College Football Weekly Rant - Week 3

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT

The non-conference slate was fun, but here comes the conference play.  Sure, there are still some decent non-conference games to be played in the 2017 college football season, including this week, but Week 3 we begin to see some better conference games, with fewer high profile non-conference games on the schedule. 

With conference play coming full force in the final weeks of the month, Week 3 sees a lot more of those “buy” games on the slate to let teams get healthy.   The top payout this week is for Georgia State, who is being paid $1.2M to get blasted by Penn State under the lights of Beaver Stadium (but Penn State doesn’t have room for Pitt on their schedule annually…).

Some good conference games highlight the Week 3 schedule with Clemson @ Louisville being the premier game of the week.  The ACC was set up to grab all the eyes this weekend, but Hurricane Irma forced Miami and Florida State to move their annual showdown that was scheduled Saturday in Miami.  Tennessee and Florida re-new their rivalry in Gainesville as well this week.  Another conference game I am looking forward to on Saturday night is one flying under the radar in my mind.  LSU and their new look offense going to Starkville to take on the high-powered Mississippi State offense.

The non-conference schedule isn’t completely barren this week, but just not as good as the first two weeks of the season.  There are still a bunch of Power 5 match-ups this Saturday.  The biggest of those, name wise is Texas traveling to Southern Cal to take on the Trojans in a rematch of the epic 2005 National Championship game.  USC looks like they might contend for a title this year, but unfortunately Texas is not holding up their end of the deal for this re-match, as they are not close to that level.  There are a few other games this weekend that I am sure will peak the interest of the local fanbases, but nothing like what we saw last week, with 3 fantastic primetime non-conference games.

WHAT I LEARNED IN WEEK TWO

*Bob Stoops Left Oklahoma in Good Hands.  It helps to inherit a quarterback like Baker Mayfield when you are a young, first time head coach like Lincoln Riley, but he deserves some credit too.  He took an Oklahoma team that lost tons of playmakers last season, into a hostile environment and won at #2 Ohio State.  There is obviously more to being a head coach than just being on the sidelines in the fall.  We will see how Riley does in recruiting and what happens when he suffers his first loss, but through 2 weeks he has certainly passed every test with flying colors.

*Baker Mayfield Is Everything You Want In a College QB.  This kids just oozes confidence.  He went out and had a career game in an historic venue against a perennial power, then to top it off, he plants the OU flag in the 50-yard line of the Horseshoe.  Michigan fans are so envious.  The only thing Mayfield did wrong was apologize for his acts the next day.   Football teams need badass leaders that give zero F’s, Mayfield is just that, even if he had to go out later and be PC and apologize.  He plays with passion and fire and it showed on the field during and after the game in Columbus.  By the way, that win improved Mayfield to 10-0 on the road as a starter, pretty good!

*Is It Time For Buckeye Fans To Panic?  To be fair, Ohio state has been ravaged by the NFL Draft recently, specifically their secondary, but they also recruit at a VERY high level.  The Buckeyes have now let up 420 yards through the air in back-to-back games and rank dead last in the nation in pass defense.  Things do get easier this week as Army comes to town.  Army is 2-0, but has only completed 2 passes in those 2 wins, totaling 17 yards.  Luckily for Ohio State, they won’t face another formidable passing attack until October 28^th, when Trace McSorely and the Penn State Nittany Lions looks to make it two straight against the Buckeyes.

*Clemson Has The Defense To Defend Their Title.  Can we please stop declaring Auburn and their offense a flop this season?  Jarrett Stidham is a very good young QB, made to play in Gus Malhazn’s offense.  They just so happened to play against likely the best defense in the country in Week 2.  Auburn will be fine, but more importantly, Clemson is truly legit.  The Tigers have the best D-line in the nation, which makes this week’s match-up on the road against the reigning Heisman Trophy winner even more intriguing.  If Clemson can leave Louisville with a win Saturday night however, it would put the Tigers in the driver’s seat in the ACC, with an eye on heading back to the College Football Playoff.

*Penn State Is Not Currently Worthy of Their #4 Ranking.  Don’t get me wrong, the Nittany Lions are a very talented team and they did not get their groove last year until mid-October, but I was not impressed with their performance Saturday against Pitt.  Penn State has superior talent at nearly every position in that match-up, yet Pitt dominated the play for long stretches of the game.  I still fully expect Penn State to make a run to repeat as Big Ten Champs, but they will need to improve big time for that to happen.

*USC Will Win This Year Behind Ronald Jones, NOT Sam Darnold.  I still think Darnold might be the best NFL prospect in college football this year, but I also think that he lost too much at the WR position to duplicate his incredible 2016 season.  Something the Trojans didn’t lose however is Ronald Jones and his offensive line.  In two games this season, Jones has run for 275 and 5 scores on 41 carries.  USC also has freshman Stephen Carr to spell Jones.  Carr has run for 188 and 2 scores as a back-up.  Darnold has been good in the 2 USC wins as well, but not spectacular.  The difference is that this year he doesn’t need to be spectacular for the Trojans to win, he needs to rely on his running game.

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK THREE

*Show Me Games.  There are a few teams out there, that have lofty rankings, but they haven’t proved themselves on the field yet.  #9 Oklahoma State played Tulsa and South Alabama their first two games of the season.  A road trip to Pittsburgh, might not seem like much, but it will be by far the Cowboys toughest test to this point, before beginning Big XII play next week.  #12 LSU has played BYU in New Orleans and Chattanooga, this week they start SEC play at night on the road.  Mississippi State and QB Nick Fitzgerald could create problems for LSU, if that happens can the LSU offense keep pace with the Bulldogs?  #18 Kansas State is another team that I want to believe in to compete in the Big XII, but I just don’t know yet.  Vanderbilt won’t beat the stiffest of test, but they will be vastly better than anyone the Wildcats have beat up on so far to this point.

*Heisman vs Defending Champ.  Lamar Jackson is playing like he did last year at this time when he jumped out to such a big Heisman lead, that nobody could catch him, despite he and the Cardinals struggling down the stretch.  This week he faces off against the defending National Champs, that beat him last year with a defensive stop inside the 10 yard line in the final minutes of play.  The Clemson defense in even better this year, but by the looks of it Jackson might be too.  To top it off, thanks to the Deondre Francois injury at Florida State, the winner not only gets bragging rights in this game, but also an inside track at the ACC Atlantic Title.

*Bounce Back Games.  With all the big games last weeks, we had lots of ranked teams lose.  This week will give us a chance to see how they respond to their 1^st loss of the season.  Notre Dame lost at home to Georgia last week, Saturday they go to Boston College.  The Eagles aren’t a great team, but always play ND tough.  The defense will challenge an O-line that struggled last week.  Could this be a make or break game for Brian Kelly?  Stanford gave up over 300 yards on the ground last week in their loss to USC.  This week they go to San Diego State, to face the Aztec and running back Rashaad Penny, who leads the nation in yards per game.

A GAMBLING EYE

*Iowa State (-10.5, O/U 63) @ Akron – Matt Campbell has the Cyclones offense rolling in year 2.  I am not worried about them scoring points, they have scored 83 points in their 1^st 2 games.  Akron gave up 52 to the only FBS opponent they have seen this year. 

*UCLA (-3.5, O/U 73) @ Memphis – UCLA is travelling across the country to play a 9AM game on their body clocks.  Memphis is a team that can score too.  The Tigers will play physical and try to pound the ball.  They ran for 319 yards in their only game this season.  UCLA has allowed an average of 331.5 yards on the ground this season.  Josh Rosen and the Bruin offense should be able to move the ball, it will be interesting to see how sharp they are with such an early start time.

*Baylor (+14.5, O/U 59) @ Duke – Baylor has been dreadful this season, losing to FCS Liberty in Week 1, then to only scoring 10 in a loss to UTSA last week.  The Bears step up in competition, taking on their first Power 5 opponent of the year.  The Blue Devils in turn will be playing their 2^nd straight P5 opponent.  The Blue Devils have been one of the surprises in the ACC through 2 weeks. QB Daniel Jones has taken strides from last year and Duke has scored 101 points in two games this year, including 41 on a veteran Northwestern team.

*Tennessee (+4.5, O/U 49) @ Florida – The Gators have only played 1 game this season and it was awful against Michigan.  They have spent the last week trying to recover from Hurricane Irma.  It is tough to say if the Gators will come on playing for the city and state, or come out exhausted and distracted.  Tennessee at least won their opener against a P5 school (Georgia Tech), but the defensive issues that hurt the Vols towards the end of last year, have shown up again this year through 2 weeks.

*LSU (-7.5, O/U 53) @ Mississippi State – This number is interesting to me.  LSU seems like the better team, but for a team like LSU who has struggled to score over the years to be giving more than a touchdown to a team that has had an explosive offense seems odd.  That extra half a point could be the factor in this game.

*Kansas State (-4, O/U 50) @ Vanderbilt – Kansas State is ranked 18^th in the country.  Vanderbilt is, well Vanderbilt.  This is another game that seems like the experts know something I don’t.

PLAYOFF PICKS

It is never too early to start projecting the playoff.

1. Alabama – Who in the SEC is going to beat them this year?

2. Oklahoma State – I’m looking forward to seeing the Cowboys in person Saturday.  Despite the Sooners performance last week, I still believe Ok State is the best team in the Big XII.

3. Clemson – Defense wins championships.  Clemson has the best defense in the country.

4. USC – The Trojans still have question marks, but when you have a backfield of Darnold and Jones it makes life much easier.

NEXT UP:

Oklahoma – They proved everything they needed to with their road win in Columbus, now they just need to avoid the bad loss that Bob Stoops teams were so accustomed to.

Michigan – This was supposed to be a re-build year for the Wolverine, but they haven’t missed a step.  Saturday worried me a bit, with them playing down to the level of their opponent.  Air Force comes to town this week in the final non-conference game.  Then Big Ten play begins and right now they are playing as good as any team in the conference.

That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote-control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!

College Football Weekly Rant - Week 2

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT

One week of the college football season in the books, and it did not disappoint.

Have I mentioned how much I love teams going out and challenging themselves in the non-conference?  In the Opening Week of the season we had neutral site games between Alabama and Florida State, Michigan and Florida, West Virginia and Virginia Tech as well as Tennessee and Georgia Tech.  We were also treated to Maryland at Texas and Texas A&M in the Rose Bowl against UCLA in other Power 5 match-ups to open the season.   The fun part about those games is that none of them disappointed.  Maybe the competitiveness of the games may not have been what everyone hoped for in some of them, but all of them helped us learn a little more about the teams involved and give us a better forecast of what we might be able to expect from them this season.

The big game last week was obviously #1 Alabama vs # Florida State.  The final score, 24-7, was not as telling as one would think.  Alabama dominated in one aspect of the game, Special Teams, and that was the difference.  Both defenses dominated for stretches, long stretches as a matter of fact.  Both offenses struggled to get the ball to their play makers in space.  As for Special Teams, Alabama blocked a punt and a FG, Florida State also fumbled a kickoff.  All 3 of those plays made a difference on the scoreboard.  The blocked FG just before the end of the 1^st half, allowed the Crimson Tide to hold a 10-7 lead at the break.  The blocked punt in the 3^rd quarter led to 3 more points for Alabama.  FSU then fumbled the ensuing kickoff, which Bama turned into 8 (touchdown + 2pt conversion) 1 play later.  Late in the game came the blow that most people are taking away from the game, when FSU QB Deondre Francois was sacked from behind injuring his knee.  After the game, it was discovered that Francois would be out the rest of the year with an MCL tear in that knee.

Not to kick a man when he is down, but I don’t see this as big of a loss as others appear to, simply because I have never been a huge fan of Francois.  This Florida State team was built around a fierce defense and a safe QB.  That can still be the recipe for the Noles success behind freshman QB James Blackman, who probably has a higher ceiling than Francois when you really break it down.  Getting reps in this week vs LA-Monroe would have been nice for Blackman, but that game has been cancelled due to Hurricane Irma.  Blackman will now get his 1^st career start again rival Miami in Week 3. 

As for Alabama, they are good.  Shocking, I know!  However, I’ll stay off the hype train for at least a few weeks more.  The Alabama offense was very unimpressive against Florida State.  Yes, that could possibly be the best defense that Bama faces this year, but I still expected more growth from QB Jalen Hurts between his freshman and sophomore years.  Hurts completed just 10 passes in the game for 96 yards, 53 of which came on 1 play. 

Alabama’s five scoring drives looked like this:
9 plays, 44 yards = FG
5 plays, 85 yards = 53-yard TD pass
4 plays, -1 yard = FG
1 play, 11 yards = TD
6 plays, 16 yards = FG

Not all that impressive.  Alabama is good, but the offense needs to be much better if they want to be great.

WHAT ELSE I LEARNED IN WEEK ONE

*Michigan is in reload mode, not rebuild:  The Wolverine defense looked big and fast against the over-matched Gators.  The offense is still a work in progress, but with nearly 6 weeks before their next big challenge (at Penn State) the young team will have plenty of time to grow.

*Speaking of that Florida offense, it stinks:  The Gators had a 3-man QB race in camp and apparently still have no QB’s.  Could be another long season for the Jim McElwain and the Gators.

*The Big Ten East had a nice opening weekend:  Maryland was the surprise contributor there, with a 51-41 win over Texas, ruining the debut of new Longhorn Head Coach Tom Herman.  Rutgers didn’t look awful against Pac-12 North favorite Washington.  Indiana show signs of promise in their loss to Ohio State.  Michigan State and Penn State each won easily over their MAC opponents.

*Let's not hand the Heisman Trophy over to Sam Darnold just yet:  Darnold spent Week 1 doing his best impression of other recent USC QB after being thrown into the spotlight, Darnold opened the season throwing 2 INT’s and zero touchdowns in the Trojans win over Western Michigan. 

*West Virginia is going to score points this season:  They only scored 24 in their opening loss to Virginia Tech, but they put up over 600 yards of offense, which doesn’t happen every day against a Bud Foster led defense.  That point total is sure to go up once they get into conference play.

*Welcome to the spotlight Josh Jackson and TaQuon Marshall:  Jackson the freshman QB from Virginia Tech had 336 yards of offense in the game (235 and 1 TD passing, 101 and 1 TD running).  Marshall a junior QB for Georgia Tech accounted for 369 yards of offense including 249 and 5 touchdowns on the ground.  These two dynamic QB’s should make the wide-open ACC Coastal division even more interesting.

*UCLA is awful and Texas A&M is great:  In the 1^st half of football games.

*Texas A&M is awful and UCLA is great:  In the 2^nd half of football games.

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK TWO

*More big non-conference games:  After the opening weekend games that I mentioned earlier, it doesn’t slow down this week.  We get even more Power 5 vs Power 5 games this week.  The Primetime Line-Up is outstanding, with 3 games featuring Top 25 matchups.  Auburn @ Clemson (7pm, ESPN), Oklahoma @ Ohio State (7:30, ABC), Georgia @ Notre Dame (7:30, NBC).  The afternoon slate isn’t as good, but still some fun games.  Pitt @ Penn State, Iowa @ Iowa State, Northwestern @ Duke (The Education Bowl), TCU @ Arkansas, Indiana @ Virginia, Nebraska @ Oregon.

*A big non-conference game too:  Although the ACC gets underway with Louisville @ UNC and Wake Forest @ Boston College, the conference opener sure to have everyone’s attention is Stanford @ USC.  Two of the favorites in the PAC-12 face off in Week 2.  Earlier enough in the season for the loser to rebound, but the winner immediately becomes the conference favorite.  USC struggled stopping the Western Michigan running attack last week.  Stanford wins with defense and running the ball. 

*Great late night watching this Saturday:  Not to single out just those late west coast starts, because there really are good games up and down the schedule this week starting at noon all the way through the final game (San Diego State @ Arizona State, 11pm kickoff), but I always enjoy getting my last fix of college football in with good games.  This week we get some off the radar good matchups.  After the primetime schedule that will test the batteries on your remote control, we have five outstanding late night games kicking off after 10pm EST.  Minnesota @ Oregon State (10pm FS1), The Holy War between BYU and Utah (10:15, ESPN2), Boise State @ Washington State (10:30, ESPN), Houston @ Arizona (10:30, ESPNU) and the aforementioned SDSU/ASU game which is on the PAC12 Network.

A GAMBLING EYE

*Cincinnati (+35) @ Michigan – This might seem crazy but, I don’t think 35 is enough points.  Cincinnati struggled offensively against Austin Peay in their opener, my guess is that Michigan will be slightly tougher than AP.  You also must consider the Asshole Factor involved when giving up this many point, and Jim Harbaugh scores through the roof in that category.  Harbaugh has never shied away from running up the score, and this one would be against long-time Ohio State assistant Luke Fickell in his 1^st year at Cincinnati.

*Louisville (-10) @ North Carolina – Something seems off on this line.  North Carolina just lost to a putrid Cal team at home last week, now they are facing the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in Lamar Jackson who accounted for nearly 500 yards by himself last week.  On the scoreboard Louisville let Purdue hang around last week, but the Cardinals also fumbled twice inside the Purdue 2-yard line. Converting those two opportunities puts the game away early and could have turned that game into a rout.

*Buffalo (+16.5) @ Army – The last time that Army was this much of a favorite was in Germany 70+ years ago.  Army ran for over 500 yards last week against Fordham.  Yes, Buffalo is a step up in competition over Fordham, but it might not be as big of a step as you think.

*Indiana (-3) @ Virginia – I saw nothing from Virginia last week against William & Mary that lead me to believe that this game should be anything less than a touchdown spread in favor of Indiana.  The Hoosier hung with Ohio State for the 1^st 40 minutes of their game with the Buckeyes, only to let a few big plays break the game open.  UVA doesn’t have the players that tOSU does.  Indiana should be able to score in bunches against the Cavaliers and I don’t think UVA has the fire power to do the same.

*Pitt (+21.5) @ Penn State – I can’t speak rationally about this game due to my obvious bias, I just think 21.5 is a lot of points in a game between rivals.

*Nebraska (+13.5) @ Oregon – Nebraska gave up nearly 500 yards of offense and was outgained by Arkansas State last week.  Good luck stopping Royce Freeman and the Ducks.  Freeman finally seems healthy after two straight years battling injuries.  When healthy he is up there with Barkley and Guice as one of the best RB’s in the nation.  He ran for 150 and 4 scores last week.  I think he has another big week again the Cornhuskers shaky defense.

*Georgia (+4) @ Notre Dame – Georgia is breaking in a new QB after their starter was injured in their Week 1 win over Ap State, but call me crazy, I’m just not buying into this version of Brian Kelly’s squad just yet.  I think ND showed some promise with their dominating win over Temple, especially how they ran the ball, but Georgia will certainly present a tougher challenge and their defense looked very good last week.

*Stanford (+6) @ USC – The Trojans struggled mightily stopping the rushing attack from Western Michigan last week, now they face a much stiffer test in that area in Stanford.  The Broncos ran for 263 on the ground at a 5.5 average.  Stanford ran for 287 in their opener against Rice, with Bryce Love accounting for 180 on just 13 carries.

PLAYOFF PICKS

It is never too early to start projecting the playoff.

1. Alabama – Still not sold on them as the best team in the country, but who on their schedule is going to knock them off?

2. Ohio State – This week will be the Buckeyes toughest test of the season.  Get past Oklahoma and just don’t stumble up in Big Ten play.

3. Oklahoma State – They have the best offense in the country.  If the defense isn’t awful they should reach the Big XII Championship game with 1 loss, if that.

4. Clemson – The Tigers benefit the most from the Francois injury.  They should be favored in every game they play this year now.  They did look good last week, but it was Kent State.  We will know much more about them around 11:30 Saturday night.

NEXT FOUR:

USC – I have my concerns with the Trojans, but that doesn’t discount their talent.  Saturday will be their 1^st of many opportunities to make me a believer.

Stanford – I think I am higher on Stanford than most, but that is mainly due to their style of play and their coach.  They still have a question mark at QB, but Saturday should be a nice test for Keller Chryst as he continues to develop.

Oklahoma – Saturday will be Lincoln Riley’s 1^st test as a head coach.  The Sooners can afford to lose in Columbus, if they can then run through the Big XII unbeaten.  That would have to include wins in Stillwater for Bedlam, as well as, possibly beating the Cowboys a 2^nd time in a month in the return of the Big Ten Championship Game.

Wisconsin – Do I think Wisconsin is one of the best 8 teams in the country? NO.  Do I see them as having the make-up and more importantly the schedule to get them into the playoff conversation? YES.  The Badgers have a massive O-line, a stable of running backs and stingy defense, to go a long with a schedule that might be one of the easiest to navigate for a contender this year.  They miss Penn State and Ohio State.  They host Michigan, one week before the Wolverines biggest game of the season.

That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!