College Football Weekly Rant - Week 6

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT

SAY NO TO PRESEASON POLLS!

This week is a perfect example of why we should do away with all pre-season polls.  And to be honest we probably need new voters for these polls.  Voters that are not too stubborn to change their ballot week to week.  The polls are typically supposed to show who the best teams are at that point in the season.  In no way should your previous week’s ranking reflect your current ranking.  Your preseason poll from 5 or 6 weeks ago should CERTINALY not impact how you are currently ranking teams, you know after you have actually seen them play games and all.

But unfortunately, it does.  And it happens way too often.

Let’s just look at this week’s rankings…

Alabama, the preseason #1 and still #1.  Don’t get me wrong, Alabama is a great football team, but what have they done this season to prove they deserve to be #1.  They beat a preseason #3 Florida State team, that just got their 1^st win of the season on Saturday, narrowly beating Wake Forest.  Alabama also has non-conference wins against Colorado State and Fresno State.  Those two teams are a combined 5-4 on the season, with 2 of the 5 wins coming against FCS teams.  They have also pounded Vanderbilt and Ole Miss, by a combined total of 125-3 in conference play.  But here’s the thing, those teams aren’t very good!

Meanwhile Clemson, the defending National Champions, are ranked behind Alabama, despite also being 5-0.  Their wins include 3 teams currently ranked inside the Top 17, two of which came on the road.  I’m not saying that if Clemson and Alabama played this week that Clemson would beat Alabama, but I am saying that they have done more to earnt he top spot in the rankings to this point in the season.

Another good example is Georgia.

How is Penn State (#4) ranked one spot ahead of Georgia (#5)?  If anyone has watched these teams both play this season, Georgia has done more to prove themselves than Penn State.  BUT Penn State was ranked #6 in the preseason polls and Georgia was #15.  So obviously Georgia can’t be better than Penn State if they are both undefeated.  Forget the fact that Penn State does not have one win over a ranked team.  The 5 wins they have are against teams that are a combined 8-11 against FBS teams and 1 over those teams LOST to an FCS team (Georgia State lost to Tennessee).  Georgia has wins on the road against Notre Dame and Tennessee, plus a dominating win over Mississippi State.  Mississippi State and Tennessee, like the rest of the SEC are very suspect to this point, but Notre Dame is a 1-loss team, that loss coming from Georgia, IN South Bend.  Notre Dame ranks 7^th in the nation with over 300 yards per game on the ground and 3^rd in the nation with 7.1 yards per carry.  Georgia held them to 55 yards on 37 carries (1.5 ypc).  Georgia also just held  Tennessee to just 142 yards of offense on Saturday, the lowest offensive output from the Vols since before Peyton Manning was at Tennessee.

Again… I’m not saying that Georgia would beat Penn State, but I’m saying that they have clearly been more impressive to this point in the season than the Nittany Lions.  (I personally would love to see Saquon Barkley vs the Georgia D.)

WHAT ELSE I LEARNED IN WEEK FIVE

*Butch Jones Will Not Be At Tennessee Next Year.  41-0 at home to a conference opponent?  Yes Georgia is a very good team, but that should not happen if you are Tennessee, EVER!  Last year it was a 59-10 pasting by Alabama in Knoxville, and now this.  Jones was on the hotseat going into last week’s game.  I am actually surprised a move wasn’t made on Sunday to replace Jones with the Vols on a BYE this week.  With schools like Texas A&M, and Nebraska also liking to be shopping for a new head coach in the offseason, Tennessee could have got a jump on the competition for the top candidates had they made a move.

*Auburn Joins Top Tier of SEC.  Gus Malzahn finally is getting the QB play from Jarrett Stidham that he had hoped.  With that comes back to back games against SEC opponents total 993 yards and 100 points.  Stidham has gone 26-33 for 482 and 3 scores with no interceptions in those games.  His efficient play at the QB spot has opened up the dynamic and powerful running attack that the Tigers have.  Oh by the way, the Tiger defense is really good too.

*LSU Is In A Tough Spot.  Nick Saban at Alabama has been a thorn in the side of every coach in the SEC.  Expectations for every team in the conference is to compete with Saban and Alabama.  The problem is, he doesn’t lose.  No program has been affected by Saban more than LSU, the school Saban won a National Championship with.  The problem with LSU and their fanbase is that they think these expectations are reasonable.  Saban is winning at a rate at Alabama that has never been done in the current landscape of college football.  LSU should be in a slight re-build mode this season.  They have a new head coach and offensive coordinator and they don’t have an SEC caliber QB on their roster.  That isn’t the fault of Ed Orgeron.  They aren’t set up to complete with Alabama this season, but give him a year or two and maybe they will be.  PATIENCE… I know it’s tough for the fanbases of the SEC, but you must have it.

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK SIX

*Teams Taking Care Of Business.  The schedule is not very good this week.  Of the 20 games in the Top 25 on Saturday 16 of them have double digit point spread this week, and that includes a matchup of ranked teams in WVU and TCU, where the Horned Frogs are 13.5-point favorites at home.   With some bigger tests coming in the next two weeks, teams can’t afford to stumble this week to lesser opponents.

*Winning With Backups.  Michigan, Oregon and Notre Dame will all have backup quarterbacks starting this week due to injuries to the starters.  Notre Dame should still roll over UNC, even on the road as the Tar Hels are not very good.  The Irish running game should be enough to lead them to victory.  Michigan plays a down Michigan State team, but they are still a rival and we know anything can happen in rivalry games.  The last time these two played at the Big House was when Michigan State won on a Walk-Off Block Punt for a Touchdown.  Oregon had their top two QB’s hurt last week, so when they host #11 Washington State this week it will be a true freshman taking the snaps.  That is not a good match-up for the physical and uber-aggressive Cougar defense.

A GAMBLING EYE

* Louisville (-4) @ NC State – Lamar Jackson has made his living making plays happen on the fly.  He may have to do that a bunch on Thursday as he faces a stacked defensive line from NC State.  The difference for me is the Louisville defense and their inability to get off the field.  NC State is 16^th in the nation in time of possession and they don’t turn the ball over.  That means the play-making Jackson will be on the sidelines with the rest of the Louisville offense for the majority of the game.

*Illinois (+18.5) @ Iowa – Illinois is awful.  18.5 is a lot of points to give an offense that struggles the way that Iowa can at times, but let me once again say that Illinois is AWFUL!

*Miami (-3.5) @ Florida State – FSU has major issues protecting their quarterback this season.  Miami has a fast and fierce defense that won’t make things easy on the Noles FR signal caller.  This is a rivalry game and FSU has owned the Canes over the years in this game.  Some would say anything more than a FG in either direction is too much for this rivalry.  I disagree.  I don’t see FSU scoring much at all against the Miami defense and the Hurricanes offense played their best game of the season last week on the road at Duke.

*Air Force (+7.5) @ Navy – Air Force ranks 87^th in the nation in Rush Defense giving up almost 200 yards per game.  Navy leads the nation in Rush Offense running for 400 yards per game.  You do the math

*Alabama (-27) @ Texas A&M – It is crazy to think that this line is this high, but the way Alabama has come out of the gates this season vs SEC opponents, Vegas had no other option.  Texas A&M is not a bad team, but Alabama is dominant.  This number is a fascinating one to me just simply because it is nearly unheard of to see a team the caliber of Texas A&M get nearly 4 touchdowns at home.

*Michigan State (+10) @ Michigan – We all know what happened the last time these two teams played at The Big House.  It’s just a good thing that one of these coaches isn’t a Garde A ass that would hold grudges against a rival.  Oh wait… I don’t see Michigan State scoring many points on this Michigan defense and even with a backup QB I think Michigan scores in bunches to beat Sparty.  I wouldn’t be at all shocked if a few late scores happen just to make the margin of victory a little bigger either.

PLAYOFF PICKS

It is never too early to start projecting the playoff.

1. Clemson – 3 wins over teams ranked in the Top17 before Oct 1.  Only NC State (#24) is ranked among the remaining games on the schedule.

2. Alabama – The SEC is garbage outside Bama, Georgia and Auburn.  Those would likely be the final 2 teams Alabama would have to beat before the CFB Playoff.

3. Georgia – The chances of 2 SEC teams making the playoff is virtually none with how bad the conference is this season, but that doesn’t mean that Georgia isn’t one of the 3 best teams in the country.

4. Penn State – This week begins a tough 3 game stretch for Penn State.  They go on the road for just the 2^nd time this season to Northwestern.  The Wildcats are a much better team than Iowa which nearly upset them on their last road trip.  After Northwestern comes back-to-back games against Michigan and Ohio State.

NEXT UP:

Washington

Oklahoma State

Oklahoma

TCU

Michigan

That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote-control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!

College Football Weekly Rant - Week 5

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT

Just when you think you know…

For the first three weeks of the football season I have put myself out on quite a few limbs, willing to stand by my opinions from what I have seen.  This past Saturday those limbs broke, ALL OF THEM.

I had been skeptical of Alabama, especially offensively and they go out a throttle a good Vanderbilt team scoring a season high 59 points on a Vandy team that led the nation is scoring defense.

I anoint Oklahoma State as the best team in the nation, with the best offense and they get stonewalled at home against TCU.

I claim that Clemson is back and they lay an egg at home against Boston College.  Yes, they won, but the game was tied at 7 heading into the final 12 minutes of play before the Tigers scored 27 straight to close the game.

I was disappointed in what I had seen from Penn State in their first three games, then they come through in the clutch winning a tough game in a tough environment.

Oklahoma looked like world beaters and Baylor looked like the worst team in any Power 5 conference. Go figure Baylor throws for 463 and nearly pulls off the upset.

Before we throw the first few weeks out the window completely, remember conference play really started in full force last week and conference foes know you better than anyone.  Winning in conference is never easy.

I do standby my thought that the SEC is incredibly down this year.  It looks like Alabama and Georgia are the only two teams worth a grain of salt.  LSU struggled at home with a not very good Syracuse team.  Texas A&M and Arkansas played a competitive game that went into OT, but both teams looked sloppy and very average, if that.  Mississippi State looked like they could rival Alabama in the SEC West in their win over LSU in Week 3, then were equally dominated by Georgia this past Saturday, mustering only 280 yards and 3 points.

Then we have Florida. 

The surgeon that implanted the horseshoe up Jim McElwain’s butt, deserves some credit from Gator fans.  Florida is the worst good team in history.  Check out these numbers since Jim McElwain arrived in Gainesville in 2015.  Florida has won 21 of 30 and has appeared in back-to-back SEC Championship Games.  Florida has also gone just 3-8 vs ranked teams in that span.  Under a coach that made his money with offense, the McElwain-led Gators have scored more than 30 points in just 6 of the 30 games he has coached.  In comparison, his final year at Colorado State the Rams scored 30+ points 8 of their 12 games.  Maybe even a scarier stat is that in the 24 games that they haven’t scored more than 30, that are averaging just 19 points per game. YET THEY STILL WIN.  It really is amazing!

WHAT ELSE I LEARNED IN WEEK FOUR

*The BIG XII Is Screwed.  The BIG XII has felt that not having a conference championship game is a disadvantage for them trying to get a team into the playoff.  Welcome 2017 and the return of the BIG XII Championship Game.  Now the conference is going to force their best team to beat their 2^nd best team TWICE in the same season.  No other conference has that set-up.  And in a year which already seems like it could get crazy, good luck getting the committee to select a team that just lost their conference championship game.  TCU beating Oklahoma State on Saturday makes the Big XII race even more interesting, now that a third team has emerged.

*Washington Is Back.  Actually, I don’t know if they ever really went anywhere.  Struggling against Rutgers is never a good thing.   Nobody should ever struggle with Rutgers.  Maybe that opening game stuck with me a little too much.  The fact that the Huskies followed it up with wins over FCS Montana and lowly Fresno State, gave me lots of doubts heading into their PAC-12 rematch game in Boulder.  They passed the test with flying colors.  Colorado had been dominant it their opening 3 games, especially on defense, but Washington ran the ball right down their throats, gaining 254 on the ground and scoring 3 times.  With question marks coming from USC, Stanford, UCLA and Oregon, the Huskies have proven they are still the team to beat in the conference.

*Notre Dame Is Good???  Okay, maybe I still haven’t learned much about Notre Dame, but I am intrigued.  Each passing week the 20-19 loss to Georgia looks better and better.  I know that losing is never good and unacceptable at Notre Dame, but that’s the best I can do right now.  Wins over Temple, BC and Michigan State are wins, but not much more as none of those teams look like bowl teams looking at them one month into the season.  Notre Dame won’t really be challenged again until USC visits South Bend in Week 8.

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK FOUR

*Weeknight Football.  I know that there are always college games on Thursday’s and Friday’s, but this week they are actually watchable games.  Out with the usual Group of 5 suspects like South Florida and Boise State.  This week we have Big XII, PAC-12, Big Ten and ACC games all before the weekend starts.  Thursday gave us Iowa State hosting Texas.  It was a sloppy game that was more the two offenses shooting themselves in the foot opposed to battling in a shootout that many may have expected.  Texas gets the 17-7 win as both teams are now 2-2 on the season.  Friday, we have a full slate of games.  Miami @ Duke kicks things off at 7pm.  Raise your hand if you had Duke 4-0 at this point in the season (my hand is down).  The Canes shook off the cobwebs last week vs Toledo after being off for 2 weeks due to Hurricane Irma.  Friday will be the 1^st big ACC test for either team this season.  At 8pm we go to the Big Ten for Nebraska @ Illinois.  Nebraska is desperate for a win and lucky for the Illinois is awful.  The showcase game however doesn’t kickoff until 10:30 with USC @ Washington State.  Pulman is always a tough place to play and the Cougars seem to always give the Trojans a game.  This will be the toughest test to date for either team.  I am married with 2 kids under the age of 3, so I don’t go out on Friday Night anyway, but you can be certain I will be in front of my TV this Friday Night!

*Better Schedule. Last week’s schedule was so bad that College Game Day didn’t go to a game, they went to Time Square.  Last week did have some close finishes, it really didn’t have any match-ups that moved the dial.   Although not great, this week will be better.

NOON:
We actually get off to a slow start with the noon games, but you will need that after Friday’s trifecta of games.  The best game in the noon kickoff slot is Northwestern @ Wisconsin in a game I think most thought could be the Big Ten West pseudo championship game, but Northwestern hasn’t looked great early on.  Wisconsin looks to clearly be the class of the division.

LATE AFTERNOON (3:30):
Indiana @ Penn State and Georgia @ Tennessee are the two late afternoon games that catch my attention most.  Indiana nearly knocked Penn State off the rails last year, leading the Nittany Lions in the 4^th quarter, before Penn State ran off 17 points in the final 4 minutes to stay atop the Big Ten East standings.  This year it could be a trap game for the Nittany Lions.  Penn State is coming off an emotional win at Iowa and now has Indiana, a team that challenge Ohio State and can put points on the board.  If the Nittany Lions look ahead to the upcoming 3 game stretch (@Northwestern, vs Michigan, @ Ohio St) they could be in trouble Saturday.  Georgia should roll Tennessee, but the SEC has been very unpredictable this season.  Butch Jones could really use a Top 10 win to ease the tension in Knoxville.

PRIMETIME:
Clemson @ Virginia Tech is clearly the Game of the Week this week.  Clemson having already knocked off Auburn, and Louisville now gets the Hokies, who look to be the class of the ACC Coastal.  That game starts at 8pm and should have your attention most of the night, however there are a bunch of other decent-to-good games beginning at 7, with Mississippi State @ Auburn.  Another 7pm kickoff that if you like points you’ll love, is Memphis @ UCF.  Both Group of 5 teams already have wins over P5 teams this year and have two of the top upcoming coaches in the business.  At 7:30 you get South Carolina @ Texas A&M which is another opportunity for Kevin Sumlin to get himself fired.  Opposite the Clemson/VT game is Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech in a game that should be fast, fun and full of offense.  And at 9pm, Mississippi @ Alabama should keep your attention until about 9:30 or so when the 2^nd half of the Clemson/VT game should be getting underway.

LATE NIGHT:
I love #Pac12AfterDark.  This week we get Colorado @ UCLA, both coming off beatdown losses and Cal @ Oregon both coming off tough, close losses.

HOT SEAT
It is that time of year that the rumor mills get going and coaches start to get fired (by the fans).  So which coaches didn’t even make it through September this season without finding themselves on the Hot Seat?  SCALE 1 (John Calipari) to 10 (Rick Pitino)

Rich Rodriguez (Arizona) – The Wildcats have one PAC-12 win in the past 22 months, that coming in last years’ season finale over rival ASU.  Now in his 6^th year in the desert, Rodriguez has just one winning season in conference play at Arizona.  The pricey buyout on Rodriguez’s contract might be the only thing that is keeping him in Tucson at this point. (8)

Todd Graham (Arizona State) – Like his coaching rival Rodriguez, the desert has not been kind to Todd Graham.  The Sun Devils snapped a 6-game conference losing streak last week beating Oregon, a win Graham very much needed.  Still just 2-2 on the year, one would think it is bowl game or bust for Graham in Tempe. (7)

Bret Bielema (Arkansas) – Now in year 5 at Arkansas after leading Wisconsin to three straight Rose Bowls, Bielema has won a total of 10 SEC games.  A roughly $15.5M buyout, due to an extension given to him after his only winning season in SEC play, 2015, might be the only thing keeping Arkansas from making a change.  Although some fans are willing to chip in to help pay that off.  There is actually a GoFundMe page to payoff this massive buyout.  (7)

Mark Stoops (Kentucky) – It’s a good thing that Kentucky is a basketball school, otherwise there is no chance he would still be coaching football there.  9-25 in the SEC with only 1 bowl game in five seasons just doesn’t cut it at most places, especially in the SEC.  Those wins have come against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt (2), Missouri (2) (see Barry Odom below) and South Carolina (4).  Not exactly world beaters.  Eastern Michigan and Missouri are next up for Kentucky.  It would be a very good idea for his Wildcats to pick up two wins in the next two weeks. (6)

Mark Dantonio (Michigan State) – Dantonio has done a ton good for the Michigan State football program and put it back on the map after a 40-year dry spell.  Unfortunately, he went 3-9 last year and his team doesn’t look much better this season.  He could typically weather a few bad years, but they also happen to coincide with recent player discipline issues and rape charges on a few of his former players. (4)

Barry Odom (Missouri) – It has been tough times for Odom in this first 2 seasons at Missouri.  The key there was that he is still in his first two seasons.  Missouri is only 3 years removed from back-to-back SEC Championship Game appearances, but since then they have gone 3-15 in conference play.  This year the Tigers have been blown out in all 3 games that they have faced FBS opponents.  (4)

Mike Riley (Nebraska) – Being mediocre does not sit well with Nebraska football fans and that is exactly what the Cornhuskers have been since hiring Mike Riley (17-13, 10-8).  With the AD that hired him fired last week, it may only be a matter of time before Riley follows.  A home loss to Northern Illinois, followed by needing to score the game’s final 13 points to knock off Rutgers at home Nebraska and Riley have a MUST WIN road game against Illinois this Friday night.  That game is followed by Wisconsin and Ohio State. (9)

Butch Jones (Tennessee) – Jones is in a tough spot for 3 reasons.  1) Expectations in Knoxville are borderline ridiculous. Think about the fact that the Vols hadn’t won more than 7 games since the 2007 season before Jones did it in each of the last two years, winning 9 both seasons.  Yet they still want him gone. 2) A new AD always wants his own guy and Tennessee has a new AD.  3) The SEC East has been awful and the Vols still can’t win it. lOsing to Florida in heartbreaking fashion two weeks ago doesn’t help Jones’ job security.  Losing to Georgia this week won’t either. (8.5)

Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M) – When a Board of Regents member calls for your firing after the 1^st game of the season, it is not a good thing.  When you follow that up with 2 more duds (wins, but ugly wins to inferior competition) in non-conference, it doesn’t make things better.  After winning 11 games with Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel at QB in 2012, the Aggies have won 9, 8, 8, 8 each year since and the offensive minded coach has not developed another QB since.  Sumlin is on a week-to-week basis at this point in College Station.  A&M hosts South Carolina this week, then plays 4 stragiht against ranked teams. (9.9999)

Jim Mora, Jr. (UCLA) – After a successful start at UCLA, which saw the Bruins finish in the top 2 of the PAC-12 South in each of his first three seasons, while winning 9 or 10 games in each of those seasons, it has gone downhill.  The Bruins won 8 in 2015 and just 4 last year.  Mora, a defensive coach by trait is seeing his Bruin defense this year allow over 43 points per game. (7.5)

PLAYOFF PICKS

It is never too early to start projecting the playoff.

1. Alabama – I still don’t see anyone in the SEC that can beat them.  Maybe Georgia, maybe!

2. Clemson – Clemson has another tough road test this week in Blacksburg. A win and they would be in control on the ACC Atlantic.

3. Penn State – At this moment Penn State is the best team in the Big Ten.  Michigan and Ohio State will be there with them at the end, but right now Penn State is playing better and more consistent than those other 2.

4. Washington – As with Penn State in the Big Ten, Washington is playing the most consistent football of anyone in the PAC-12.   A favorable schedule that has Oregon and Washington State both travelling to Seattle and skips USC in the PAC12 South makes it even more likely that Washington could be going to their 2^nd straight PAC-12 Championship Game.

NEXT UP:

Oklahoma State – 1 loss doesn’t derail the Cowboys chances, but the way they lost to TCU is concerning.  Any more performances like that and they are done.

Oklahoma – If we see the Baylor Oklahoma team then forget about it, but if the Ohio State Oklahoma team gets back on the field, there is no reason they can’t win the Big XII.

TCU – No we didn’t forget about the Horned Frogs after their impressive victory.  They do have to go back into the Sooner state to play Oklahoma in November however.  The Horned Frogs will go as far as Kenny Hill takes them.  Last Saturday we saw Good Kenny Hill.  Too many times in the past we have seen Bad Kenny Hill.

Michigan – They haven’t lost, but they just haven’t been impressive in any games they have played this year.  I think this team is still a year away, but it’s tough to brush them off when they roll out that defense every week.

USC – I just need USC to blow someone out.  I don’t care who it is, but just show me that killer instinct and that unstoppable offense, just once.  I really do want to believe, but I just can’t.  Not yet...

That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote-control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!

College Football Weekly Rant - Week 4

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT

Congratulations to the Big XII, you are the only conference that showed up and showed out in Week 3 of the season.  Sure, the Kansas State loss on the road to Vandy probably caught some by surprise (me!!!), but if losing a road game to an SEC opponent is the worst thing your conference did this week, you are looking good.  Of course, that was not the only loss by the Big XII last week, but the wins certainly outshined the losses.

The best loss, might have been the best loss of anyone in the country so far this season.  Texas went into The Coliseum to face #4 USC as more than two touchdown underdogs, and scored a go-ahead touchdown with :45 remaining.  USC kicked a tying FG as time expired then won in double overtime.  Even with the loss Texas showed they will be a factor in the Big XII race this year.  Now which Texas team is the real Texas team, the one that was dominated at home by Maryland in the season opener, or the one that shutdown the high-powered USC offense and almost pulled off an upset of a Top 4 team? 

The Top 4 of the Big XII all continued to roll.  West Virginia finished their non-conference at 2-1 with a win over Delaware State, surprising nobody, but they remained healthy and are now set for the grueling travel schedule they have in the Big XII.  TCU fell behind 19-7 midway through the 2^nd quarter to SMU on Saturday before rattling off 49 of the next 59 points scored to get the comfortable 20-point win.  TCU starts Big XII play next week with a huge challenge on the road in Stillwater.  The Cowboys were dominant in every facet of the game Saturday on the road against Pitt, jumping out to a 49-7 2^nd quarter lead before putting it in cruise control in route to a 59-21 win.  Oklahoma State scored touchdowns on every 1^st half possession except their final possession, when they took a knee before the half.  The Cowboy defense, which often gets overlooked, found the end zone for the 3^rd straight game this season with a pick-6 in the 3^rd quarter.  As I have said before and I will continue to say, in my eyes, Oklahoma State has the best offense and in the country and they remain my pick to win the Big XII this season.  Oh yeah, Oklahoma also won big Saturday.  The Sooners trailed Tulane 14-7 with 4 minutes remaining in the 1^st quarter.  They won the game 56-14.  Oklahoma opens the Big XII season against woeful Baylor next week.  Baylor might be the worst P5 team in the country this year.

Credit Texas Tech for also waving the Big XII flag proudly on Saturday, getting a win over P5 Arizona State.   The Red Raiders are not at the level of the four mentioned earlier, but are now 2-0 with a chance for a perfect non-conference record if they can knock off in-state rival Houston next week.  Iowa State also impressive in their win over Akron.  Matt Campbell has the Cyclones offense clicking, don’t be surprised if they knock off a Big XII contender this season.  Ames is always a tough place to play and the Cyclones host Oklahoma, West Virginia and Kansas State this season.

WHAT ELSE I LEARNED IN WEEK TWO

*Clemson is Legit.  I liked the Tigers chances to win on Saturday, but I never expected them to be as dominant as they were in the process.  QB Kelly Bryant looks impressive as he is filling the huge fills left behind by DeShaun Watson admirably.  The defense is just ridiculous.  I mentioned Oklahoma State having the best offense in the country.  I think Clemson has the best defense.  They are so fast and so aggressive, they get after you every play. 

*The ACC Is Going To Be Okay.  Last year the ACC planted their flag in the ground and claimed the “Best Conference in the Country” title.  This year is a “prove it” year for the conference, and so far, they have.  The Pitt loss to Oklahoma State was an obvious setback last week and BC losing the Notre Dame the way they did may have surprised a few people, but a 7-2 record for the week in the non-conference, with those as your only losses isn’t all that bad.  Plus, as mentioned, they proved to have a National Championship contender once again.

*The Big Ten Still Has Lots of Unanswered Questions.  Not a great start to the week for the B1G after Illinois got boat raced by South Florida on Friday and Nebraska loses at home to Northern Illinois.  (NIU lost at home to Boston College to open the year, just to give you an idea of where they stand this year.)  Throw in another shaky offensive performance by Michigan and you still have lots of unanswered questions about the B1G as they start conference play this week.   Props to Purdue and the job Jeff Brohm has done in Year 1 with the Boilermakers.  They aren’t ready to challenge for the West title yet, but they certainly won’t be the walkover that they have been in recent years. 

*What Happened To the SEC?  For years it was just widely accepted that the SEC was the best conference in college football.  What happened???  Sure, they still have Alabama, but that is about it.  Did Nick Saban scare away other elite coaches (Les Miles, Mark Richt), while raising the expectations at other programs that they can’t be met (Texas A&M)?   Seriously though, look at this past week in the SEC.  The premier game was Tennessee @ Florida, which had a great 4^th quarter with an unbelievable ending, but the 1^st 3 quarters were utterly unwatchable.  Auburn struggled with Mercer.  Missouri got embarrassed at home by Purdue.  Ole Miss lost by double digits to Cal.  Texas A&M trailed at halftime to UL-Lafayette, before getting their act together to save Kevin Sumlin’s job.  Mississippi State rolled LSU as the Tigers continue to struggle on offense, even with a new coaching staff and coordinator.  South Carolina, the early bright spot, and maybe surprise contender in the East lost to Kentucky, while their most dynamic playmaker broke his leg, ending his season.  The 4 best teams in the SEC might actually be Alabama, Mississippi State, Georgia and Vanderbilt right now.  What happened???

*PAC-12… WTF?!?!  The PAC-12 isn’t as confusing as either the B1G or the SEC, but having 2 ranked teams lose to 2 Group of 5 teams is not a good look.  The PAC-12 still has 4 legit playoff contenders with USC (which, as we mentioned struggled against an inferior opponent for the 2^nd time in 3 weeks), Washington, Washington State (don’t sleep on Mike Leach) and maybe even Oregon, who looks very good early on.  But losses by Stanford and UCLA hurt.  Not to mention Arizona State losing to Texas Tech as well on Saturday.  Stanford, very uncharacteristically, was run on at will for the second straight week as they drop to 1-2 losing to San Diego State.  And Golden Boy Josh Rosen and Company go across the country to take on Memphis and fall 48-45.  You can’t really blame Rosen (463yds, 4 TD) but he did throw a go-ahead Pick 6 midway through the 3^rd quarter that allowed Memphis to continue to hang around.  One of those teams will drop another game this week as UCLA goes to Stanford.

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK FOUR

*Conference Play.  Last week was an appetizer, this week is the main course.  Conference play is in full swing in Week 4, with some important September games in each conference. 

Some of the top games in each conference:
ACC :
NC State @ Florida State – The Seminoles have not played since their opening week loss to Alabama due to Hurricane Irma.  They will be breaking in a freshman QB to take on a tough and physical defense from NC State.  The Wolfpack always seem to play the Seminoles tough.

BIG TEN:
Penn State @ Iowa – Penn State has not really been tested this season to this point and Saturday will be their 1^st road game of the season.  Iowa City is not an easy place to play, especially under the lights (just ask Michigan!)
Michigan @ Purdue – Speaking of Michigan, they face an unexpected road test this week, facing the vastly improved Boilermakers.  Michigan can’t seem to score and Purdue is scoring in bunches this season.  This will be the 1^st real test for the tough Wolverines defense this season.

BIG XII:
TCU @ Oklahoma State – The Cowboys looked good last week, dominating Power 5 foe Pitt in Pittsburgh.  TCU will pose a different challenge for Oklahoma State.  The Horned Frogs will test the defense of OK State, in a game that could also test the scoreboard lights.

PAC 12:
Washington @ Colorado – A rematch of last season’s PAC-12 Championship Game, where Washington drubbed a banged-up Buffalo team 41-10.   Colorado gets revenge this year at home, with a healthy defense, which will try to stop the high-powered Huskies offense.
UCAL @ Stanford – In the preseason this game had a ton of potential to be a big one in the PAC12, but neither team has really lived up to the hype, both coming off losses last week out of conference.

SEC:
Alabama @ Vanderbilt – No, I’m serious… Vandy will enter this game ranked #1 national in Total Defense, Scoring Defense, Passing Defense & Red-Zone Defense.  Can the Commodores shock the world in front of their home crowd?
Mississippi State @ Georgia – MSU stunned LSU last week, dominating them in every aspect of the game on their way to an easy 37-7 win last week.  Now they must do it again.  MSU hasn’t won in Athens since 1956. QB Nick Fitzgerald will be challenged by a fast and fierce Georgia front 7 that held Notre Dame to just 55 yards on 37 carries two weeks ago.

A GAMBLING EYE

*West Virginia (-21.5) @ Kansas – Kansas has played 2 FBS teams (Central Michigan, Ohio) this season, and lost to both, giving up an average of 43.5 in those losses and neither of those teams are near the level of West Virginia.  Since joining the Big XII, WVU is 4-1 against Kansas, winning those 4 games by an average of 36.  21.5 points seems too low for this game.

*Army (+3) @ Tulane – Army started the season with 2 impressive wins, running the ball at will.  Last week they lost to Ohio State, which is nothing to be ashamed of.  Suddenly they are getting points against a 1-2 Tulane team that lost to the only 2 FBS teams they’ve played, including Army’s rival Navy.  Army is better than Navy this year.  I don’t see why/how Army is the underdog in this game.

*Central Florida (+4) @ Maryland – Are people maybe overreacting to Maryland’s opening weekend win over Texas?  The Terps have definitely improved over years past, but Central Florida is a very good team that can put up a ton of points.  UCF hasn’t played since their opener due to Hurricane Irma.  In that game, the Knights jumped out to a 40-10 halftime lead, before cruising to a 61-17 win over FIU. When a team can score points like UCF can, and you can get even more points, it’s tough to say no.

*Alabama (-19.5) @ Vanderbilt – Nick Saban normally does everything he can to not embarrass teams and coaches that he respects.  Combine that tidbit, plus the fact that Vandy has a VERY stingy defense and Alabama still is lacking that explosive spark on offense and I don’t think Bama covers.  I think they win the game.  But just like it is dangerous to give a team that scores in bunch like UCF points, it is also tough to blow out a team with a defense that doesn’t give up easy points or big plays.

*CU (+14) @ Oklahoma State – As I have said over and over on this site, Oklahoma State is the best offense in the country. They are going to score a ton of points, regardless of the opponent.  TCU just doesn’t have man power on defense to slow them down, or the firepower on offense to stay with them. 

*Oklahoma (-28.5) @ Baylor – This is one of those name your score games for OU.  I don’t think Lincoln Riley will try to run up the score, but the simple fact is that Baylor is awful.  The Sooners 2^nd and 3^rd teamers will continue to put up points, even after Riley calls off the dogs.

*Mississippi State (+4.5) @ Georgia – Maybe I am guilty of overreacting to the Mississippi State win over LSU last week, but I’m buying stock in Dan Mullen’s group.  Someone in the SEC West has to step up to challenge Alabama, why can’t it be MSU?  Georgia is a very good defense, but I worry that their freshman QB won’t be able to put up the points to keep pace with Nick Fitzgerald and Mississippi State.

*Florida/Kentucky (O/U 45) – Both offenses are terrible.  Both defenses are good.  Pretty simple UNDER in my mind.

PLAYOFF PICKS

It is never too early to start projecting the playoff.

1. Oklahoma State – I was a believer already before last week, but now I’m All-In on the Cowboys.  Bedlam can’t get here fast enough.

2. Clemson – The way Kelly Bryant went into Louisville and shined, reminded me a lot of Jameis Winston going to Clemson on primetime and making a statement that FSU was for real.

3. Alabama – And I ask again… Who in the SEC is going to beat Alabama?

4. Oklahoma – Do I think that the Big XII gets 2 teams into the playoff, no, but do I think Oklahoma is one of the 4 best teams in the country, YES!

NEXT UP:

USC – As impressive as they were against Stanford, the Trojans have laid eggs in their other two games this season.  And now seeing Stanford struggle against SDST, maybe we need to take a step back and look at USC.  The offense has still yet to get going, which should be a concern for Trojan fans.

ANYONE FROM THE B1G THAT WANTS TO SHOW UP – Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin – This happens with the Big Ten every year.  The power teams don’t really build any type of resume in the non-conference but remain highly regarded due to name recognition alone.  Then they just beat up on the overrated conference that they are in, and everyone suddenly thinks that the conference is great because they have 4 teams in the Top 10.  (see last year… Also see last year bowl results).  I legit think that all 4 of the teams I mentioned are good, but I just haven’t seen it on the field yet from any of them.

That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote-control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!

College Football Weekly Rant - Week 3

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT

The non-conference slate was fun, but here comes the conference play.  Sure, there are still some decent non-conference games to be played in the 2017 college football season, including this week, but Week 3 we begin to see some better conference games, with fewer high profile non-conference games on the schedule. 

With conference play coming full force in the final weeks of the month, Week 3 sees a lot more of those “buy” games on the slate to let teams get healthy.   The top payout this week is for Georgia State, who is being paid $1.2M to get blasted by Penn State under the lights of Beaver Stadium (but Penn State doesn’t have room for Pitt on their schedule annually…).

Some good conference games highlight the Week 3 schedule with Clemson @ Louisville being the premier game of the week.  The ACC was set up to grab all the eyes this weekend, but Hurricane Irma forced Miami and Florida State to move their annual showdown that was scheduled Saturday in Miami.  Tennessee and Florida re-new their rivalry in Gainesville as well this week.  Another conference game I am looking forward to on Saturday night is one flying under the radar in my mind.  LSU and their new look offense going to Starkville to take on the high-powered Mississippi State offense.

The non-conference schedule isn’t completely barren this week, but just not as good as the first two weeks of the season.  There are still a bunch of Power 5 match-ups this Saturday.  The biggest of those, name wise is Texas traveling to Southern Cal to take on the Trojans in a rematch of the epic 2005 National Championship game.  USC looks like they might contend for a title this year, but unfortunately Texas is not holding up their end of the deal for this re-match, as they are not close to that level.  There are a few other games this weekend that I am sure will peak the interest of the local fanbases, but nothing like what we saw last week, with 3 fantastic primetime non-conference games.

WHAT I LEARNED IN WEEK TWO

*Bob Stoops Left Oklahoma in Good Hands.  It helps to inherit a quarterback like Baker Mayfield when you are a young, first time head coach like Lincoln Riley, but he deserves some credit too.  He took an Oklahoma team that lost tons of playmakers last season, into a hostile environment and won at #2 Ohio State.  There is obviously more to being a head coach than just being on the sidelines in the fall.  We will see how Riley does in recruiting and what happens when he suffers his first loss, but through 2 weeks he has certainly passed every test with flying colors.

*Baker Mayfield Is Everything You Want In a College QB.  This kids just oozes confidence.  He went out and had a career game in an historic venue against a perennial power, then to top it off, he plants the OU flag in the 50-yard line of the Horseshoe.  Michigan fans are so envious.  The only thing Mayfield did wrong was apologize for his acts the next day.   Football teams need badass leaders that give zero F’s, Mayfield is just that, even if he had to go out later and be PC and apologize.  He plays with passion and fire and it showed on the field during and after the game in Columbus.  By the way, that win improved Mayfield to 10-0 on the road as a starter, pretty good!

*Is It Time For Buckeye Fans To Panic?  To be fair, Ohio state has been ravaged by the NFL Draft recently, specifically their secondary, but they also recruit at a VERY high level.  The Buckeyes have now let up 420 yards through the air in back-to-back games and rank dead last in the nation in pass defense.  Things do get easier this week as Army comes to town.  Army is 2-0, but has only completed 2 passes in those 2 wins, totaling 17 yards.  Luckily for Ohio State, they won’t face another formidable passing attack until October 28^th, when Trace McSorely and the Penn State Nittany Lions looks to make it two straight against the Buckeyes.

*Clemson Has The Defense To Defend Their Title.  Can we please stop declaring Auburn and their offense a flop this season?  Jarrett Stidham is a very good young QB, made to play in Gus Malhazn’s offense.  They just so happened to play against likely the best defense in the country in Week 2.  Auburn will be fine, but more importantly, Clemson is truly legit.  The Tigers have the best D-line in the nation, which makes this week’s match-up on the road against the reigning Heisman Trophy winner even more intriguing.  If Clemson can leave Louisville with a win Saturday night however, it would put the Tigers in the driver’s seat in the ACC, with an eye on heading back to the College Football Playoff.

*Penn State Is Not Currently Worthy of Their #4 Ranking.  Don’t get me wrong, the Nittany Lions are a very talented team and they did not get their groove last year until mid-October, but I was not impressed with their performance Saturday against Pitt.  Penn State has superior talent at nearly every position in that match-up, yet Pitt dominated the play for long stretches of the game.  I still fully expect Penn State to make a run to repeat as Big Ten Champs, but they will need to improve big time for that to happen.

*USC Will Win This Year Behind Ronald Jones, NOT Sam Darnold.  I still think Darnold might be the best NFL prospect in college football this year, but I also think that he lost too much at the WR position to duplicate his incredible 2016 season.  Something the Trojans didn’t lose however is Ronald Jones and his offensive line.  In two games this season, Jones has run for 275 and 5 scores on 41 carries.  USC also has freshman Stephen Carr to spell Jones.  Carr has run for 188 and 2 scores as a back-up.  Darnold has been good in the 2 USC wins as well, but not spectacular.  The difference is that this year he doesn’t need to be spectacular for the Trojans to win, he needs to rely on his running game.

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK THREE

*Show Me Games.  There are a few teams out there, that have lofty rankings, but they haven’t proved themselves on the field yet.  #9 Oklahoma State played Tulsa and South Alabama their first two games of the season.  A road trip to Pittsburgh, might not seem like much, but it will be by far the Cowboys toughest test to this point, before beginning Big XII play next week.  #12 LSU has played BYU in New Orleans and Chattanooga, this week they start SEC play at night on the road.  Mississippi State and QB Nick Fitzgerald could create problems for LSU, if that happens can the LSU offense keep pace with the Bulldogs?  #18 Kansas State is another team that I want to believe in to compete in the Big XII, but I just don’t know yet.  Vanderbilt won’t beat the stiffest of test, but they will be vastly better than anyone the Wildcats have beat up on so far to this point.

*Heisman vs Defending Champ.  Lamar Jackson is playing like he did last year at this time when he jumped out to such a big Heisman lead, that nobody could catch him, despite he and the Cardinals struggling down the stretch.  This week he faces off against the defending National Champs, that beat him last year with a defensive stop inside the 10 yard line in the final minutes of play.  The Clemson defense in even better this year, but by the looks of it Jackson might be too.  To top it off, thanks to the Deondre Francois injury at Florida State, the winner not only gets bragging rights in this game, but also an inside track at the ACC Atlantic Title.

*Bounce Back Games.  With all the big games last weeks, we had lots of ranked teams lose.  This week will give us a chance to see how they respond to their 1^st loss of the season.  Notre Dame lost at home to Georgia last week, Saturday they go to Boston College.  The Eagles aren’t a great team, but always play ND tough.  The defense will challenge an O-line that struggled last week.  Could this be a make or break game for Brian Kelly?  Stanford gave up over 300 yards on the ground last week in their loss to USC.  This week they go to San Diego State, to face the Aztec and running back Rashaad Penny, who leads the nation in yards per game.

A GAMBLING EYE

*Iowa State (-10.5, O/U 63) @ Akron – Matt Campbell has the Cyclones offense rolling in year 2.  I am not worried about them scoring points, they have scored 83 points in their 1^st 2 games.  Akron gave up 52 to the only FBS opponent they have seen this year. 

*UCLA (-3.5, O/U 73) @ Memphis – UCLA is travelling across the country to play a 9AM game on their body clocks.  Memphis is a team that can score too.  The Tigers will play physical and try to pound the ball.  They ran for 319 yards in their only game this season.  UCLA has allowed an average of 331.5 yards on the ground this season.  Josh Rosen and the Bruin offense should be able to move the ball, it will be interesting to see how sharp they are with such an early start time.

*Baylor (+14.5, O/U 59) @ Duke – Baylor has been dreadful this season, losing to FCS Liberty in Week 1, then to only scoring 10 in a loss to UTSA last week.  The Bears step up in competition, taking on their first Power 5 opponent of the year.  The Blue Devils in turn will be playing their 2^nd straight P5 opponent.  The Blue Devils have been one of the surprises in the ACC through 2 weeks. QB Daniel Jones has taken strides from last year and Duke has scored 101 points in two games this year, including 41 on a veteran Northwestern team.

*Tennessee (+4.5, O/U 49) @ Florida – The Gators have only played 1 game this season and it was awful against Michigan.  They have spent the last week trying to recover from Hurricane Irma.  It is tough to say if the Gators will come on playing for the city and state, or come out exhausted and distracted.  Tennessee at least won their opener against a P5 school (Georgia Tech), but the defensive issues that hurt the Vols towards the end of last year, have shown up again this year through 2 weeks.

*LSU (-7.5, O/U 53) @ Mississippi State – This number is interesting to me.  LSU seems like the better team, but for a team like LSU who has struggled to score over the years to be giving more than a touchdown to a team that has had an explosive offense seems odd.  That extra half a point could be the factor in this game.

*Kansas State (-4, O/U 50) @ Vanderbilt – Kansas State is ranked 18^th in the country.  Vanderbilt is, well Vanderbilt.  This is another game that seems like the experts know something I don’t.

PLAYOFF PICKS

It is never too early to start projecting the playoff.

1. Alabama – Who in the SEC is going to beat them this year?

2. Oklahoma State – I’m looking forward to seeing the Cowboys in person Saturday.  Despite the Sooners performance last week, I still believe Ok State is the best team in the Big XII.

3. Clemson – Defense wins championships.  Clemson has the best defense in the country.

4. USC – The Trojans still have question marks, but when you have a backfield of Darnold and Jones it makes life much easier.

NEXT UP:

Oklahoma – They proved everything they needed to with their road win in Columbus, now they just need to avoid the bad loss that Bob Stoops teams were so accustomed to.

Michigan – This was supposed to be a re-build year for the Wolverine, but they haven’t missed a step.  Saturday worried me a bit, with them playing down to the level of their opponent.  Air Force comes to town this week in the final non-conference game.  Then Big Ten play begins and right now they are playing as good as any team in the conference.

That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote-control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!

College Football Weekly Rant - Week 2

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT

One week of the college football season in the books, and it did not disappoint.

Have I mentioned how much I love teams going out and challenging themselves in the non-conference?  In the Opening Week of the season we had neutral site games between Alabama and Florida State, Michigan and Florida, West Virginia and Virginia Tech as well as Tennessee and Georgia Tech.  We were also treated to Maryland at Texas and Texas A&M in the Rose Bowl against UCLA in other Power 5 match-ups to open the season.   The fun part about those games is that none of them disappointed.  Maybe the competitiveness of the games may not have been what everyone hoped for in some of them, but all of them helped us learn a little more about the teams involved and give us a better forecast of what we might be able to expect from them this season.

The big game last week was obviously #1 Alabama vs # Florida State.  The final score, 24-7, was not as telling as one would think.  Alabama dominated in one aspect of the game, Special Teams, and that was the difference.  Both defenses dominated for stretches, long stretches as a matter of fact.  Both offenses struggled to get the ball to their play makers in space.  As for Special Teams, Alabama blocked a punt and a FG, Florida State also fumbled a kickoff.  All 3 of those plays made a difference on the scoreboard.  The blocked FG just before the end of the 1^st half, allowed the Crimson Tide to hold a 10-7 lead at the break.  The blocked punt in the 3^rd quarter led to 3 more points for Alabama.  FSU then fumbled the ensuing kickoff, which Bama turned into 8 (touchdown + 2pt conversion) 1 play later.  Late in the game came the blow that most people are taking away from the game, when FSU QB Deondre Francois was sacked from behind injuring his knee.  After the game, it was discovered that Francois would be out the rest of the year with an MCL tear in that knee.

Not to kick a man when he is down, but I don’t see this as big of a loss as others appear to, simply because I have never been a huge fan of Francois.  This Florida State team was built around a fierce defense and a safe QB.  That can still be the recipe for the Noles success behind freshman QB James Blackman, who probably has a higher ceiling than Francois when you really break it down.  Getting reps in this week vs LA-Monroe would have been nice for Blackman, but that game has been cancelled due to Hurricane Irma.  Blackman will now get his 1^st career start again rival Miami in Week 3. 

As for Alabama, they are good.  Shocking, I know!  However, I’ll stay off the hype train for at least a few weeks more.  The Alabama offense was very unimpressive against Florida State.  Yes, that could possibly be the best defense that Bama faces this year, but I still expected more growth from QB Jalen Hurts between his freshman and sophomore years.  Hurts completed just 10 passes in the game for 96 yards, 53 of which came on 1 play. 

Alabama’s five scoring drives looked like this:
9 plays, 44 yards = FG
5 plays, 85 yards = 53-yard TD pass
4 plays, -1 yard = FG
1 play, 11 yards = TD
6 plays, 16 yards = FG

Not all that impressive.  Alabama is good, but the offense needs to be much better if they want to be great.

WHAT ELSE I LEARNED IN WEEK ONE

*Michigan is in reload mode, not rebuild:  The Wolverine defense looked big and fast against the over-matched Gators.  The offense is still a work in progress, but with nearly 6 weeks before their next big challenge (at Penn State) the young team will have plenty of time to grow.

*Speaking of that Florida offense, it stinks:  The Gators had a 3-man QB race in camp and apparently still have no QB’s.  Could be another long season for the Jim McElwain and the Gators.

*The Big Ten East had a nice opening weekend:  Maryland was the surprise contributor there, with a 51-41 win over Texas, ruining the debut of new Longhorn Head Coach Tom Herman.  Rutgers didn’t look awful against Pac-12 North favorite Washington.  Indiana show signs of promise in their loss to Ohio State.  Michigan State and Penn State each won easily over their MAC opponents.

*Let's not hand the Heisman Trophy over to Sam Darnold just yet:  Darnold spent Week 1 doing his best impression of other recent USC QB after being thrown into the spotlight, Darnold opened the season throwing 2 INT’s and zero touchdowns in the Trojans win over Western Michigan. 

*West Virginia is going to score points this season:  They only scored 24 in their opening loss to Virginia Tech, but they put up over 600 yards of offense, which doesn’t happen every day against a Bud Foster led defense.  That point total is sure to go up once they get into conference play.

*Welcome to the spotlight Josh Jackson and TaQuon Marshall:  Jackson the freshman QB from Virginia Tech had 336 yards of offense in the game (235 and 1 TD passing, 101 and 1 TD running).  Marshall a junior QB for Georgia Tech accounted for 369 yards of offense including 249 and 5 touchdowns on the ground.  These two dynamic QB’s should make the wide-open ACC Coastal division even more interesting.

*UCLA is awful and Texas A&M is great:  In the 1^st half of football games.

*Texas A&M is awful and UCLA is great:  In the 2^nd half of football games.

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK TWO

*More big non-conference games:  After the opening weekend games that I mentioned earlier, it doesn’t slow down this week.  We get even more Power 5 vs Power 5 games this week.  The Primetime Line-Up is outstanding, with 3 games featuring Top 25 matchups.  Auburn @ Clemson (7pm, ESPN), Oklahoma @ Ohio State (7:30, ABC), Georgia @ Notre Dame (7:30, NBC).  The afternoon slate isn’t as good, but still some fun games.  Pitt @ Penn State, Iowa @ Iowa State, Northwestern @ Duke (The Education Bowl), TCU @ Arkansas, Indiana @ Virginia, Nebraska @ Oregon.

*A big non-conference game too:  Although the ACC gets underway with Louisville @ UNC and Wake Forest @ Boston College, the conference opener sure to have everyone’s attention is Stanford @ USC.  Two of the favorites in the PAC-12 face off in Week 2.  Earlier enough in the season for the loser to rebound, but the winner immediately becomes the conference favorite.  USC struggled stopping the Western Michigan running attack last week.  Stanford wins with defense and running the ball. 

*Great late night watching this Saturday:  Not to single out just those late west coast starts, because there really are good games up and down the schedule this week starting at noon all the way through the final game (San Diego State @ Arizona State, 11pm kickoff), but I always enjoy getting my last fix of college football in with good games.  This week we get some off the radar good matchups.  After the primetime schedule that will test the batteries on your remote control, we have five outstanding late night games kicking off after 10pm EST.  Minnesota @ Oregon State (10pm FS1), The Holy War between BYU and Utah (10:15, ESPN2), Boise State @ Washington State (10:30, ESPN), Houston @ Arizona (10:30, ESPNU) and the aforementioned SDSU/ASU game which is on the PAC12 Network.

A GAMBLING EYE

*Cincinnati (+35) @ Michigan – This might seem crazy but, I don’t think 35 is enough points.  Cincinnati struggled offensively against Austin Peay in their opener, my guess is that Michigan will be slightly tougher than AP.  You also must consider the Asshole Factor involved when giving up this many point, and Jim Harbaugh scores through the roof in that category.  Harbaugh has never shied away from running up the score, and this one would be against long-time Ohio State assistant Luke Fickell in his 1^st year at Cincinnati.

*Louisville (-10) @ North Carolina – Something seems off on this line.  North Carolina just lost to a putrid Cal team at home last week, now they are facing the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in Lamar Jackson who accounted for nearly 500 yards by himself last week.  On the scoreboard Louisville let Purdue hang around last week, but the Cardinals also fumbled twice inside the Purdue 2-yard line. Converting those two opportunities puts the game away early and could have turned that game into a rout.

*Buffalo (+16.5) @ Army – The last time that Army was this much of a favorite was in Germany 70+ years ago.  Army ran for over 500 yards last week against Fordham.  Yes, Buffalo is a step up in competition over Fordham, but it might not be as big of a step as you think.

*Indiana (-3) @ Virginia – I saw nothing from Virginia last week against William & Mary that lead me to believe that this game should be anything less than a touchdown spread in favor of Indiana.  The Hoosier hung with Ohio State for the 1^st 40 minutes of their game with the Buckeyes, only to let a few big plays break the game open.  UVA doesn’t have the players that tOSU does.  Indiana should be able to score in bunches against the Cavaliers and I don’t think UVA has the fire power to do the same.

*Pitt (+21.5) @ Penn State – I can’t speak rationally about this game due to my obvious bias, I just think 21.5 is a lot of points in a game between rivals.

*Nebraska (+13.5) @ Oregon – Nebraska gave up nearly 500 yards of offense and was outgained by Arkansas State last week.  Good luck stopping Royce Freeman and the Ducks.  Freeman finally seems healthy after two straight years battling injuries.  When healthy he is up there with Barkley and Guice as one of the best RB’s in the nation.  He ran for 150 and 4 scores last week.  I think he has another big week again the Cornhuskers shaky defense.

*Georgia (+4) @ Notre Dame – Georgia is breaking in a new QB after their starter was injured in their Week 1 win over Ap State, but call me crazy, I’m just not buying into this version of Brian Kelly’s squad just yet.  I think ND showed some promise with their dominating win over Temple, especially how they ran the ball, but Georgia will certainly present a tougher challenge and their defense looked very good last week.

*Stanford (+6) @ USC – The Trojans struggled mightily stopping the rushing attack from Western Michigan last week, now they face a much stiffer test in that area in Stanford.  The Broncos ran for 263 on the ground at a 5.5 average.  Stanford ran for 287 in their opener against Rice, with Bryce Love accounting for 180 on just 13 carries.

PLAYOFF PICKS

It is never too early to start projecting the playoff.

1. Alabama – Still not sold on them as the best team in the country, but who on their schedule is going to knock them off?

2. Ohio State – This week will be the Buckeyes toughest test of the season.  Get past Oklahoma and just don’t stumble up in Big Ten play.

3. Oklahoma State – They have the best offense in the country.  If the defense isn’t awful they should reach the Big XII Championship game with 1 loss, if that.

4. Clemson – The Tigers benefit the most from the Francois injury.  They should be favored in every game they play this year now.  They did look good last week, but it was Kent State.  We will know much more about them around 11:30 Saturday night.

NEXT FOUR:

USC – I have my concerns with the Trojans, but that doesn’t discount their talent.  Saturday will be their 1^st of many opportunities to make me a believer.

Stanford – I think I am higher on Stanford than most, but that is mainly due to their style of play and their coach.  They still have a question mark at QB, but Saturday should be a nice test for Keller Chryst as he continues to develop.

Oklahoma – Saturday will be Lincoln Riley’s 1^st test as a head coach.  The Sooners can afford to lose in Columbus, if they can then run through the Big XII unbeaten.  That would have to include wins in Stillwater for Bedlam, as well as, possibly beating the Cowboys a 2^nd time in a month in the return of the Big Ten Championship Game.

Wisconsin – Do I think Wisconsin is one of the best 8 teams in the country? NO.  Do I see them as having the make-up and more importantly the schedule to get them into the playoff conversation? YES.  The Badgers have a massive O-line, a stable of running backs and stingy defense, to go a long with a schedule that might be one of the easiest to navigate for a contender this year.  They miss Penn State and Ohio State.  They host Michigan, one week before the Wolverines biggest game of the season.

That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!

2017 College Football Season Preview

I have been too busy recently to post a College Football preview RANT, but that doesn’t mean I don’t have tons of thoughts, questions and predictions to make for the upcoming season.

Without further ado, my Cliff Notes version of a 2017 College Football Preview RANT.

Thursday was a fun kickoff to the College Football Season (last Saturday doesn’t count, that was the seasons Soft Open), but didn’t have any big games or surprises that you would hope for in the opening weekend.

Oklahoma State looked ridiculous on offense, as many expected.  At halftime, they averaged 12.5 yards per snap.  Mason Rudolph threw for 303 and 3 scores (also ran for 1), Justice Hill ran for 132 and a score and All-Everything James Washington had 6 catches for 145 and 2 scores.  And none of those players played a snap after the 1^st series of the 2^nd half.  The Ok State defense was just okay.  Tulsa kinda figured them out as the game went on and piled up over 430 yards of offense including 244 on the ground.  The Cowboys offense is as good as any in the country, but the defense needs to improve if they want to make their Preseason Top 10 ranking hold true.

Ohio State got a scare from Indiana in Bloomington.  Not often does Ohio State open on the road, but to play a conference game in Week 1, on a Thursday Night, might pretty cool to see from a power like Ohio State.  Indiana has big, physical WR’s that Ohio State’s young DB’s struggled matching up against.  The Buckeyes made some halftime adjustments and came out in the 2^nd half, putting more pressure on the QB and playing a little zone behind the front 4.  That caused some issues for Indiana and gave the Buckeyes time to get their offense going.  It was certainly not a pretty performance by JT Barrett and the rest of the Buckeyes on the offensive side of the ball, but you could see the in-game adjustments that they were making and how they began to settle into the game after they figured out what was working.  The Buckeyes have a stiff test next week when they host Oklahoma, but after that they go over a month of playing absolute garbage teams, before travelling to Nebraska Oct. 14^th.  The Buckeyes will be okay, trust me.

Other quick thoughts on Thursday Night…

We almost had a QB that threw 6 INT’s (Rhode Island) win a game, but Central Michigan survived a 3OT scare from the FCS team.

Cincinnati could be an absolute train wreck in year 1 of the Luke Fickell Era.  Yes, Tommy Tuberville left the cabinets pretty bare, but Austin Peay won almost every statistical category except score.  AP had more yards, more 1^st down and dominated time of possession, but lost the turnover battle 2-0 and the game 26-14.  Let me remind you that the FCS Govenors have now lost 44 of their last 45.

Onto Saturday.

There are 6 games on Saturday matching up Power 5 conference teams.  Despite, that only a few really are all that interesting.

Maryland @ Texas – Sure it is Tom Herman’s 1^st game at Texas, but Maryland is not a good football team.  Texas will win big and everyone will anoint him the next big thing (everyone that already hasn’t, that is).

Cal @ North Carolina – It’s always fun for those West Coast teams to travel across the country and have to play an early kickoff.  North Carolina lost a lot from last year, but this game still shouldn’t be close.

South Carolina vs NC State (in Charlotte) – I’m really intrigued by this game actually.  I think that SC will be much improved in year 2 of Will Muschamp, but I also want to see what all the hype surrounding NC State is about.  Please someone tell me what I am missing except that the Wolfpack have one elite defensive lineman and a pretty good D-Line as a group!  Someone told me earlier this week that they have a the 3^rd best talent in the ACC and could be a darkhorse playoff team.  WHAT?!  Dave Doeren has done NOTHING at NC State in his 4 years there, yet somehow this team is expected to suddenly challenge Clemson and Florida State in the ACC Atlantic?  To tell you how much NOTHING Doeren has achieved at NC State, he is 25-26 (a losing record!!!) and 9-23 in ACC play, going under 500 in the league all 4 years.  The Doeren led Wolfpack are 3-23 in games vs Power 5 teams that finished the season with a winning record, and all 3 of those wins came LAST YEAR.  Those wins were against Wake Forest, UNC and Vanderbilt.  Not exactly your powerhouse names.  NC State is also 1-3 against Boston College in his 4 years at the helm.  BC is one of the worst teams in all the Power 5 conferences.  So let’s slow down on the NC State love until they beat a team or two with a pulse.  By the way, I have the Pack going 7-5 this season, putting Doeren over .500 for his tenure.  That may be enough to get a statue built in Raleigh.

Michigan vs Florida (in Arlington) – The names involved make this sound like a great game, but in reality, both these teams are huge question marks going into their opener.  Michigan has the fewest returning starters in the nation this year.  Florida is starting a FR quarterback and has at least 10 players suspended for the opener.  For as big of a draw these two name-brand schools are, this game will not be played at a very high level and most likely won’t tell you anything about either team.  I expect both teams to be vastly improved heading into October as opposed to how they look heading into September.

Louisville vs Purdue (in Indianapolis) – Lamar Jackson lost a lot of pieces from last year, but he is still one of the most dynamic players in the game.  Purdue is in re-build mode under 1^st year head coach Jeff Brohm. 

Florida State vs Alabama (in Atlanta) – Two playoffs hopefuls squaring off in Week 1 on a neutral site field, the same one that we will host the National Championship Game in 5 months.  This is as good as it gets for the opening weekend of the season.  I like Alabama in this game, simply because I still don’t trust Deondre Francois, the Noles QB.  Both teams have very skilled, fast and physical defenses.  I expect it to be a very defensive struggle, especially with since both quarterbacks in the game are vastly overrated in my eyes.

It doesn’t end with Saturday though this week.  In my mind three of the best games come on Sunday and Monday.  Sunday, we have VT vs WVU in DC, as well as UCLA vs Texas A&M in the Rose Bowl.  Monday, it will be Georgia Tech and Tennessee in Atlanta.  All 3 games between Power 5 schools playing for something.  VT and WVU used to be a pretty big rivalry before both left the Big East.  In Pasadena, it is the season opener for 2 coaches that are square on the “hot seat” as the season begins.  In Atlanta, conference bragging rights are on the line as the ACC and SEC meet in the 3^rd match-up of the week.

Upsets To Watch (and Root) For:

Bowling Green (+17.5) @ Michigan State – Sparty still has concerns carrying over from last year.  I think they win, but those points are mighty tempting.

Wyoming (+11.5) @ Iowa – The Hawkeyes seem to get off to slow starts every year.  Wyoming and QB Josh Allen are good enough to beat Iowa if the Hawkeyes don’t come to play.

South Carolina (+5) vs NC State – I think I made it pretty clear I am not on the NC State bandwagon.  GO GAMECOCKS!

Temple (+18) @ Notre Dame – I almost hope this happens just to watch the Brian Kelly press conference afterwards and see Twitter burn.  I don’t like Temple to win, but you spot anyone 18 against Notre Dame and I like their chances.

Troy (+11) @ Boise State – This will be the worst Boise State team in a LONG time.  That is mainly because the bar is so high for them, but Troy is no joke.  Troy was a 10-win team last year that put a score into Clemson in Week 2 before falling to the eventual National Champs 30-24.

Southern Miss (+10) vs Kentucky – Not often do Group of 5 schools get an SEC team to play on their home field.   Southern Miss was a 9-point winner last year in Lexington, no reason they can’t do it again in front of their home crowd.

Middle Tennessee State (+3.5) vs Vanderbilt – It is not often that Vanderbilt is giving points on the road, when that happens take the points and don’t ask questions.

SEASON PREDICTIONS:

ACC Championship – Florida State over Pitt (Yes, it’s a complete homer pick I realize that, but the Coastal is wide open, why not Pitt???)

B1G Championship – Ohio State over Wisconsin

Big XII Championship – Oklahoma State over Oklahoma (I am racking my brain to find someone other than OU to pick here, I just can’t do it.)

PAC-12 Championship – USC over Stanford.  These 2 teams play in Week 2, which should be a nice preview for this game 4 months later.

SEC Championship – Alabama over Florida, AGAIN… The SEC East is once again full of average teams.  Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, SC, Missouri, can one of these teams just please make the jump and be the alpha dog in this division?!

Group of 5 Teams to Watch for the right to a NY6 Bowl:
Wyoming
Colorado State
South Florida
Central Florida
Memphis

PLAYOFF:
1) Alabama
2) Ohio State
3) Florida State
4) Oklahoma State

NATIONAL CHAMPION:
Ohio State

Neal Huntington Must Go

The Pirates have failed their team and their fans.

Neal Huntington failed the Pirates players and their fan base.

General Manager Neal Huntington’s contract with the Pirates expires with the team after this season, with a team option for the 2018 season.  He does not deserve to be back with the organization.

Yes, Huntington has done a lot of good for the Pirates.  He helped build the 1^st playoff team in over^nd straight season that the Pirates lost at home to a dominant pitcher in the Wild Card Game, Huntington has done nothing to move the team forward.  For that reason, the Pirates need to find a new General Manager for the 2018 season.

20 years.  He also oversaw a team that won 98 games in 2015.  He was the General Manager of a playoff team for three consecutive seasons, something not done with the Pirates since 3 straight NLCS appearances in the early 90’s.  Since the end of the 2015 season, which was the 2

Huntington supporters have lots to defend him with.  Two of the best players (Josh Harrison & Felipe Rivero) this season were acquired via trades made by Huntington in his time with the Pirates.  He pushed all the right buttons getting leaders like AJ Burnett, Russell Martin, Francisco Liriano and Edison Volquez among others.  He also has signed players like Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco and Andrew McCutchen to very team-friendly contract extensions. 

More recently however, Huntington did nothing, NOTHING!

After leading the Pirates to 3 straight playoff appearances, the Pirates missed the playoffs in 2016.  To make sure that didn’t happen again, Huntington did NOTHING.

On December 1^st, Jung Ho Kang drove his BMW at a high speed over a median, hitting a barrier and left the scene, later receiving a DUI while is South Korea.  It was his 3^rd DUI, THIRD!!!  Huntington later admitted that he and the Pirates were unaware of the previous two incidents.  After losing his 3^rd baseman to a possible MLB suspension, or worse and what took place, having a suspended visa preventing him to come back to the United States to play for the Pirates, Huntington once again did NOTHING.

On February 10^th (71 days after the Kang DUI) Huntington acquired Kang’s replacement.  He waited until less than a week before Spring Training started before attempting to replace his 2^nd best hitter from the previous season.  He replaced him with Phil Gosselin.  Gosselin played a total of 216 games in 4 Major League seasons before being acquired by Huntington and the Pirates.  He played more than 46 games just once in his 1^st 4 seasons.  Gosselin, who had a career total of 33 extra base hits in 460 AB’s was the replacement for Kang, who had 40 extra base hits in 2016 alone.  UNACCEPTABLE.

The Pirates then had their starting centerfielder Marte suspended for 80 games for PED use.  Huntington reacted to that by doing… NOTHING.  Literally, the Pirates never made any roster moves to acquire an outfielder after losing their best player from the 2016 season for half of the 2017 season.

Already playing with a makeshift outfield including guys like John Jaso, Jose Osuna and Adam Frazier on July 21^st, Gregory Polanco injured his hamstring and went to the DL, leaving McCutchen as the only outfielder from the Season Opener on the active roster.  On his weekly radio show July 23^rd, Huntington said he would be in the market to add a 4^th outfielder.  He didn’t.  The Pirates lost 6 of the 8 games since Polanco went to the DL.

Jung Ho Kang DUI, Huntington did nothing.

Starling Marte suspension, Huntington did nothing.

Gregory Polanco injury, Huntington did nothing.

After all of that, I was okay with Huntington.  He was waving the white flag and he was going to sell at the trade deadline.  Who could blame him after all the unexpected hurdles that came up over the past 8 months? 

The Pirates had a couple of expiring contracts that he could trade off at the deadline, allowing some younger prospects a chance to prove themselves over the final two months of the regular season.  They also had some very nice trade assets of controllable players that they had a chance to flip for some nice young prospects.  Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole, and Josh Harrison all would have brought back a nice haul for the team, which has a nice young core.

Nope.  Once again Huntington did NOTHING.  Well, almost nothing.  He traded away Tony Watson to the Dodgers about an hour before the trade deadline.  He failed to move other expiring contracts like Juan Nicasio and John Jaso.  He did make another deal however.  He acquired 40 year old relief pitcher Joaquin Benoit.  Benoit is FORTY years old and his contract is up after this season, and THAT is the only MLB player Huntington acquired at the deadline.

Correction… 40 year old Benoit is the only Major League player that Huntington has acquired since February 10^th, when he acquired… Phil Gosselin.

Neal Huntington did nothing to improve the Pirates this season, NOTHING.  He did nothing when Kang got his DUI.  He did nothing when Marte was suspended for 80 games.  He did nothing when Polanco was injured in the midst of the team’s most important stretch of the season.  He did nothing at the trade deadline.

For those reasons, when his club option comes up for the 2018 season, there is just one thing the Pirates should do… NOTHING!