GM Kevin Reitmeyer, Year 5

Now that the Pirates 11-game win streak has ended and the team (and their fanbase) has fallen back to reality, let talk about how they should approach the trade deadline.

For each of the last 4 seasons I have suggested moves for Neal Huntington to make at the MLB trade deadline.

2014:
http://thereitmeyerrant.blogspot.com/2014/07/to-trade-or-not-to-trade-that-is-neal.html

2015:
http://thereitmeyerrant.blogspot.com/2015/07/3-trades-neal-huntington-should.html

2016:
http://thereitmeyerrant.blogspot.com/2016/06/time-to-trade.html

2017:
http://thereitmeyerrant.blogspot.com/2017/05/hey-pirates-3-strikes-and-youre-out.html

http://thereitmeyerrant.blogspot.com/2017/07/general-manager-kevin-reitmeyer.html

Each of the last 4 years Huntington has ignored my suggestions and now the Pirates organization is a complete mess.  You connect the dots…

Maybe he learns in Year 5.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are close to being contenders.  They have a very nice young core, with Marte, Polanco, Bell, Moran, Diaz and Meadows in the field.  This is the core you build around.  But they need more.  They don’t need a A-ball prospect that will be good in 2022.  This team is close, but they just aren’t ready this year.  If Huntington plays his hand right however, they could be in 2019.

The Pirates should not be buyers this season.  They need to sell and the sooner the better.  The Pirates have assets.  They don’t have the typical trade deadline, rental player assets, but they have assets.  They have controllable assets.  The kinds of assets that Neal Huntington LOVES to collect, so asking him to part with these assets is an uphill battle.

The Pirates do have a few of those “rental player” types, but nothing that is going to bring back any type of real return.  Josh Harrison’s trade value peaked early last season.  Harrison not being able to stay healthy has completely drained any value he had before he demanded a trade after Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole were traded.  Francisco Cervelli now has ZERO trade value due to his concussion problem.  Those are two guys that Huntington would have been targeting as possible trade chips at the beginning of the season.  Jordy Mercer and David Freese won’t get you much except a smaller payroll.  Ivan Nova, with another year left on his contract, will get you decent return, but nothing spectacular.

That brings us to the very intriguing, controllable assets I referred to earlier, Corey Dickerson and Filipe Vazquez.

Dickerson is having one of the best years of his young career this season with the Pirates with a 318/351/517.  He is currently under contract for the remainder of the 2018 season, with 2019 being his final year of arbitration.  Dickerson will turn 30 during the 2019 season.  Huntington acquired Dickerson in a salary dump trade of Daniel Hudson, so he is already playing with house money.  Now is his chance to cash in.  You won’t get a huge return for Dickerson, but you could get some MLB ready talent.

Vazquez is the golden goose in the organization.  Just days after trading away Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole, the team announced Vazquez’s new deal and said that they would build around their young closer.  The deal that he signed was an extremely team friendly deal.  Vazquez is in Year 1 of a 4-year deal paying him a total of $22M dollars.  Mark Melancon, the player the Pirates traded to the Nationals for Vazquez, is making $20M THIS YEAR!  At just $3M this year, Vazquez is the 20^th highest paid Closer in baseball.  A player of Vazquez’s caliber, with his contract would pull multiple top-level prospects from any organization that bids for him. 

“Ugh more prospects!?!?”  I can hear the complaints now.  But again, this is where Huntington must think outside his incredible small box that he works out of and be creative.

If the Pirates were to deal Vazquez, Dickerson & Nova (the only 3 with any real value) by the end of the weekend, they would then have 2 days to flip the prospects they get in these deals for MLB level talent.

A report Thursday night from Ken Rosenthal had the Texas Rangers considering four Pirate prospects, RHP Tyler Eppers, RHP Dovydas Neverauskas, SS Kevin Newman & OF Jordan Luplow as the key piece in a deal for the current Rangers closer Keone Kela. 

Among names #Rangers are considering from #Pirates in Keone Kela discussions, per sources: RHP Tyler Eppler, OF Jordan Luplow, SS Kevin Newman, RHP Dovydas Neverauskas. All are at Triple A. Newman is team’s No. 8 prospect, per @MLBPipeline, Luplow No. 22.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 26, 2018

If I am Neal Huntington, I do it.  Do it, regardless of which of those 4 the Rangers want.  And the moment the ink is dry on that deal, call the Braves and dangle Vazquez.  The Braves closer, Arodys Vizcaino last recorded a save on June 17^th, since then he has pitched just 3 times and has landed himself on the DL.  Since June 17^th, the Braves are 11-16 and have fallen out of 1^st place.  You think they might be in the need of a closer?  Vizcaino will be heading into this final season of arbitration this year.  Acquiring Vazquez not only makes sense now, but for the future too.  Oh and did I mention that the Braves have one of the best farm systems in baseball?

According to MLB.com Prospect Watch the Braves have 8 of the Top 100 prospects in baseball.  That is 2^nd only to the San Diego Padres.  Best of all for the Pirates is that the majority of these prospects are MLB ready.  6 of those 8 prospects are pitchers, with 7 of the 8 expected to be in the Majors by the end of the 2019 season.  The Braves farm system is deep too.  It doesn’t stop at those 8 players, they have plenty of depth, especially at the pitcher position.  That means they can’t possibly keep all of them and they are likely to move them. 

After the Pirates pick through the Braves farm system for some guys that can contribute immediately for the Pirates, they then turn around and call the Tampa Bay Rays.  Chris Archer is the target here.  Archer is a guy that the Pirates have liked for a long time, but the asking price has always been too high for Huntington.  Now though, with the current Pirates farm system and the return he has gotten from Dickerson, Nova and Vazquez, Huntington finally has the prospects that the Rays would desire (and the asking price has come down since he is signed his 6-year deal in 2014).  Archer is controllable for the next 3 seasons at a total of $27.66M.  The Pirates signed Ivan Nova to a 3/$26M deal before the 2017 season, so those contracts are a wash.  The difference is that Archer is a better pitcher than Nova in almost every facet of the game, and Archer is younger than Nova.

By making these moves, you are now looking at an improved rotation that would look something like Taillon, Archer, Musgrove, Williams & Kingham/Keller (or Braves prospects) for the 2019 season.  You then can finally move Chad Kuhl to the bullpen where he belongs, joining Steven Brault and Tyler Glasnow.  If you are able to move Harrison and Mercer, you then have the ability to bring up Kevin Kramer and Kevin Newman (if not traded for Kela) to get Major League AB’s for the last 2 months of the season.  Trading Dickerson also allows Austin Meadows to truly become an everyday outfielder.

There you have it.  Sell today, win tomorrow.  I am sure Huntington will ignore me for the 5^th straight season, but at least I can say I tried.

General Manager Kevin Reitmeyer

It is time to play General Manager For A Day with the Pirates again, as we lead up to the MLB Trade Deadline.

As always, we have to decide where the Pirates are, and if they should be Buyers or Sellers at the deadline.  That one is pretty easy.  They Pirates should be Sellers.  I keep seeing columnist writing that the Pirates should go for it this year.  Radio personalities are advocating that the Pirates push their chips into the middle and go after a weak NL Central division this year.  Let’s slow down…

The Pirates are 42-47, 7 GB in the division and according to Fangraphs have a 4.2% chance of winning the NL Central this year.  So, although the Pirates technically have a shot, there was nothing that I saw from there play in the 1^st half of the season that makes me believe they can win the division.  People claiming that the NL Central is weak and very winnable, well Milwaukee is in 1^st place with a .549 winning percentage at 50-41, that isn’t all that terrible.  If that W% were to play out the rest of the season the NL Central Champ would have 89 wins.  Not too shabby.  Just to give you an idea, the Pirates would need to go 47-26 in the 2^nd half to reach 89 wins.  Are you still a Buyer?  Didn’t think so.

So, now that it is clear that the Pirates are Sellers this deadline, let’s have some fun.

To be clear, I really like the core of this Pirates team.  I think they had a ton of bad luck this year already and if it hadn’t been for the Kang DUI, Marte PED’s and the Tailion cancer, the Pirates could have a real shot at making a nice post season run.  The Pirates could trade away a few pieces and build around the core, much like they did last year.  This would allow them to keep competing without a huge dropoff, but it also probably doesn’t give you enough return to make a giant impact either.  These moves would be simple ones.  Mainly just moving guys with expiring deals (Watson, Nicasio, Jaso) awful contracts that you might get a team to eat (Hudson, Cervelli), or a player that you feel is at absolute peak value (Harrison).  You likely won’t get a ton back in return for these guys (except maybe Harrison), but since you will be losing them in the offseason, you might as well get something.

The Pirates also could just blow things up, knowing that the do have a nice young nucleus and with the right pieces could be very competitive soon, if they are able to make the right deals.

That’s where General Manager Kevin Reitmeyer comes in.

I see 3 moves the Pirates should make if they are available to them.  All 3 of these moves are completely fabricated by yours truly.  I honestly believe that all 3 deals are fair and equal for both sides.

NEW YORK YANKEES:
Pirates trade:
SP – Gerrit Cole
RP – Juan Nicasio
3^rd – David Freese
SS Prospect- Kevin Newman (#89 in Baseball America’s Midseason Top 100)

Yankees Trade:
SS – Gleyber Torres (#3 in BA Top 100) – Tommy John surgery in June will keep him out til mid-2018.
OF – Clint Frazier (#49) – Just called to MLB on July 1^st.  Batting 292 with 1 double, 2 triples and 3 HR in 7 Games with NYY.
SP – Justus Sheffield (#7 LHP prospect according to MLB Pipeline). Currently in AA, scheduled to make MLB debut during 2018 season. Potential to be a 2-3 Starter.
RP – Domingo Acevedo – Lower level prospect in Yankees organization. Very raw, but throws gas.  Currently a starter, but forecasts to be a back-end RP.  Throws 100 regularly and has been known to hit 103 on the gun.  Projected 2018 MLB debut.

The Yankees are desperately looking to upgrade their starting rotation and they want a guy that they would have future control over.  Gerrit Cole does both, having 2 ½ years remaining on his contract.  Juan Nicasio gives the Yankees a big upgrade to their bullpen as they have struggled to get the ball to their 2 dominant back-end relivers.  The Yankees acquired Garrett Cooper from Milwaukee on Thursday, but he looks to be more of a September call-up type and a future possibility for the team.  If they want to win now, they are still in need of a 1^st baseman.  David Freese is a 3^rd baseman, that can play 1^st base.  The Yankees have a major need at 1^st base.  They have had the least productive 1^st base bat of any team in the Majors this season.  Kevin Newman helps replenish the farm system at SS, after giving up their top prospect.

For the Pirates, this would be a haul, but one that is very realistic after seeing what Jose Quintana brought back for the White Sox on Thursday.  Clint Frazier gives the Pirates a solid OF bat for if and when McCutchen leaves.  It also gives them flexibility with Gregory Polanco who has continued to struggle.  Torres, becomes your everyday SS once healthy and replaces Mercer who will be in his final year of his contract in 2018.  Sheffield and Acevedo are arms any organization would love to have in their system.

BOSTON RED SOX:
Pirates Trade:
2^nd – Josh Harrison
RP – Tony Watson

Red Sox Trade:
SP- Jay Groome (#87 in BA Top 100, #2 LHP in MLB Pipeline) – Young but a monster of a man.  Just 18 years old (1^st RD 2016), he is 6’6, 220lbs.  Already touched 97 mph, and will probably improve on that as he gets stronger.  Not expected in the MLB until 2019-20.

The Red Sox need another left-handed arm in their bullpen and even though Watson has not been good, he would still be a really good option considering what Boston is currently working with.  The Red Sox are also seeking help at 3^rd base, which is why Harrison makes sense.  Harrison’s versatility will help find a spot for him over the final 3 years of his contract as well.  The Red Sox top prospect, Rafael Devers, will likely take over the Hot Corner for Boston next April.

LA DODGERS:
Pirates Trade:
OF – Starling Marte
RP – Daniel Hudson

Dodgers Trade:
2^nd – Willie Calhoun (#74 on BA Top 100, #4 prospect in LA organization) – Calhoun is a power hitting 2^nd baseman, that is MLB ready.

The Dodgers need outfield help and Marte gives them a young player with team-friendly contract control.  He would also immediately be the team’s best defensive outfielder.  Marte would help stabilze a rotating door in the Dodger outfield that has already seen 10 different players man the outfield in their first 90 games this season.  Despite having the best ERA of all bullpens in the NL this season, like all other contenders, the Dodgers believe you can never have too many arms in that area.  The Dodgers have already been looking to add to the bullpen.  Hudson would be someone that could help them get the ball to Kenley Jansen.

With Calhoun MLB ready, the Dodgers might not be willing to part with him on this exchange.  The Pirates may have to pay some of the future salary of Hudson (owed $5.5M in 2018), but it would be worth it if you are the Pirates.

I would also not rule out the idea of moving Cervelli to a team like Arizona, who is in need of a catcher badly.  This would get the Pirates out of the awful contract they gave him last offseason, which he will still be owed $22M on over the next 2 seasons.  The Diamondbacks farm system is one of the worst in baseball, so this would likely have to be just a complete salary dump.

Making these moves would obviously put up the White Flag on the 2017 season, but they aren’t winning anyway this year.  The faster the Pirates realize that the better.  The remaining 2 months of the 2017 season become a Spring Training of sorts, a chance for the many question marks in the organization to prove themselves.  The Pirates should be creative with how they use their roster (crazy concept for this organization, I know).  Steven Brault should be in the rotation, maybe Tyler Glasnow gets another shot too.  Maybe even Huntington’s man-crush, Drew Hutchison.  Nick Kingham should probably be ready for a few starts as well come September.  Heck, run a 6-man rotation the last few months.  Use that 10-Day DL to your advantage and just rotate pitchers through it giving everyone some extra rest down the stretch.

 

As for the field, bring up Austin Meadows, let’s see what he can do.  Adam Frazier and Max Moroff (even Chris Bostick and Eric Wood), get to know 3^rd base.  If you are going to help the 2018 team, it will have to be at that spot.

I know that most Pirate fans don’t like the idea of a “rebuild” but I don’t see these moves as being that.  With the pieces they would acquire from these trades, the Pirates would be able to put a very competitive line-up on the field in 2018.  Who knows, maybe they surprise some people like the Brewers have done this year or the Astros did in 2015.  These moves also extend the window for the Pirates, which many thought would be closing as McCutchen’s contract comes up and Cole nears Free Agency.

Keep a competitive team on the field, while stock-piling prospects to promise a bright future AND cutting salary... Sounds like a win-win for the fans and ownership!

Time To Trade

The Pirates are currently 5 games under .500.  They are sitting 5.5 GB of the 2^nd Wild Card and that could move to 6 if the Mets win tonight in Atlanta.  They have played 73 games to this point, leaving 89 games in the season, 16 games until the All-Star Break and 30 until the trade deadline.

That last number is key, the Trade Deadline.

The Pirates have to decide whether they are going to be buyers or sellers at this deadline.  Since the Wild Card expanded to 2 teams, no team in the National League got into the Wild Card with less than 88 wins.  Over those same 4 years the 2^nd Wild Card averaged 90.75 wins to gain a berth in the postseason.

The Pirates are currently 34-39.  That means they would have to go 54-35 in their final 89 games to get to that magic number of 88 wins.  Add 3 more wins if you are going based on the average. 57-32! Now ask yourself, have you seen anything at all from this team so far this season that make you believe that they can play at a .640 clip the rest of the way this year?

I’ll answer that for you, NO!

But if you would like to hold out hope, that is fine. Let’s give the team until the All-Star Break and see where they stand.  They have 16 games to play before the break, of those 16 games 13 are against teams with a better record than them.  To have any realistic chance of reaching 90 wins, or even 88, reaching .500 by the All-Star Break should be the goal.  That means going 11-5 in the next 16 games.  Those next 16 games include 4 against the Dodgers (currently in position for the top Wild Card spot), a 9 game road trip which includes 5 on the west coast and 4 in St. Louis, and they finish against the Cubs, who have beaten the Pirates 8 out of 9 times this season.  How’s that 11-5 run look now?

It is officially time to lower the Jolly Roger and raise the White Flag on the 2016 Pirate baseball season.

The Pirates are only 1 of 3 teams that can make the claim of reaching the postseason each of the last 3 years.  And that came off of a 21-year hiatus.  Now is not the time to live in the recent past, but to look towards the future.  The Pirates have a bright future, with plenty of young talent in the organization and most of their starting line-up locked up long term.  So why not sell off valuable pieces to help the future?

The Pirates have plenty of pieces that would be valuable to a team in the race in September.  SO who are they?

First and foremost, Mark Melancon.  It is well known that the Pirates shopped around Melancon last off season, knowing that he was going into his final year of arbitration.  He is a free agent after this season and it seems like the Pirates have zero interest in paying him this winter.  What team doesn’t need bullpen help in October?  You’d have to think that other than the Yankees Aroldis Chapman, Melancon would be the best reliever available come July.  He would get a big return.

Another pitcher is next, Francisco Liriano.  Before you laugh at the thought of anyone giving the Pirates more than a bucket of Double Bubble for the struggling lefty, realize this, he is a proven commodity and a lefty.  He also has another year of control on his contract, making him more valuable to the team that gets him. And apparently at least one team has shown interest in him.  (Rotoworld blurb from Wednesday: http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/505192/Orioles-showing-interest-in-Francisco-Liriano )  Liriano would also get a nice return, not as much as Melancon, but something worthwhile.

Neftali Feliz is another rental player that the Pirates would be able to get a decent return on.  As said with Melancon, teams are always looking for another arm for the postseason.  He is another guy that has done it in big games and still can be dominant at times.  He, like Melancon is also a free agent after this season, so why not try to get something in return for him?

The final 3 guys on the list are 3 bats, Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez and David Freese.  All 3 of these guys can be upgrades for teams that are looking for some versatility or some pop off the bench.  You aren’t going to get much return for these 3, but you will get something.  Again, all 3 of these guys are free agents to be, so why not get something in return for them while you can?

I would encourage Neal Huntington and the Pirates to try their best at moving all 6 of these players before the deadline.  They aren’t part of the future but can help the team be better in the future. 

I would also encourage Huntington to use the time after these trades to let the young guys in the system get their feet wet.  If you are trading Joyce, Rodriguez and Freese, bring up Josh Bell and Alen Hanson and play them.  Bell should be the everyday 1^st baseman, with John Jaso available to give him a day off here and there.  Hanson takes the role of Rodriguez and is capable of playing behind both Mercer and Harrison, which should get him on the field 3 or 4 games a week, plus pinch hit opportunities.

Moving Melancon means finding a new closer.  Tony Watson, here is your chance to prove yourself.  You want the closer role in 2017 win the job in August and September of this season.  If Watson isn’t the man, priority #1 in the offseason is already upgrading the bullpen, but not it is finding a closer to lead the way.

Liriano leaves a spot open in the rotation.  Hopefully by the time these trades are made the Juan Nicasio and Jeff Locke experiences are over too.  Bring up Tyler Glasnow and Chad Kuhl and let them learn on the job this season.  It is better they take their poundings in meaningless games against Major League hitters in August and September of a throw away season, then bringing them up next year and have them learn on the fly when the season could mean something.

The future is now with this organization.  If the Pirates want to be serious contenders next season, it starts now.

3 Trades Neal Huntington Should Consider Making

The MLB trade deadline is just days away and this is the year that the Pirates should be making a big move that can get them into deep October.  If the Pirates knew that they wouldn’t have to play in a win-or-go-home game to start the playoffs, I think that they would be more aggressive before the deadline.  However, the memories of Madison Bumgarner striking out 10 while throwing a complete game 4-hitter last October may be sticking in the backs of some of the executives heads.  Is it worth going “all-in” with the likelihood of your season still coming down to a 1-game playoff?

The Pirates are currently 5.5 games back of the 1^st place Cardinals.  They do still play each other 9 times (6 @ StL, 3 @ PNC), but even in the unlikely chances of the Pirates winning all 9 of those games, they still may not win the division.  The Pirates have a much more difficult schedule than the Cardinals the remainder of the season, including 6 against the Dodgers (3 home, 3 away), 3 in New York against the Mets and 4 against the defending World Series Champion Giants.  It would seem that the Pirates are playing for a chance to host the Wild Card Game for the 3^rd straight season.  So again, how much should the Pirates be willing to give up at the deadline, just to have the chance of running into a Clayton Kershaw, or a Madison Bumgarner or maybe Zack Greinke in a 1-game playoff?

I for one, think that this year, is the start of about a 3-4 year window that the Pirates should have a legit chance to compete for the NL Pennant and World Series every year.  With that being the case, I have put together 3 trades that I think the Pirates should consider making before the 4pm deadline Friday.

THE ULTIMATE RENTAL DEAL: Detroit Tigers

Pirates Get:
SP - David Price
OF - Yoenis Cespedes

Tigers Get:
SS – Cole Tucker (#10 prospect)
SP – Nick Kingham (#11 prospect)
OF – Willy Garcia (#13 prospect)
*Probably will cost another player, a 20-30 range pitching prospect

Both Price and Cespedes are free agents at the end of the 2015 season and there is no chance that the Pirates would sign either one during the off season, so this move would be the Pirates pushing in the chips for this season.  The Bucs were rumored to be close to acquiring Price last year at the deadline before the Tigers made a last second move and got him from Tampa, so we know that the organization likes him.  As for Cespedes, the Tigers have to be shopping him, because not only is he in the final year of his contract, but Detroit will not receive a compensatory pick if they lose him in free agency either.  If you are the Tigers you might as well get something in return for him now.  The problem right now is that somehow the Tigers still believe that they are in the AL Wild Card Race.  They are 4 games under .500 and have lost 6 of their last 8 to some of the worst teams in the league, yet for some reason they are still standing pat and have not become sellers.

As for the return for those 2 All-Star rentals, that is always tough to judge, but I am trying to go based off what the return has been for similar players so far this year.  Johnny Cueto, also a rental starting pitcher, cost the Royals 3 pitching prospects.  The Reds received the Royals 2^nd overall prospect and 2 lower tier prospects for Cueto.  Price should draw a comparable return.  When you add Cespedes to the deal, those 2 other pitching prospects that the Royals gave up for Cueto, cause the upgrade to Garcia and Kingham.  Garcia is an outfielder that has played about half the 2015 season in AAA Indianapolis, so he is someone that is on schedule to make his Major League debut at some point in the 2016 season, at the age of 23.  Kingham was one of the top pitching prospects in the Pirates organization before undergoing Tommy John surgery at the beginning of this season.  Kingham already has over 100 innings at the Triple-A level, so once healthy he is a player that should be a contribute quickly.  Tucker is the top prospect in the deal, is was the Pirates top pick in the 2014 draft.

For the Pirates, adding Price would give them a major boost in the starting rotation the rest of the season, making roughly 12 starting after the trade.  More importantly, it would give them a much more formidable playoff rotation if they do get past the wild card game.  Having a 4-man playoff rotation of Gerrit Cole, David Price, AJ Burnett and Francisco Liriano would be among the best group of starters that any team could roll out for a playoff series.

With Cespedes, the Pirates get a big right handed bat in the outfield to platoon with Gregory Polanco as well as much needed bench depth.  Right now the right handed option off of the bench is Sean Rodriguez, who is a career .224 hitter.

THE DIVISION DEAL: Cincinnati Reds

Pirates Get:
RP – Aroldis Chapman
OF – Marlon Byrd

Reds Get:
OF – Austin Meadows (#2 prospect)
P – Clay Holmes (#18 prospect)
*Again, you would probably see the Pirates adding another low level prospect to make this trade happen.

The big get for the Pirates in this deal is Chapman.  It might take a while for some of the guys in the clubhouse to warm up to him, but he would certainly make the bullpen, and more importantly, the team better.  Chapman is one of, if not the hardest throwing closer in the game right now.  Another power arm in your bullpen is never a bad idea, (see KC Royals last year).  I don’t know exactly how he would fit in the back end of the bullpen setup right now.  I would imagine that he immediately becomes the Closer and it just bumps Watson and Melancon down a notch.  Watson working the 7^th and Melancon the 8^th.  Both Watson and Melancon seem like the type of teammates that would be willing to swallow a little pride if it helps the team in the long run.  Chapman also has another year of control in his contract, which is his last year of arbitration.  It is doubtful that the Pirates would extend him, but even if they don’t, he is more than a rental.  He probably sees action in 80 to 90 games with the Pirates through the 2016 season.  That is the reason that the Pirates would need to give up a prospect like Austin Meadows to get someone like Chapman.  The Reds are in rebuild mode and getting a former 1^st Rd pick like Meadows would certainly help that process moving forward, especially since the Reds are shopping both of their corner outfielders at the deadline (Jay Bruce is the other).

As for Byrd, Pirate fans already know what they get with him.  He was acquired by the Bucs via a waiver trade in 2013.  In 30 games with the Pirates in 2013 he hit .318 with 12 extra base hits.  Byrd would likely be a rental player, like he was during the 2013 season.  He does have a vesting option for 2016 at $8M, but he would need 550 plate appearances for that to kick in, which is unlikely, since he has just 309 so far this season.  Byrd would be filling a similar role as laid out for Cespedes.  He would be the right handed bat replacement for Polanco as well as immediately becoming the best right handed bat available to Clint Hurdle off the bench.

THE KEYSTONE BLOCKBUSTER: Philadelphia Phillies

Pirates Get:
SP – Cole Hamels
OF – Jeff Francoeur
CASH

Phillies Get:
P – Tyler Glasnow (#1 prospect)
OF – Meadows (#2 prospect)
C – Either Reese McGuire (#6 prospect) or Elias Diaz (#15)
INF – Alen Hanson (#5 prospect)

The 2 biggest question for every team interested in acquiring Cole Hamels is 1) Will he waive his no trade clause to allow a trade to your team?  And 2) How much money will the Phillies eat of the roughly $90M that he is owed over the next 4 years?

It seems like Hamels wants out of Philadelphia pretty badly, so he is likely going to waive his no trade clause for any team that is in contention.  As for the money involved from the Phillies, that is where things get interested.  The Phillies want to start over and dump the bad contracts that were signed under Pat Gillick and Ruben Amaro, Jr. (since 2009).  Philadelphia still owes Ryan Howard roughly $48M over the next 2 years, but they clear the contracts of Cliff Lee, Chase Utley and Jonathan Papelbon after the completion of the 2015 season.  Lee and Utley will both not have options picked up and Papelbon was just traded to the Nationals on Tuesday.  This allows the Phillies to eat more of Hamels contract to get a higher return for their ace.  Now they just have to decide whether they want to be rid of him completely and take less in a trade, but clear his contract. Or do they want a higher return so therefore are more willing to eat some of his remaining contract.  The only way the Pirates make this move is to have Philadelphia take a large chunk of that contract.  The Pirates have done this before (Wandy Rodriguez and AJ Burnett), and with the depth they have in their farm system, they could do it again.  In this circumstance I have Philadelphia taking on $30M of the $90M remaining on Hamels contract.  That gives the Pirates the rights to Hamels for 4 years at $15M a year out of pocket.

For the Pirates, not only does it give them a top of the rotation type talent in Hamels, but it give them long-term stability in that rotation.  The top 3 in your rotation becomes Cole Hames (through 2019), Gerrit Cole (2020) and Francisco Liriano (2017).  Charlie Morton is still under team control through the 2017 season and Jeff Locke though 2018.  Those 2 will help bridge the gap for prospects like Nick Kingham and Jameson Taillon to work their way back from injuries and possibly into the Majors. 

Jeff Francoeur becomes a throw in on this deal, doing the same as Cespedes and Byrd on the previous 2 deals, although not as flashy of a name as the others.  He is a steady right handed bat that can play defense.  A career .262 hitter, who has found a bit of power this year, hitting 9 home runs this season, the most he has had since the 2012 season.

The Pirates would rather not give up players like Glasnow, Meadows, Hanson and McGuire or Diaz, but they have the depth to do so.  Glasnow is still at least 2 years away and as mentioned before the rotation would be in pretty good shape with Hamels in it for the next 4 years.  Meadows has been very good from Day 1 after being selected with the 9^th overall pick by the Pirates in the 2013 draft.  He has batted over .300 in every league that he has played in so far through the minors, but he also is still probably 2-3 years away, being just 20 years old.  But Meadows plays outfield a position that the Pirates have locked in place for the foreseeable future.  Andrew McCutchen is under contract through 2018, Starling Marte through 2021 and Polanco through 2020.  That plus some other young talent in the organization in the outfield makes Meadows expendable.  Alen Hanson is a player that at the beginning of the year nobody would have expected to be expendable, but the play of Jung Ho Kang changes that.  Many Pirate fans (and some front office personnel) have penciled Hanson in as the replacement for Neil Walker at 2^nd base after the 2016 season, but that role can now be filled by either Josh Harrison or Kang.  As for the catcher position, the Pirates are suddenly pretty deep their after years of nothing in the minor leagues.  In fact, they are looking at a log jam at the position unless they move 1 of them.  The Phillies currently have Carlos Ruiz behind the plate, he is 36 years old and signed for the next 2 years.  They don’t have much behind him either.  Adding a player like Diaz or McGuire to this deal would be exactly what the Phillies need.  Diaz is much closer to the big leagues, as he could probably start next year in the Majors with most clubs.  McGuire, the 14^th overall pick by the Pirates in 2013, has the bigger upside, but he is still a few years from being ready to step into the role of everyday catcher.  Once again, the Pirates can afford to lose either one of the 2 catchers and still be fine moving forward.

Now, I do believe that the Pirates will be active over the next few days and that they will make some moves.  I could see them adding some depth in the bullpen and maybe a bat off the bench.  However, I don’t expect any of these trades to be made by Neal Huntington and the Pirates by Friday’s deadline.  I do think they are all fair and reasonable trades on both ends that would benefit both teams in each situation.  I think that any and all of the trades would help the Pirates win this season, and in some cases in the future as well.