gets dumped onto ACCX, which is only available via streaming or to the regional networks of the teams playing. That is fine for most sports, but not football. Every ACC football game should be available on national television. This is where NBC and their partnership with Notre Dame comes into play to help all parties involved. NBC clearly wants to be a bigger part of the college football market. They just agreed to terms with the Big Ten to broadcast 1 game weekly in primetime. NBC likely will bid on at least some of the broadcast rights for the College Football Playoff when it expands. So, adding more college football content and another conference would make a lot of sense for the network. If ESPN allows the ACC to share their rights with another network, NBC should be the network that gets the call.

The ACC could offer NBC ~15 games per season to help their brand get off the ground, all while putting more ACC games in a national spotlight. A win-win for all parties involved. Notre Dame typically plays 7 games on NBC a season, out of a 13-week regular season schedule. The ACC could give NBC a lead-in to every Notre Dame broadcast with a unique 11AM kickoff. On Saturday’s that Notre Dame is not playing a home game, NBC could either schedule an ACC double-header or schedule their ACC game during their typical 2:30pm EST slot that Notre Dame plays in. 11AM kickoff give the ACC a 1-hour window that they are the only game in town, which would be a unique exposure for any conference. And because of the already existing relationship with ESPN, they could have live look-ins of that game during College GameDay, again giving the game and conference extra exposure.

The ACC Championship Game is broadcast annually on ESPN/ABC, which also helps the ACC in negotiating their new deal with ESPN. When Clemson and Notre Dame played in the ACC Championship Game during the 2020 COVID season, they drew nearly 10 million viewers, which was the highest of any conference championship game for that season. It was also nearly double the viewers that ESPN/ABC drew the year prior when Notre Dame wasn’t in the game. Considering the possibilities, ESPN would have to be crazy to not agree to renegotiate the ACC conference’s media rights deal if these other pieces were all in place.  More eyeballs equal more money and Notre Dame attracts a lot of eyeballs. Which means more eyeballs for ESPN and NBC equals more money for both the ACC and Notre Dame.

If Jim Phillips can do these 3 things, he can save the ACC.

Pitt Scheduling Philosophy Must Change

After Pitt was humiliated at home Saturday against Penn State, I saw a tweet that caught my attention.

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1038624820689285121

Pitt’s loss to Penn State means the Panthers have been in a conference the last 28 years & have never gone unbeaten in non-conference play

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) September 9, 2018

My 1^st instinct after reading this was to get defensive and point out that Pitt always plays a challenging non-conference schedule.  However I quickly thought about that, and asked, “why?”

Prior to the season, almost every media outlet ranked Pitt as having the toughest non-conference schedule in the country.  This year will be the 4^th straight season that they play two non-conference games against high-ranking Power 5 teams.  Again, this had me asking the simple question, “why?”

Why is Pitt scheduling like they are USC? 

Why is Pitt playing these games?

Pitt struggles enough to get bowl eligible most years, why are they challenging themselves so much in the non-conference?

Pitt needs a major adjustment to their scheduling philosophy.

Why not just schedule wins?

Look at both the 2019 & 2020 schedules.

2019
vs Delaware
vs Ohio
@ Penn State
vs Central Florida

2020
vs Miami (OH)
vs Richmond
@ Marshall
vs Notre Dame

These are the types of non-conference schedules Pitt should have every year. 

*3 home games and 1 road game.

*1 Power 5 team (or Notre Dame).

*Minimum 2 games that are almost guarantee wins.

A few years back, someone in the Pitt athletic department said that they would no longer schedule Group of 5 teams on the road.  I ask again, “why?”    If you can’t beat a MAC or C-USA team on the road, good luck in the ACC.  Plus, it is much more likely you beat those types of teams on the road as opposed to Iowa, Oklahoma State, or Penn State, all of whom Pitt have lost to in recent years.  The main goal should be winning football games.  Who cares if you play games against big-time programs if you can’t beat them?

Looking ahead at future schedules for Pitt, it should not be all that difficult to adjust the scheduling philosophy to help the program get more wins.  From 2021 to 2028 Pitt has already scheduled at least 1 Power 5 opponent (again, I am including Notre Dame in this group).  That means that Pitt should not be looking to add any more Power 5 opponents until 2029.  In some years they already have 2 games against Power 5 opponents.  The goal in those seasons is to schedule the other 2 non-conference games with the easiest possible opponent.  There is no sense in giving yourself a non-conference schedule that you could lose more games than you win.  Here are what the next 8 seasons look like as of now, with notes on how I would schedule the remaining games.

2021
@ Tennessee
With a road game and a Power 5 opponent already accounted for with this one game against Tennessee, Pitt should focus on scheduling three winnable home games.  I don’t love playing FCS teams, but I realize that it is a trend that isn’t going away any time soon, so I’d add one to the 2021 season.  With 2 spots remaining, I’d look to the MAC, AAC, C-USA or some of the lesser Independent teams for opponents.  You can typically get MAC opponents to play a road game, without a return game at their place, so that would certainly be in play for 2021.  I may also try to get a team like UMASS, Old Dominion, Charlotte, FIU or FAU to agree to a 3-game series with Pitt getting 2 home games out of the deal to just 1 road game.  All those schools, minus UMASS, are in locations in which Pitt has tried to make in-roads with recruiting.  Playing a game in those locations, is never a bad thing for recruiting.

2022
vs WVU
vs Tennessee
With two Power 5 teams already on the schedule, the remaining games should both be nearly guarantee wins.  If you play it right, the road game in 2022 will be part of the 2-1 series starting in 2021.  That would be a road game coming against a C-USA, AAC or an Independent team.  The final game would once again likely be against an FCS opponent.

2023
vs Cincinnati
@ WVU
@ Notre Dame
Only 1 game to schedule remaining for the 2023 season and it must be a home game against a very beatable opponent.  We can pencil in another FCS team for this spot.

2024
@ Cincinnati
vs WVU
With Cincinnati being on the road and WVU checking the Power 5 box, the final 2 games for 2024 should once again be winnable games at Heinz Field.  Ideally, the 3^rd game in the 3-game 2-for-1 series would be played in 2024 after taking a year off.  And yes, they 4^th would once again be an FCS opponent.

2025
@ WVU
vs Notre Dame
Once again, there are already two Power 5 games on the schedule for 2025, one of which is on the road, so the remaining games would both be home games against lesser opponents.  The options here would be a MAC team that would not require a return game (Ball State, Kent State) or possibly the start of a home-and-home series against an old Big East foe like UCONN or Temple, or trying to get another 3-game 2-for-1 series with previously mentioned teams.  And, of course an FCS opponent.

2026
@ Wisconsin
Wisconsin checks two boxes, road game and Power 5 opponent.  The remaining 3 games should all be winnable games at home.  Obviously, an FCS opponent is an easy choice.  A MAC opponent with no return game would make a lot of sense in 2026 as well.  The final game could be Home Game #2 of the 2025 2-for-1 deal or another lower level FBS school that would not require a return game (Liberty, Rice, Marshall).

2027
vs Wisconsin
The return game in the home-and home Wisconsin series gives Pitt a nice Power 5 home game and allows for a return road game in the suggested 2025 series (home-and-home w/UCONN or Temple OR the final game of the 2-for-1 deal).  Games 3 and 4 for 2027 would likely be another FCS opponent and another lesser FBS team that wouldn’t require a return game (MAC or others suggested for 2026).

2028
vs Notre Dame
With no other Power 5 teams on the future schedule after 2028, introducing another one here wouldn’t be an awful idea.  I would avoid upper-echelon teams like what we have seen recently and maybe take a step back in competition and go with teams like Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Rutgers, Cal, Oregon State.  We might still have a road return game you owe depending how 2025-27 played out, which is fine as well.  And as always, an FCS team will find a spot in this non-conference schedule as well.

With this philosophy in scheduling, Pitt fans still get to see some decent teams come to town for the non-conference each year to go along with the regular ACC foes like Miami, Virginia Tech and Syracuse.  The worst home non-conference schedule with this format would be 2021, but in that season, Pitt would get home ACC games against Clemson and Miami to offset the underwhelming non-conference schedule.

Remember, the goal is to win football games.  As a life long Pitt fan, I know I would much rather see them win 8, 9 or 10 games playing a non-conference schedule full of cupcakes as opposed to going 7-5 or 6-6 against a murderer’s row of teams in the non-conference.

Pitt Panthers Mid Season Report

We are now at the mid-way point in the college football season, so I wanted to go back and take a look at the 1^st 6 games for the Pitt Panthers.

OVERVIEW:
Pitt is 5-1 for the 1^st time since the 2009 season, when the Panthers started 9-1.  Of those 5 wins for Pitt, 3 of them have come against teams that beat them last year (Akron, Virginia, Georgia Tech).  They also have wins against Youngstown State, who they lost to the last time the two teams played in Paul Chryst’s debut and Virginia Tech, who was considered to be one of the two favorites in the ACC Coastal this season (Georgia Tech the other).  Pitt has played 4 of 6 games on the road, winning 3 of them.  The Panthers only loss has come to an undefeated Iowa team on the road in a game that ended on a 57-yard field goal to give the Hawkeyes a 27-24 victory.

The Panthers are 3-0 to start conference play, something that last happened in 2010 as a member of the Big East.  Pitt still has 5 ACC games remaining on the schedule, to go with a non-conference game against Notre Dame. 

OFFENSE:
The Pitt offense suffered a major loss in the 1^st half of the 1^st game of the season when they saw the reigning ACC Offensive Player of the Year, James Conner, go down with a season ending knee injury.  They have also seen their returning starter at quarterback, Chad Voytik, get replaced by graduate transfer Nate Peterman.  The offense has not been the same without these 2 players on the field.  It currently ranks 105^th in the nation in total offense, averaging 346 yards per game.  Last year the Panthers were 40^th in the country, averaging nearly 100 more yards per game.

Peterman offers a different style of play than Voytik.  Peterman has a bigger and better arm than Voytik, but really seemed to struggle grasping the system early on, making many fans, myself included, wonder why he was the choice over Voytik.  I think the biggest problem with the offense has come in the many differences between the Peterman and Voytik.  The thing that made Voytik so good last year was his running ability.  Last year he had 2 games in which he ran for over 100 yards.  Peterman isn’t that type of player.  He is a pocket passer, which Voytik is not.  Although both quarterbacks are learning a new system under new offensive coordinator Jim Chaney, this system is a much better fit for Peterman than Voytik.  Peterman has gotten better in each of his last 3 games as quarterback, with his 3 touchdown performance against Georgia Tech on Saturday being his best game of the year.

With Conner out for the year and a new quarterback at the helm, a lot of defensives have stacked the box to take the run away, while also trying to shutdown Tyler Boyd, thus forcing Peterman and the inexperienced wide receiving corp to beat them.  To this point nobody has been able to take Boyd out of the game, as he has 41 of the teams 91 receptions, despite being suspended for the season opener.  Also, the trio of Qadree Ollison, Chris James and Darrin Hall have been just good enough at running back to keep the running threat in play.

The play of the offensive line coming into the season was a question mark due to injuries.  Since then, the Panthers have stayed somewhat healthy and the unit as a whole has performed well.  Pitt has allowed just 14 sacks in 6 games this season and have averaged just over 5 negative plays per game on the offensive side of the ball.  Considering some of the more high profile type offenses in the country like, West Virginia, Boise State and Arizona State all average nearly double that, 5 isn’t all that bad.  Nationally that ranks around 50^th out of the 127 teams in college football this season.

Basically, the offense is a work in progress.  It has been just good enough to this point in the season to produce the results necessary for this team.  This is a young and inexperienced unit that will only get better the more they play together as a group.  That is a good thing for this Panther team.

DEFENSE:
When Pat Narduzzi came to Pitt, most people figured he would bring his tough, physical and stingy defense with him, they just didn’t think it would produce so quickly.  With a lot of the same players back from last year, the defensive side of the ball has put up considerably better numbers.  The Panthers are allowing 60 yards and 5 points less per game this season.  In just 6 games, they have also already surpassed their total sack numbers from last year (19 to 22).  Pitt is ranked in the top 20 national in 1^st Downs Allowed (6^th), Passing Yards Allowed (12^th), Sacks (3^rd), Tackles for Losses (19^th), Total Defense (17^th).

Two of the players this season that have helped the defense improve are freshman safety Jordan Whitehead, who leads the team in tackles and senior defensive lineman Ejuan Price, who has been a menace in opposing backfields, leading Pitt tackles for losses and 2^nd on the team in sacks.  Whitehead, a highly touted recruit last year, has come right in and contributed immediately.  Price, has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, but finally seems healthy and playing to his potential.

The Pitt defense has been what has kept the Panthers in games this season while the offense was trying to find its footing.  That is a complete role reversal of the two units from last year, when the Pitt offense had to outscore their opponents because their defense couldn’t stop anyone.

The one area that Pitt could certainly improve at on the defensive side of the ball is in the takeaway department.  Pitt has only forced 8 turnovers this season (2 fumbles, 6 interceptions).  The Panthers only forced 14 turnovers all of last season, so they are ahead of that pace, but that is still well below the national average.

This unit has been a pleasant surprise for the Panthers this season and they have needed it to be with the offense being sluggish at times.  The defense is playing fast and aggressive and the more success they have the more confidence the players will get.  The defense has been very good this season and should get even better as the season progresses.

SPECIAL TEAMS:
The Pitt Special Teams unit hasn’t been all that special this season.  While they have had their moments of greatness, they have been just average for the most part so far.  Pitt has scored 2 touchdowns on PT this year, a kick return for a score in the opener vs Youngstown State and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown at Iowa.  In the kicking game, although Chris Blewitt made a clutch 56-yard FG to win the game against Georgia Tech, he has just been okay overall this season, going just 6 of 9 in field goals.  He has made all 21 extra points, but if you are a scholarship kicker in division 1 football, you should make all your extra points.  The punting of Ryan Winslow has been good, but not great.  He has shown the ability to place the ball and have some touch punting inside the 20, but he hasn’t done it on a consistent basis.  In the return game, Pitt hasn’t been great on returns or on kick coverage.  I guess the best way you can look at it is that they are averaging about 7 yards more per kick return than allowed and almost 3 yards more per punt.  That net yardage can add up and shift field position, which is never a bad thing.  The Panthers have blocked 3 kicks this year, which is tied for 2^nd in the nation.  That is obviously pretty good.

For me the having an excellent Special Teams unit is a bonus.  Special Teams can be a game changer for you if you do things right.  At the same time, it can cost you a game if you do things poorly.  Pitt has done just enough on special teams to impact games for a positive, while not having their special teams cost them any games.

COACHING:
Another season, another coaching staff.  That is just the way things have gone at Pitt in the past 5 years or so.  The excitement that came in with Pat Narduzzi and his staff has certainly not worn off to this point.  One of the things that Narduzzi preached early on and has continued to talk about was changing the mindset of this team.  He wanted them to expect to win and be confident.  I feel that the Panthers have done that in every game this season.  In years past, Pitt would not have been 5-1 at this point.  They have only outscored their opponents by an average of 6 points, yet are still 5-1.  That means that they are winning close games.  They are winning in the 4^th quarter.  That has historically been when Pitt decided to fold.  Not this year.  I think the coaching staff is the reason.

LOOKING FORWARD:
Pitt has 6 games left beginning this Saturday at Syracuse.  After that, the Panthers leave Heinz Field just once, a road game against Duke.  That means Pitt gets 4 of their final 5 games at home.  If Pitt can get past Syracuse this week, they will be 6-1 with 5 of those 7 games on the road.  Coming home for that final stretch could be the difference for this team.  They will get North Carolina at home in a game that should greatly impact the ACC Coastal division.  With both undefeated in ACC play, the winner will be in the driver’s seat going into the final month of the season.  They also get Notre Dame at home.  The Irish have much more talent than Pitt this season, but that hasn’t stopped the Panthers in previous years against Notre Dame.  Pitt has won 2 of the last 3 at Heinz Field between these 2 teams and each of the last 6 meeting have been decided by a touchdown or less.

In the Panthers final 6 games they have 3 games in which they should win (Syracuse, Louisville, Miami), 2 games in which could go either way (UNC, Duke) and 1 in which they will be considered an underdog (Notre Dame).  That said, we know how Pitt works, they could go 1-5 with their lone win being against ND and I don’t know if I would be surprised.  Either way, it should be a fun final 6 games.