We are 8 into the college football season and I look back
and wonder, have we learned anything yet about this season?
Think about it, all the questions that fans ask themselves
as the season goes on are still unanswered.
So in this weeks’ review I am going to do my best to answer them or at
least try to answer them.
Before we get started on that though, there are 2 other
matters that we DO KNOW that need to be discussed. First, did you see the end of that Florida
State – Georgia Tech game?! If not, check it out!
2 weeks in a row now, a last second special teams play goes completely haywire and results in a possible CFB Playoff team losing. Last week Michigan, this week Florida State.
And how can we not mention the mess at Miami? Lose by 58, the worst loss in school history. Fire Al Golden (which we all knew was coming). Now where does Miami go? As you know I love coaching searches and the domino effect it has nationwide, I just didn’t think we would have so many openings in the middle of the season. Normally in college football coaches almost ALWAYS last the season, simply because the number restriction put on by the NCAA for coaches allowed per team. It isn’t very easy to replace a head coach when every coach is stretched thin already with their prior duties. We knew it was bad for Golden at Miami, but this bad?
2 weeks in a row now, a last second special teams play goes completely haywire and results in a possible CFB Playoff team losing. Last week Michigan, this week Florida State.
And how can we not mention the mess at Miami? Lose by 58, the worst loss in school history. Fire Al Golden (which we all knew was coming). Now where does Miami go? As you know I love coaching searches and the domino effect it has nationwide, I just didn’t think we would have so many openings in the middle of the season. Normally in college football coaches almost ALWAYS last the season, simply because the number restriction put on by the NCAA for coaches allowed per team. It isn’t very easy to replace a head coach when every coach is stretched thin already with their prior duties. We knew it was bad for Golden at Miami, but this bad?
Okay, on to the important questions of the season, not who
is going to replace Golden, that is for another time (I plan on writing a
coaching rant soon).
The top offense in
the country, Baylor, is now going to be without their starting quarterback Seth
Russell for an extended period of time, can they still win without him? Can they make it to the CFB Playoff without
him?
First instinct is to say, “No way, Baylor is done!” But then you take a closer look and see that Russell’s backup is not terrible. I realize that isn’t a ringing endorsement, but the thought behind that is, “How good do you really need to be in that system at Baylor?” Each of the last 6 years Baylor has averaged over 40 points a game and that is with 4 different quarterbacks. So is it the player or the system, I’m leaning towards system. That being said, the backup in question, Jarrett Stidham, is a true freshman that was the 6th ranked dual threat QB in the country last year and had offers from pretty much every school in the country. He chose to play at Baylor and for Art Briles. In limited time this year Stidham has gone 24-28 (85.7%!!!!!) for 331 yards, 6 touchdowns and no interceptions. He has also run for 26 yards and a touchdown. There will obviously be a drop off from Russell, a guy who has played in the system for 3 years and has over 300 more pass attempts then Stidham, a guy who was playing high school ball at this point last year. Luckily for Stidham this injury came at the best possible time. Baylor is off this week before going on the road to Kansas State Thursday November 5th. Kansas State has yet to win a Big XII game this season. He will get extra time and extra reps before he plays in that K-State game, then he will get a long week with extra reps before his 1st test, Oklahoma, which is still 3 weeks away. Is it an ideal situation for Baylor, no, but can they still win? Yes, I think they can.
First instinct is to say, “No way, Baylor is done!” But then you take a closer look and see that Russell’s backup is not terrible. I realize that isn’t a ringing endorsement, but the thought behind that is, “How good do you really need to be in that system at Baylor?” Each of the last 6 years Baylor has averaged over 40 points a game and that is with 4 different quarterbacks. So is it the player or the system, I’m leaning towards system. That being said, the backup in question, Jarrett Stidham, is a true freshman that was the 6th ranked dual threat QB in the country last year and had offers from pretty much every school in the country. He chose to play at Baylor and for Art Briles. In limited time this year Stidham has gone 24-28 (85.7%!!!!!) for 331 yards, 6 touchdowns and no interceptions. He has also run for 26 yards and a touchdown. There will obviously be a drop off from Russell, a guy who has played in the system for 3 years and has over 300 more pass attempts then Stidham, a guy who was playing high school ball at this point last year. Luckily for Stidham this injury came at the best possible time. Baylor is off this week before going on the road to Kansas State Thursday November 5th. Kansas State has yet to win a Big XII game this season. He will get extra time and extra reps before he plays in that K-State game, then he will get a long week with extra reps before his 1st test, Oklahoma, which is still 3 weeks away. Is it an ideal situation for Baylor, no, but can they still win? Yes, I think they can.
Is Washington State
under Mike Leech actually good?
Simple answer, YES! Mike Leach has been off the radar since being fired at Texas Tech in 2009. While at TTU, he never had a losing record and went 84-43 in 10 seasons. In his first 3 seasons at Washington State, he was 12-25 and was surely on the hot seat entering his 4th season at the school. After losing the season opener to FCS Portland State, that seat only got hotter. Since that game the Cougars have won 5 of 6 including road wins at Oregon and Arizona. WSU is now 5-2 overall, and 3-1 in PAC-12 play entering this week’s game with Stanford who is the only team ahead of them in the PAC-12 North. As long as QB Luke Falk and WR Gabe Marks stay healthy, this could be a special year in Pullman. 2 more wins this season and it would give them the most wins since 2003.
Simple answer, YES! Mike Leach has been off the radar since being fired at Texas Tech in 2009. While at TTU, he never had a losing record and went 84-43 in 10 seasons. In his first 3 seasons at Washington State, he was 12-25 and was surely on the hot seat entering his 4th season at the school. After losing the season opener to FCS Portland State, that seat only got hotter. Since that game the Cougars have won 5 of 6 including road wins at Oregon and Arizona. WSU is now 5-2 overall, and 3-1 in PAC-12 play entering this week’s game with Stanford who is the only team ahead of them in the PAC-12 North. As long as QB Luke Falk and WR Gabe Marks stay healthy, this could be a special year in Pullman. 2 more wins this season and it would give them the most wins since 2003.
Has there been any
conference that has proven they deserve at least one spot in the CFB Playoff,
regardless of who their eventual champions in?
Of course we could go crazy here and use ridiculous examples of why no conference is safe, but that would just be a waste of time. Plus, even without going overboard it isn’t a sure thing that any conference is safe. We are going to just focus on the teams that remain undefeated or have just 1 loss, because nobody with 2 losses is going to make the playoff. Let’s go conference by conference.
ACC: (Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina & Pitt)
Clemson is the front-runner in the ACC and if they stay undefeated it will be very difficult to keep them out of the playoff. However, if they do stumble along the way, I find it hard to believe that there would still be a spot for an ACC team. Florida St losing to Georgia Tech last week all but eliminates them from contention. They do still have 2 big road games to help their cause, playing Clemson and Florida. One key for both Florida State and Clemson is that whoever wins the ACC Coastal division be 11-1 or 10-2 going into the conference championship game. Duke, North Carolina and Pitt are all still undefeated in the ACC from the Coastal division, but they also all still play each other, starting this week when UNC travels to Pittsburgh. Pitt has a slight advantage in the ACC race, as they are 4-0 in conference play, where both Duke and North Carolina are 3-0. Pitt’s lone loss is to an undefeated Iowa team, which certainly helps the Panthers. They also have a chance to make a statement with 1 last non-conference game against Notre Dame next week. Pitt gets North Carolina at home and travels to Duke in November. North Carolina, who’s lost to South Carolina the 1st week of the season looks a lot worse now than it did 6 weeks ago. UNC’s fate will be determined in their next 2 games as they host Duke next week after their Thursday night game with Pitt this week. Duke, also with just 1 loss, lost to Northwestern, which like UNC looked better a few weeks ago than it does now. The best case for the ACC is to get Pitt into the championship game at 11-1, with that lone loss being to an undefeated Big Ten team. The ACC then needs the winner of the FSU-Clemson game to run the table and win the ACC Championship game. Anything less probably leaves the ACC out of the playoff picture.
Of course we could go crazy here and use ridiculous examples of why no conference is safe, but that would just be a waste of time. Plus, even without going overboard it isn’t a sure thing that any conference is safe. We are going to just focus on the teams that remain undefeated or have just 1 loss, because nobody with 2 losses is going to make the playoff. Let’s go conference by conference.
ACC: (Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina & Pitt)
Clemson is the front-runner in the ACC and if they stay undefeated it will be very difficult to keep them out of the playoff. However, if they do stumble along the way, I find it hard to believe that there would still be a spot for an ACC team. Florida St losing to Georgia Tech last week all but eliminates them from contention. They do still have 2 big road games to help their cause, playing Clemson and Florida. One key for both Florida State and Clemson is that whoever wins the ACC Coastal division be 11-1 or 10-2 going into the conference championship game. Duke, North Carolina and Pitt are all still undefeated in the ACC from the Coastal division, but they also all still play each other, starting this week when UNC travels to Pittsburgh. Pitt has a slight advantage in the ACC race, as they are 4-0 in conference play, where both Duke and North Carolina are 3-0. Pitt’s lone loss is to an undefeated Iowa team, which certainly helps the Panthers. They also have a chance to make a statement with 1 last non-conference game against Notre Dame next week. Pitt gets North Carolina at home and travels to Duke in November. North Carolina, who’s lost to South Carolina the 1st week of the season looks a lot worse now than it did 6 weeks ago. UNC’s fate will be determined in their next 2 games as they host Duke next week after their Thursday night game with Pitt this week. Duke, also with just 1 loss, lost to Northwestern, which like UNC looked better a few weeks ago than it does now. The best case for the ACC is to get Pitt into the championship game at 11-1, with that lone loss being to an undefeated Big Ten team. The ACC then needs the winner of the FSU-Clemson game to run the table and win the ACC Championship game. Anything less probably leaves the ACC out of the playoff picture.
Big XII: (Baylor, Oklahoma,
Oklahoma State, TCU)
The nice thing about the Big XII is that they have a balanced schedule where all 10 teams play each other. The downfall is that they do not have a championship game and that leaves the potential for a tie atop the conference like last year, when Baylor and TCU were both left out of the playoff after finishing tied for 1st place. The interesting thing to consider in this instance is that the conference also set up the scheduling that none of these 4 teams have played each other yet. They won’t play this week either. The Last Man Standing Contest in the Big XII begins November 7th. Oklahoma is the 1 team in this group that already has a loss, and it was an ugly one, losing to rival Texas. The Big XII could be on the outside looking in once again this year when the playoff teams are announced if Oklahoma runs the table, giving every team at least 1 loss. A tie atop the standings could also prove to be damaging to the Big XII. The Big XII will be rooting for either Baylor, TCU or Oklahoma State to make a clean sweep over the next month, giving them a clear cut candidate for the playoff.
The nice thing about the Big XII is that they have a balanced schedule where all 10 teams play each other. The downfall is that they do not have a championship game and that leaves the potential for a tie atop the conference like last year, when Baylor and TCU were both left out of the playoff after finishing tied for 1st place. The interesting thing to consider in this instance is that the conference also set up the scheduling that none of these 4 teams have played each other yet. They won’t play this week either. The Last Man Standing Contest in the Big XII begins November 7th. Oklahoma is the 1 team in this group that already has a loss, and it was an ugly one, losing to rival Texas. The Big XII could be on the outside looking in once again this year when the playoff teams are announced if Oklahoma runs the table, giving every team at least 1 loss. A tie atop the standings could also prove to be damaging to the Big XII. The Big XII will be rooting for either Baylor, TCU or Oklahoma State to make a clean sweep over the next month, giving them a clear cut candidate for the playoff.
Big Ten: (Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State)
The Big Ten, like the Big XII will have a chance to sort itself out on the field. Michigan State and Ohio State still are yet to play, and the winner of that (and the EAST) will most likely square off against Iowa. The Hawkeyes would have to lose 2 of their last 5 games and have Wisconsin win out for them not to make the Big Ten Championship. Now the biggest question is does an undefeated Iowa team get into the playoff? Iowa’s best non-conference win is Pitt. Their best win of the season will be in the Big Ten Championship if they end up undefeated. I don’t know if that is good enough. If either Ohio State or Michigan finish the season unbeaten, they will certainly get into the playoff. One interesting scenario is what if Michigan beats Ohio State? If that happens, there is a chance that there is a 3-way tie for the Big Ten East between Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State. A Michigan-Iowa Big Ten Championship Game would not be good for the Big Ten. It would also open up the possibility of a 1-loss Ohio State or Michigan State team getting into the playoff without even playing for the conference championship.
The Big Ten, like the Big XII will have a chance to sort itself out on the field. Michigan State and Ohio State still are yet to play, and the winner of that (and the EAST) will most likely square off against Iowa. The Hawkeyes would have to lose 2 of their last 5 games and have Wisconsin win out for them not to make the Big Ten Championship. Now the biggest question is does an undefeated Iowa team get into the playoff? Iowa’s best non-conference win is Pitt. Their best win of the season will be in the Big Ten Championship if they end up undefeated. I don’t know if that is good enough. If either Ohio State or Michigan finish the season unbeaten, they will certainly get into the playoff. One interesting scenario is what if Michigan beats Ohio State? If that happens, there is a chance that there is a 3-way tie for the Big Ten East between Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State. A Michigan-Iowa Big Ten Championship Game would not be good for the Big Ten. It would also open up the possibility of a 1-loss Ohio State or Michigan State team getting into the playoff without even playing for the conference championship.
PAC-12: (Stanford,
Utah)
This is about as simple as it gets, Utah is in the PAC-12 South and Stanford is in the PAC-12 North, those are the only 2 teams with a chance to play in the playoff from this conference. The winner of the championship game gets in, the loser is out. That is, if both of these are the 2 teams that are representing their divisions in that championship game. Utah plays in the tougher division, but they have already played USC and Arizona State. Their biggest remaining game is UCLA, which could steal that bid to the conference championship game with a win. The PAC-12 South is another division (like the Big Ten East) that could have a sloppy tiebreaker in play. Utah is currently in 1st place, but UCLA, USC and Arizona State are all just 1 game back. In the North, Stanford has a 1 ½ game lead over 2nd place Washington State and could all but wrap up the division with a win in Pullman this week. The downfall for Stanford however could be their regular season finale, a non-conference game against Notre Dame.
This is about as simple as it gets, Utah is in the PAC-12 South and Stanford is in the PAC-12 North, those are the only 2 teams with a chance to play in the playoff from this conference. The winner of the championship game gets in, the loser is out. That is, if both of these are the 2 teams that are representing their divisions in that championship game. Utah plays in the tougher division, but they have already played USC and Arizona State. Their biggest remaining game is UCLA, which could steal that bid to the conference championship game with a win. The PAC-12 South is another division (like the Big Ten East) that could have a sloppy tiebreaker in play. Utah is currently in 1st place, but UCLA, USC and Arizona State are all just 1 game back. In the North, Stanford has a 1 ½ game lead over 2nd place Washington State and could all but wrap up the division with a win in Pullman this week. The downfall for Stanford however could be their regular season finale, a non-conference game against Notre Dame.
SEC: (Alabama,
Florida, LSU)
If one of these 3 teams win the SEC, they will be in the CFB Playoff. Florida has the easiest path, playing in the SEC East. Florida will still have to beat Florida State to close out their regular season, then whoever comes out of the SEC West. Both LSU and Alabama still play each other (November 7th) as well as others from the SEC West. If any of these 3 schools win out, they will be in the CFB Playoff.
If one of these 3 teams win the SEC, they will be in the CFB Playoff. Florida has the easiest path, playing in the SEC East. Florida will still have to beat Florida State to close out their regular season, then whoever comes out of the SEC West. Both LSU and Alabama still play each other (November 7th) as well as others from the SEC West. If any of these 3 schools win out, they will be in the CFB Playoff.
Has there been any
conference that has proven they should be in consideration for 2 of the 4 CFB
Playoff spots?
This is something a lot of people have talked about, especially about the SEC, but honestly I think it will take a lot to convince anyone that one conference deserves half of the bids to the playoff. The playoff is already set up that 1 conference champion is left out, if 2 teams from one conference get in, that means 2 champions will be left out, while 1 team that didn’t win their conference makes it. I don’t think this is likely to happen this year, but let’s take a look at any of the possibilities.
ACC:
The ACC is widely considered the weakest conference of the Power 5, fair or not, and many think that even an undefeated Clemson would be the one left out if all the other conferences have high ranking teams. That being said, I think it is safe to say that the ACC will not have 2 entrants into the playoff this season. The best the ACC could do this year would be to have 2 1-loss teams. It would take convincing for the selection committee to put in 1 team from the ACC with 1 loss, let alone 2.
This is something a lot of people have talked about, especially about the SEC, but honestly I think it will take a lot to convince anyone that one conference deserves half of the bids to the playoff. The playoff is already set up that 1 conference champion is left out, if 2 teams from one conference get in, that means 2 champions will be left out, while 1 team that didn’t win their conference makes it. I don’t think this is likely to happen this year, but let’s take a look at any of the possibilities.
ACC:
The ACC is widely considered the weakest conference of the Power 5, fair or not, and many think that even an undefeated Clemson would be the one left out if all the other conferences have high ranking teams. That being said, I think it is safe to say that the ACC will not have 2 entrants into the playoff this season. The best the ACC could do this year would be to have 2 1-loss teams. It would take convincing for the selection committee to put in 1 team from the ACC with 1 loss, let alone 2.
Big XII:
The Big XII has a chance for 2 playoff spots after getting shut out last year, but it will take some crazy happenings for it to fall in place. The 2 likely candidates are Baylor and TCU. Both schools are undefeated and have been near the top of the rankings all season. These 2 play the 2nd to last week of the season AT TCU. The only way I see both teams making the playoff is if they play each other in a closely contended game and the home team (TCU) wins. Then again, that exact thing happened last year, with Baylor winning a 61-58 showdown at home last year and both teams were still shutout. However, that is when they both had 1 loss. Maybe an undefeated TCU and a 1-loss Baylor team could make it this year, if everything else falls right for them.
Big Ten:
The Big Ten has a few different ways that I could see them landing 2 teams in the playoff (even though I think the conference as a whole is very overrated). The first way is if an undefeated Iowa wins the Big Ten Championship game over an undefeated Ohio State or Michigan State. In that instance, I believe that Iowa gets in by default, but I think the loser of that game also has a strong case to make the playoff if there are no other undefeated conference champions to pick from.
PAC-12:
The PAC-12 is much like the ACC where they may not even get 1 team in the playoff let alone holding out hope for 2. The PAC-12 may even have a tougher hill to climb than the ACC however. Where the ACC has the potential of 2 1-loss teams, there is no chance of that in the PAC-12. With no undefeated teams remaining and just Utah and Stanford with 1-loss, the best the conference could do is 1 remaining 1-loss team after the conference championship game.
SEC:
The SEC has 3 teams that could end the regular season with 1-loss, 2 of them which would end up in the SEC Championship. I think there is a distinct possibility that the winner of the SEC Championship and the 2nd place SEC West team or, if Florida wins the SEC Championship over an undefeated LSU team, both of those teams make the playoff. Obviously this would all depend on how the other conferences finish, but I feel like this is the most likely situation for 1 conference to claim to playoff spots.
The Big XII has a chance for 2 playoff spots after getting shut out last year, but it will take some crazy happenings for it to fall in place. The 2 likely candidates are Baylor and TCU. Both schools are undefeated and have been near the top of the rankings all season. These 2 play the 2nd to last week of the season AT TCU. The only way I see both teams making the playoff is if they play each other in a closely contended game and the home team (TCU) wins. Then again, that exact thing happened last year, with Baylor winning a 61-58 showdown at home last year and both teams were still shutout. However, that is when they both had 1 loss. Maybe an undefeated TCU and a 1-loss Baylor team could make it this year, if everything else falls right for them.
Big Ten:
The Big Ten has a few different ways that I could see them landing 2 teams in the playoff (even though I think the conference as a whole is very overrated). The first way is if an undefeated Iowa wins the Big Ten Championship game over an undefeated Ohio State or Michigan State. In that instance, I believe that Iowa gets in by default, but I think the loser of that game also has a strong case to make the playoff if there are no other undefeated conference champions to pick from.
PAC-12:
The PAC-12 is much like the ACC where they may not even get 1 team in the playoff let alone holding out hope for 2. The PAC-12 may even have a tougher hill to climb than the ACC however. Where the ACC has the potential of 2 1-loss teams, there is no chance of that in the PAC-12. With no undefeated teams remaining and just Utah and Stanford with 1-loss, the best the conference could do is 1 remaining 1-loss team after the conference championship game.
SEC:
The SEC has 3 teams that could end the regular season with 1-loss, 2 of them which would end up in the SEC Championship. I think there is a distinct possibility that the winner of the SEC Championship and the 2nd place SEC West team or, if Florida wins the SEC Championship over an undefeated LSU team, both of those teams make the playoff. Obviously this would all depend on how the other conferences finish, but I feel like this is the most likely situation for 1 conference to claim to playoff spots.
What 1-loss teams are
in the best position to make a serious claim at a playoff bid?
Notre Dame as an independent has a lot working against it when it comes to the playoff selection committee, but they have put themselves into a good position this season. Their only loss is to an undefeated Clemson team on the road. They have also played just enough other Power 5 teams to make themselves warrant their high ranking. At the beginning of the season their schedule looked brutal, but teams like Georgia Tech and Texas have not lived up to their preseason expectations, allowing the Irish to get to this point in their schedule with just 1 loss. Notre Dame still has 3 games remaining over ranked teams, all on the road. If ND can run the table they would have to be considered one of the top 1-loss teams in the country. There are 10 teams remaining from Power 5 conferences (plus Notre Dame) that have just 1 loss. Let’s see how they would rank with the rest of the 1-loss teams in the country at this point.
1) Stanford would be my top 1-loss team right now. They are playing as good as anyone in the country and their only loss came in Week 1, when ESPN forced them to travel east and still play a noon game (I’ve discussed this in the past, I’m not a fan of this). Stanford has already beaten USC on the road and have a 21-point win over UCLA under their belt. They close the season with home games against Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame. The last game will be a make shift elimination game for playoff contention if both enter that game still with just 1 loss.
2) Alabama is my number 2 team and I think there is a pretty big drop off between 2 and 3. Alabama has looked great at times this year, but also very un-Alabama like other times this season. Their loss came at home against Mississippi. They didn’t look like a playoff team this week at home either, when they needed a last minute touchdown to beat a pretty average Tennessee team. The good thing for Alabama is that they still have plenty of opportunity to prove themselves with upcoming games vs LSU and at Mississippi State in back to back weeks. If they take care of those 2 and the final 2 regular season games, they will also get a highly ranked Florida team in the SEC Championship Game.
3) Florida got on the map after pasting Ole Miss 38-10, just 2 weeks after Mississippi beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The Gators then pounded the 2-time defending SEC East Champion Missouri, 21-3 on the road. Florida also had a solid showing, losing to LSU by 1 touchdown, while playing with their back-up QB. Florida should only improve as new QB Treon Harris gets more reps and more comfortable in the offense. Playing in the SEC East, they have a pretty easy road to the SEC Championship game, they do however still have their end of the season rivalry game with Florida State, another 1-loss team.
4) Notre Dame as mentioned above, has put themselves in a good position to claim a playoff spot with just 1-loss. They do still have 3 road challenges ahead, when they take on undefeated Temple this week, 1-loss Pitt next week and another 1-loss Stanford team the final week of the season.
5) Florida State is ranked in this position right now, but they still have 2 games on the road against Clemson and Florida, which could certainly knock them from playoff contention. The Seminoles started the season slow, but had been playing better before tripping up last week on the road to Georgia Tech.
6) Oklahoma is still in contention to win the Big XII, but their lone loss was a bad one, losing to Texas while the Longhorns were in the midst of playing their worst football of the year. The Sooners still have a chance to prove they belong, as they have 3 games left against undefeated teams (TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma St).
7) Utah is a team that I’m still not completely sold on. Their best wins are against overrated Oregon and Cal teams as well as beating Michigan in Week 1. That was not the same Michigan team that has taken the field recently in Ann Arbor. With a pretty weak remaining schedule, UCLA looks like they would be the only team that could challenge the Utes. Utah would still have a PAC-12 Championship game with Stanford if they survive the final 5 games on their schedule.
8-10) Duke/UNC/Pitt I don’t think that any of these teams are really a threat to make a run to an 11-1 finish of the regular season. All 3 are still undefeated in the ACC Coastal division, but I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility that the division winner still loses 1 more game. These 3 teams all still play each other, so things should sort themselves out, but I wouldn’t consider any a real threat to be sitting with 1 loss at the end of the season, putting themselves in playoff talk.
Notre Dame as an independent has a lot working against it when it comes to the playoff selection committee, but they have put themselves into a good position this season. Their only loss is to an undefeated Clemson team on the road. They have also played just enough other Power 5 teams to make themselves warrant their high ranking. At the beginning of the season their schedule looked brutal, but teams like Georgia Tech and Texas have not lived up to their preseason expectations, allowing the Irish to get to this point in their schedule with just 1 loss. Notre Dame still has 3 games remaining over ranked teams, all on the road. If ND can run the table they would have to be considered one of the top 1-loss teams in the country. There are 10 teams remaining from Power 5 conferences (plus Notre Dame) that have just 1 loss. Let’s see how they would rank with the rest of the 1-loss teams in the country at this point.
1) Stanford would be my top 1-loss team right now. They are playing as good as anyone in the country and their only loss came in Week 1, when ESPN forced them to travel east and still play a noon game (I’ve discussed this in the past, I’m not a fan of this). Stanford has already beaten USC on the road and have a 21-point win over UCLA under their belt. They close the season with home games against Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame. The last game will be a make shift elimination game for playoff contention if both enter that game still with just 1 loss.
2) Alabama is my number 2 team and I think there is a pretty big drop off between 2 and 3. Alabama has looked great at times this year, but also very un-Alabama like other times this season. Their loss came at home against Mississippi. They didn’t look like a playoff team this week at home either, when they needed a last minute touchdown to beat a pretty average Tennessee team. The good thing for Alabama is that they still have plenty of opportunity to prove themselves with upcoming games vs LSU and at Mississippi State in back to back weeks. If they take care of those 2 and the final 2 regular season games, they will also get a highly ranked Florida team in the SEC Championship Game.
3) Florida got on the map after pasting Ole Miss 38-10, just 2 weeks after Mississippi beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The Gators then pounded the 2-time defending SEC East Champion Missouri, 21-3 on the road. Florida also had a solid showing, losing to LSU by 1 touchdown, while playing with their back-up QB. Florida should only improve as new QB Treon Harris gets more reps and more comfortable in the offense. Playing in the SEC East, they have a pretty easy road to the SEC Championship game, they do however still have their end of the season rivalry game with Florida State, another 1-loss team.
4) Notre Dame as mentioned above, has put themselves in a good position to claim a playoff spot with just 1-loss. They do still have 3 road challenges ahead, when they take on undefeated Temple this week, 1-loss Pitt next week and another 1-loss Stanford team the final week of the season.
5) Florida State is ranked in this position right now, but they still have 2 games on the road against Clemson and Florida, which could certainly knock them from playoff contention. The Seminoles started the season slow, but had been playing better before tripping up last week on the road to Georgia Tech.
6) Oklahoma is still in contention to win the Big XII, but their lone loss was a bad one, losing to Texas while the Longhorns were in the midst of playing their worst football of the year. The Sooners still have a chance to prove they belong, as they have 3 games left against undefeated teams (TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma St).
7) Utah is a team that I’m still not completely sold on. Their best wins are against overrated Oregon and Cal teams as well as beating Michigan in Week 1. That was not the same Michigan team that has taken the field recently in Ann Arbor. With a pretty weak remaining schedule, UCLA looks like they would be the only team that could challenge the Utes. Utah would still have a PAC-12 Championship game with Stanford if they survive the final 5 games on their schedule.
8-10) Duke/UNC/Pitt I don’t think that any of these teams are really a threat to make a run to an 11-1 finish of the regular season. All 3 are still undefeated in the ACC Coastal division, but I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility that the division winner still loses 1 more game. These 3 teams all still play each other, so things should sort themselves out, but I wouldn’t consider any a real threat to be sitting with 1 loss at the end of the season, putting themselves in playoff talk.
THIS WEEKS TOP GAMES:
A slow week, only 1 game on the schedule is between 2 ranked teams.
North Carolina @ Pitt – Thursday 7:00pm, ESPN
Oregon @ Arizona State – Thursday 10:30pm, ESPN
USC @ Cal – Saturday 3:00pm, FOX
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech – Saturday 3:30pm, ESPN
Notre Dame @ Temple – Saturday 8:00pm, ABC
Stanford @ Washington State – Saturday 10:30pm, ESPN
A slow week, only 1 game on the schedule is between 2 ranked teams.
North Carolina @ Pitt – Thursday 7:00pm, ESPN
Oregon @ Arizona State – Thursday 10:30pm, ESPN
USC @ Cal – Saturday 3:00pm, FOX
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech – Saturday 3:30pm, ESPN
Notre Dame @ Temple – Saturday 8:00pm, ABC
Stanford @ Washington State – Saturday 10:30pm, ESPN
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