The Sports Fix: College Football, Part 1 of 2

PART 1: Re-Alignment

With all the recent controversy regarding the Final 4 from the College Football Playoff Committee, it got me thinking that there has to be a better way to have college football to crown a national champion.  I don’t have a problem with a selection committee making the tough decisions on how to select 4 teams out of 128 division 1 teams.  I don’t have a problem only 4 teams being selected for the playoff, when there are 5 Power Conferences in FBS.  (And for the record, I didn’t have a problem with the 4 teams the committee selected this year for the playoff.)  Where I do have a problem, is the idea that winning your conference championship should matter.

The College Football Selection Committee has “Championships Won” listed as one of their main criteria when selecting teams for the playoff.  By doing this they are completely ignoring, the fact that conference championships are nothing more than a title.  It no longer actually tells who the best team in that conference actually is.  Why you ask?  The conferences are TOO BIG!

The biggest argument when the playoff was announced on Sunday was that Penn State was left out despite winning the toughest conference in football this season.  (I am still not sold on the Big Ten being the best conference, we will learn a lot more from the bowl games and the playoff.) The argument was that either Washington or Ohio State should have been bumped for Penn State.  Ohio State became the 1^st non-conference champion to make the playoff in its 3-year history.

Again, let me say…  The conferences are TOO BIG!!!  There is no denying that Penn State won the Big Ten East division over Ohio State and Michigan, the issue that I have with that title is that Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan didn’t all play the same conference schedule.  Declaring one team a champion, when not all teams are playing on an even playing field makes no sense.  In the Big Ten each team plays the 6 teams in their division and 3 crossover games.  This year Ohio State played at Wisconsin and home against Nebraska and Northwestern, those teams finished 1^st, 2^nd and 5^th in the B1G West.  Michigan also played Wisconsin at home as well as at Iowa and a home game vs Illinois, those teams finished 1^st, 3^rd and 6^th in the B1G West.  Penn State on the other hand played home against Iowa and Minnesota and on the road against Purdue, those teams finished 3^rd, 4^th and 7^th in the Big Ten.  So Ohio State went on the road to Madison and beat Wisconsin, the same team that Penn State needed the largest comeback for in conference championship game history, to beat on a neutral field, while Penn State got the 3^rd and 4^th place teams (Iowa/Minn) at home at their lone road crossover game was Purdue, arguably one of the worst 5 Major Conference teams in the nation.  That is a good way to decide a “Champion”?

This year there was 4 conference championship games from the Power 5 Conferences and you could make the argument that none of the four featured the 2 best teams from their conference.

In the ACC, Clemson faced Virginia Tech. Clemson was ranked #3 in the nation and was an obvious choice to be in the game, but VT was 9-3 and ranked 23^rd.  Meanwhile, Florida State and Louisville, ranked 12^th and 13^th respectively, were left at home watching. Louisville even finished with a better ACC record that VT while playing in the more difficult division.

 

In the Big Ten, we discussed that Penn State won, due to uneven scheduling and beating Ohio State head-to-head, but wouldn’t you don’t you think that Ohio State, who beat Wisconsin on the Badgers home field would be a better match-up if we are trying to find out who the best team is?  After all, the Buckeyes lost to Penn State in State College, this game would have been on a neutral field.

The PAC 12 Championship game featured their two highest ranked teams in Washington (4) and Colorado (8) while USC (11) sat at home.  Seems fine, but USC also was responsible for the only losses that either of those teams had in conference play, beating both of them.

And finally, the SEC championship game featured Alabama, obviously and an 8-3 Florida team that lost the week before by 18 points.  Florida, like Penn State made their conference championship game with the help of a weak crossover schedule in the SEC.  The Gators lost to Tennessee, the team that finished 2^nd in the SEC East, but still won the division because while Tennessee played #8 Texas A&M and #1 Alabama in back-to-back weeks as their crossover games, Florida played Arkansas and LSU.  Alabama beat Florida by 38 in the conference championship game and it could have been much worse.

As a matter of fact, the only conference that actually had their 2 best teams playing against each other was the Big XII, and that wasn’t an official championship game, although because how the season played out, the winner of that game was the Big XII Champion.  Interestingly, the Big XII is the only Power 5 Conference without a championship game because their conference is, get this, too SMALL!

My resolution, as I’m sure you could guess, is contracting the conferences.  Currently we have 10 conferences with 128 teams in FBS. Right now, half of those teams are in the Power 5 Conferences, ACC (14), Big Ten (14), Big XII (10), PAC 12 (12), SEC (14).  With 60 teams residing in the Group of 5 conferences, while the remaining 4 teams sit as current independents.

If we are shrinking the conferences it also allows us to re-align to bring back geographical rivals and limit travel between schools.  In my format, we have 10-team conferences.  With 130 schools, adding UAB who will start their football program back up in 2017 and Coastal Carolina, who is moving from FCS to FBS status in 2017, that gives us a perfect number.  130 teams in 13 conferences.  80 Power Conference Schools (up from 64) and 50 (Minor Conference Schools).   All teams will be affiliated with a conference, sorry Notre Dame.

While shrinking the conferences (and growing some), we obviously have to re-align.  I chose to do the conferences primarily based on geography, but keeping in mind the historical value of both the conferences as well as the many rivalries that schools have developed over the years.  It is not perfect, as you can’t please everybody, but here is what I came up with.

80 POWER CONFERENCE SCHOOLS

8 10-TEAM CONFERENCES

ACC

1. Clemson Tigers
2. Duke Blue Devils
3. Florida State Seminoles
4. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
5. Miami Hurricanes
6. North Carolina Tar Heels
7. North Carolina State Wolfpack
8. Virginia Cavaliers
9. Virginia Tech Hokies
10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

CONCEPT:
Original ACC, with the addition of Miami and Virginia Tech and without Maryland.  Every team has at least one regional rival.

FURTHEST TRAVEL:
Miami to Virginia, 858 miles

BIG EAST

1. Boston College Eagles
2. Connecticut Huskies
3. Maryland Terrapins
4. Navy Midshipmen
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6. Penn State Nittany Lions
7. Pitt Panthers
8. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
9. Syracuse Orange
10. West Virginia Mountaineers

CONCEPT:
Mid-Atlantic teams and old rivals. Notre Dame added due to their history with BC, Navy, Pitt, Penn State & Syracuse.

FURTHEST TRAVEL:
Boston College to Notre Dame, 776 miles

BIG TEN

1. Indiana Hoosiers
2. Illinois Fighting Illini
3. Iowa Hawkeyes
4. Michigan Wolverines
5. Michigan State Spartans
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers
7. Northwestern Wildcats
8. Ohio State Buckeyes
9. Purdue Boilermakers
10. Wisconsin Badgers

CONCEPT:
Plain and simple, the original Big Ten.

FURTHEST TRAVEL:
Ohio State to Wisconsin, 622 miles

CENTRAL

1. Alabama Birmingham Blazers
2. Central Florida Knights
3. Cincinnati Bearcats
4. East Carolina Pirates
5. Louisville Cardinals
6. Marshall Thundering Herd
7. Memphis Tigers
8. South Florida Bulls
9. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
10. Vanderbilt Commodores

CONCEPT:
All the leftovers of the good but not great programs East of the Mississippi.

FURTHEST TRAVEL:
Cincinnati to South Florida, 780 miles

MIDWEST

1. Boise State Broncos
2. BYU Cougars
3. Colorado Buffaloes
4. Colorado State Rams
5. Iowa State Cyclones
6. Kansas Jayhawks
7. Kansas State Wildcats
8. Missouri Tigers
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers
10. Utah Utes

CONCEPT:
The remaining misfits left out of the other Power conferences. All west of the Mississippi.

FURTHEST TRAVEL:
Boise State to Missouri, 1278 miles

PAC-10

1. Arizona Wildcats
2. Arizona State Sun Devils
3. California Golden Bears
4. Oregon Ducks
5. Oregon State Beavers
6. Stanford Cardinal
7. UCLA Bruins
8. USC Trojans
9. Washington Huskies
10. Washington State Cougars

CONCEPT:
The original PAC-10. It was a perfect set-up before with natural rivalries, now it is back to its original state.

FURTHEST TRAVEL:
Arizona to Washington, 1220 miles

SEC

1. Alabama Crimson Tide
2. Auburn Tigers
3. Florida Gators
4. Georgia Bulldogs
5. Kentucky Wildcats
6. LSU Tigers
7. Mississippi Rebels
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs
9. South Carolina Gamecocks
10. Tennessee Volunteers

CONCEPT:
The SEC with a more regional approach, by getting rid of teams on the outskirts like Vanderbilt and Arkansas.

FURTHEST TRAVEL:
Kentucky to LSU, 651 miles

SOUTH WEST

1. Arkansas Razorbacks
2. Baylor Bears
3. Houston Cougars
4. Oklahoma Sooners
5. Oklahoma State Cowboys
6. SMU Mustangs
7. TCU Horned Frogs
8. Texas Longhorns
9. Texas A&M Aggies
10. Texas Tech Red Raiders

CONCEPT:
A Mix of the old SWC and the Big 8, basically taking Texas and Oklahoma with the addition of Arkansas, which borders both states, and has had rivalries with these schools in the past.

FURTHEST TRAVEL:
Houston to Oklahoma State, 451 miles

50 MINOR CONFERENCE SCHOOLS

5 10-TEAM CONFERENCES

BIG SOUTH

1. Arkansas State Red Wolves
2. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
3. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns
4. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
5. North Texas Mean Green
6. Rice Owls
7. Texas State Bobcats
8. Tulane Green Wave
9. UTEP Miners
10. UTSA Roadrunners

CONCEPT:
Pretty much the same footprint as the SOUTH WEST CONFERENCE, but with the smaller programs.

FURTHEST TRAVEL:
Tulane to UTEP, 977 miles

COASTAL

1. Appalachian State Mountaineers
2. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
3. Charlotte 49ers
4. Florida Atlantic Owls
5. Florida International Panthers
6. Georgia Southern Eagles
7. Georgia State Panthers
8. Old Dominion Monarchs
9. South Alabama Jaguars
10. Troy Trojans

CONCEPT:
From Virginia all the way to Florida, with a touch of Alabama. Lots of natural rivalries based on locale.

FURTHEST TRAVEL:
Old Dominion to South Alabama, 800 miles

GREAT LAKES

1. Akron Zips
2. Army Black Knights
3. Bowling Green Falcons
4. Buffalo Bulls
5. Kent State Golden Flashes
6. Massachusetts Minutemen
7. Miami (OH) Red Hawks
8. Ohio Bobcats
9. Temple Owls
10. Toledo Rockets

CONCEPT:
The remaining Northeast schools from New England, hugging the Great Lakes to Ohio.

FURTHEST TRAVEL:
Miami (OH) to UMASS, 667 miles

MID AMERICAN

1. Air Force Falcons
2. Ball State Cardinals
3. Central Michigan Chippewas
4. Eastern Michigan Eagles
5. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
6. Northern Illinois Huskies
7. Tulsa Golden Tornadoes
8. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
9. Western Michigan Broncos
10. Wyoming Cowboys

CONCEPT:
The Western teams from the current MAC, mixed with some other Midwest schools that fit demographically.

FURTHEST TRAVEL:
Eastern Michigan to Wyoming, 1131 miles

WESTERN

1. Fresno State Bulldogs
2. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
3. Idaho Vandals
4. Nevada Wolf Pack
5. New Mexico Lobos
6. New Mexico State Aggies
7. San Diego State Aztecs
8. San Jose State Spartans
9. UNLV Rebels
10. Utah State Aggies

CONCEPT:
The smaller western programs. Lots of teams from the current MWC.

FURTHEST TRAVEL:
Idaho to New Mexico State, 1137 miles

Obviously, this re-alignment would not please everybody, but with my mandated scheduling rules, it allows and even encourages teams to schedule game against former conference foes that may no longer be.  Here is how scheduling would work.

SCHEDULING:
Each school would play 12 regular season games and have 1 BYE week.

Each school would play their entire conference (9 games).

Each school would play 3 non-conference games.
* Power Conference schools cannot play any FCS teams as part of their non-conference schedule.
* All Power Conference teams must schedule at least 1 games against another Power Conference opponent.
* Scheduling FCS schools for Minor Conferences schools is not mandatory, but permitted.
* Limit of 1 FCS school per season for Minor Conference schools.
* Minor Conference schools must schedule at least 1 game against a Power Conference opponent if they want to be eligible for post season play.

PRESEASON:
Power Conference schools CAN play FCS teams as a preseason game.  These games are optional and must be played the Saturday before the season starts.  These games count as preseason camp, so teams do not get extra time in camp if they play a preseason game.  Ticket prices from these games are dictated by the home teams, however the FCS school gets an even 50/50 split of ALL revenue intake from that game.

PLAYOFF:
12-team playoff.
8 Power Conference champions get automatic bids, 4 at-large bids (Top ranked Minor Conference winner is guaranteed a playoff spot.)
Selection committee seeds the playoff brackets and selects the remaining 3 at-large teams.
Top 4 teams get BYES

SCHEDULE LAYOUT: (1^st Saturday of the season would always be over Labor Day weekend)
13 Week regular season, no conference championship games.
WEEK 14 – Playoffs/Bowl Selection Show + Army vs Navy (No other games)
WEEK 15 – OPENING ROUND PLAYOFF GAMES (4 games) (At HOME of better seeded team)
WEEK 16 – Lower Tier Bowls + 2^nd ROUND PLAYOFF GAMES (4 games) (4 regional sites)
WEEK 17 – Mid Tier Bowls + SEMIFINALS (2 games)
WEEK 18 – Top Tier Bowls
WEEK 19 – NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

With this schedule, the season would still end on the exact same date that it is currently scheduled to end on with the 4-Team Playoff.

Part 2 of my College Football Fix: The Bowl System will be coming later this week.

Week 8 Review

We are 8 into the college football season and I look back and wonder, have we learned anything yet about this season?

Think about it, all the questions that fans ask themselves as the season goes on are still unanswered.  So in this weeks’ review I am going to do my best to answer them or at least try to answer them.

Before we get started on that though, there are 2 other matters that we DO KNOW that need to be discussed.  First, did you see the end of that Florida State – Georgia Tech game?! If not, check it out!

2 weeks in a row now, a last second special teams play goes completely haywire and results in a possible CFB Playoff team losing.  Last week Michigan, this week Florida State.

And how can we not mention the mess at Miami?  Lose by 58, the worst loss in school history.  Fire Al Golden (which we all knew was coming).  Now where does Miami go?  As you know I love coaching searches and the domino effect it has nationwide, I just didn’t think we would have so many openings in the middle of the season.  Normally in college football coaches almost ALWAYS last the season, simply because the number restriction put on by the NCAA for coaches allowed per team.  It isn’t very easy to replace a head coach when every coach is stretched thin already with their prior duties.  We knew it was bad for Golden at Miami, but this bad?

Okay, on to the important questions of the season, not who is going to replace Golden, that is for another time (I plan on writing a coaching rant soon).

The top offense in the country, Baylor, is now going to be without their starting quarterback Seth Russell for an extended period of time, can they still win without him?  Can they make it to the CFB Playoff without him?
First instinct is to say, “No way, Baylor is done!” But then you take a closer look and see that Russell’s backup is not terrible.  I realize that isn’t a ringing endorsement, but the thought behind that is, “How good do you really need to be in that system at Baylor?”  Each of the last 6 years Baylor has averaged over 40 points a game and that is with 4 different quarterbacks.  So is it the player or the system, I’m leaning towards system.  That being said, the backup in question, Jarrett Stidham, is a true freshman that was the 6^th ranked dual threat QB in the country last year and had offers from pretty much every school in the country.  He chose to play at Baylor and for Art Briles.  In limited time this year Stidham has gone 24-28 (85.7%!!!!!) for 331 yards, 6 touchdowns and no interceptions.  He has also run for 26 yards and a touchdown.  There will obviously be a drop off from Russell, a guy who has played in the system for 3 years and has over 300 more pass attempts then Stidham, a guy who was playing high school ball at this point last year.  Luckily for Stidham this injury came at the best possible time.  Baylor is off this week before going on the road to Kansas State Thursday November 5^th.  Kansas State has yet to win a Big XII game this season.  He will get extra time and extra reps before he plays in that K-State game, then he will get a long week with extra reps before his 1^st test, Oklahoma, which is still 3 weeks away.  Is it an ideal situation for Baylor, no, but can they still win?  Yes, I think they can.

Is Washington State under Mike Leech actually good?
Simple answer, YES!  Mike Leach has been off the radar since being fired at Texas Tech in 2009.  While at TTU, he never had a losing record and went 84-43 in 10 seasons.  In his first 3 seasons at Washington State, he was 12-25 and was surely on the hot seat entering his 4^th season at the school.  After losing the season opener to FCS Portland State, that seat only got hotter.  Since that game the Cougars have won 5 of 6 including road wins at Oregon and Arizona.  WSU is now 5-2 overall, and 3-1 in PAC-12 play entering this week’s game with Stanford who is the only team ahead of them in the PAC-12 North.  As long as QB Luke Falk and WR Gabe Marks stay healthy, this could be a special year in Pullman.  2 more wins this season and it would give them the most wins since 2003.

Has there been any conference that has proven they deserve at least one spot in the CFB Playoff, regardless of who their eventual champions in?
Of course we could go crazy here and use ridiculous examples of why no conference is safe, but that would just be a waste of time.  Plus, even without going overboard it isn’t a sure thing that any conference is safe.  We are going to just focus on the teams that remain undefeated or have just 1 loss, because nobody with 2 losses is going to make the playoff.  Let’s go conference by conference.
ACC: (Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina & Pitt)
Clemson is the front-runner in the ACC and if they stay undefeated it will be very difficult to keep them out of the playoff.  However, if they do stumble along the way, I find it hard to believe that there would still be a spot for an ACC team.  Florida St losing to Georgia Tech last week all but eliminates them from contention.  They do still have 2 big road games to help their cause, playing Clemson and Florida.  One key for both Florida State and Clemson is that whoever wins the ACC Coastal division be 11-1 or 10-2 going into the conference championship game.  Duke, North Carolina and Pitt are all still undefeated in the ACC from the Coastal division, but they also all still play each other, starting this week when UNC travels to Pittsburgh.  Pitt has a slight advantage in the ACC race, as they are 4-0 in conference play, where both Duke and North Carolina are 3-0.  Pitt’s lone loss is to an undefeated Iowa team, which certainly helps the Panthers.  They also have a chance to make a statement with 1 last non-conference game against Notre Dame next week.  Pitt gets North Carolina at home and travels to Duke in November.  North Carolina, who’s lost to South Carolina the 1^st week of the season looks a lot worse now than it did 6 weeks ago.  UNC’s fate will be determined in their next 2 games as they host Duke next week after their Thursday night game with Pitt this week.  Duke, also with just 1 loss, lost to Northwestern, which like UNC looked better a few weeks ago than it does now.  The best case for the ACC is to get Pitt into the championship game at 11-1, with that lone loss being to an undefeated Big Ten team.  The ACC then needs the winner of the FSU-Clemson game to run the table and win the ACC Championship game.  Anything less probably leaves the ACC out of the playoff picture.

Big XII: (Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU)
The nice thing about the Big XII is that they have a balanced schedule where all 10 teams play each other.  The downfall is that they do not have a championship game and that leaves the potential for a tie atop the conference like last year, when Baylor and TCU were both left out of the playoff after finishing tied for 1^st place.  The interesting thing to consider in this instance is that the conference also set up the scheduling that none of these 4 teams have played each other yet.  They won’t play this week either.  The Last Man Standing Contest in the Big XII begins November 7^th.  Oklahoma is the 1 team in this group that already has a loss, and it was an ugly one, losing to rival Texas.  The Big XII could be on the outside looking in once again this year when the playoff teams are announced if Oklahoma runs the table, giving every team at least 1 loss.  A tie atop the standings could also prove to be damaging to the Big XII.  The Big XII will be rooting for either Baylor, TCU or Oklahoma State to make a clean sweep over the next month, giving them a clear cut candidate for the playoff.

Big Ten:  (Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State)
The Big Ten, like the Big XII will have a chance to sort itself out on the field.  Michigan State and Ohio State still are yet to play, and the winner of that (and the EAST) will most likely square off against Iowa.  The Hawkeyes would have to lose 2 of their last 5 games and have Wisconsin win out for them not to make the Big Ten Championship.  Now the biggest question is does an undefeated Iowa team get into the playoff?  Iowa’s best non-conference win is Pitt.  Their best win of the season will be in the Big Ten Championship if they end up undefeated.  I don’t know if that is good enough.  If either Ohio State or Michigan finish the season unbeaten, they will certainly get into the playoff.  One interesting scenario is what if Michigan beats Ohio State? If that happens, there is a chance that there is a 3-way tie for the Big Ten East between Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State.  A Michigan-Iowa Big Ten Championship Game would not be good for the Big Ten.  It would also open up the possibility of a 1-loss Ohio State or Michigan State team getting into the playoff without even playing for the conference championship.

PAC-12: (Stanford, Utah)
This is about as simple as it gets, Utah is in the PAC-12 South and Stanford is in the PAC-12 North, those are the only 2 teams with a chance to play in the playoff from this conference.  The winner of the championship game gets in, the loser is out.  That is, if both of these are the 2 teams that are representing their divisions in that championship game.  Utah plays in the tougher division, but they have already played USC and Arizona State.  Their biggest remaining game is UCLA, which could steal that bid to the conference championship game with a win.  The PAC-12 South is another division (like the Big Ten East) that could have a sloppy tiebreaker in play.  Utah is currently in 1^st place, but UCLA, USC and Arizona State are all just 1 game back.  In the North, Stanford has a 1 ½ game lead over 2^nd place Washington State and could all but wrap up the division with a win in Pullman this week.  The downfall for Stanford however could be their regular season finale, a non-conference game against Notre Dame.

SEC: (Alabama, Florida, LSU)
If one of these 3 teams win the SEC, they will be in the CFB Playoff.  Florida has the easiest path, playing in the SEC East.  Florida will still have to beat Florida State to close out their regular season, then whoever comes out of the SEC West.  Both LSU and Alabama still play each other (November 7^th) as well as others from the SEC West.  If any of these 3 schools win out, they will be in the CFB Playoff. 

Has there been any conference that has proven they should be in consideration for 2 of the 4 CFB Playoff spots?
This is something a lot of people have talked about, especially about the SEC, but honestly I think it will take a lot to convince anyone that one conference deserves half of the bids to the playoff.  The playoff is already set up that 1 conference champion is left out, if 2 teams from one conference get in, that means 2 champions will be left out, while 1 team that didn’t win their conference makes it.  I don’t think this is likely to happen this year, but let’s take a look at any of the possibilities.
ACC:
The ACC is widely considered the weakest conference of the Power 5, fair or not, and many think that even an undefeated Clemson would be the one left out if all the other conferences have high ranking teams.  That being said, I think it is safe to say that the ACC will not have 2 entrants into the playoff this season.  The best the ACC could do this year would be to have 2 1-loss teams.  It would take convincing for the selection committee to put in 1 team from the ACC with 1 loss, let alone 2.

Big XII:
The Big XII has a chance for 2 playoff spots after getting shut out last year, but it will take some crazy happenings for it to fall in place.  The 2 likely candidates are Baylor and TCU.  Both schools are undefeated and have been near the top of the rankings all season.  These 2 play the 2^nd to last week of the season AT TCU.  The only way I see both teams making the playoff is if they play each other in a closely contended game and the home team (TCU) wins.  Then again, that exact thing happened last year, with Baylor winning a 61-58 showdown at home last year and both teams were still shutout.  However, that is when they both had 1 loss.  Maybe an undefeated TCU and a 1-loss Baylor team could make it this year, if everything else falls right for them.

Big Ten:
The Big Ten has a few different ways that I could see them landing 2 teams in the playoff (even though I think the conference as a whole is very overrated).  The first way is if an undefeated Iowa wins the Big Ten Championship game over an undefeated Ohio State or Michigan State.  In that instance, I believe that Iowa gets in by default, but I think the loser of that game also has a strong case to make the playoff if there are no other undefeated conference champions to pick from.

PAC-12:
The PAC-12 is much like the ACC where they may not even get 1 team in the playoff let alone holding out hope for 2.  The PAC-12 may even have a tougher hill to climb than the ACC however.  Where the ACC has the potential of 2 1-loss teams, there is no chance of that in the PAC-12.  With no undefeated teams remaining and just Utah and Stanford with 1-loss, the best the conference could do is 1 remaining 1-loss team after the conference championship game.

SEC:
The SEC has 3 teams that could end the regular season with 1-loss, 2 of them which would end up in the SEC Championship.  I think there is a distinct possibility that the winner of the SEC Championship and the 2^nd place SEC West team or, if Florida wins the SEC Championship over an undefeated LSU team, both of those teams make the playoff.  Obviously this would all depend on how the other conferences finish, but I feel like this is the most likely situation for 1 conference to claim to playoff spots.

What 1-loss teams are in the best position to make a serious claim at a playoff bid?
Notre Dame as an independent has a lot working against it when it comes to the playoff selection committee, but they have put themselves into a good position this season.  Their only loss is to an undefeated Clemson team on the road.  They have also played just enough other Power 5 teams to make themselves warrant their high ranking.  At the beginning of the season their schedule looked brutal, but teams like Georgia Tech and Texas have not lived up to their preseason expectations, allowing the Irish to get to this point in their schedule with just 1 loss.  Notre Dame still has 3 games remaining over ranked teams, all on the road.  If ND can run the table they would have to be considered one of the top 1-loss teams in the country.  There are 10 teams remaining from Power 5 conferences (plus Notre Dame) that have just 1 loss.  Let’s see how they would rank with the rest of the 1-loss teams in the country at this point.

1) Stanford would be my top 1-loss team right now.  They are playing as good as anyone in the country and their only loss came in Week 1, when ESPN forced them to travel east and still play a noon game (I’ve discussed this in the past, I’m not a fan of this).  Stanford has already beaten USC on the road and have a 21-point win over UCLA under their belt.  They close the season with home games against Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame.  The last game will be a make shift elimination game for playoff contention if both enter that game still with just 1 loss.

2) Alabama is my number 2 team and I think there is a pretty big drop off between 2 and 3.  Alabama has looked great at times this year, but also very un-Alabama like other times this season.  Their loss came at home against Mississippi.  They didn’t look like a playoff team this week at home either, when they needed a last minute touchdown to beat a pretty average Tennessee team.  The good thing for Alabama is that they still have plenty of opportunity to prove themselves with upcoming games vs LSU and at Mississippi State in back to back weeks.  If they take care of those 2 and the final 2 regular season games, they will also get a highly ranked Florida team in the SEC Championship Game.

3) Florida got on the map after pasting Ole Miss 38-10, just 2 weeks after Mississippi beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa.  The Gators then pounded the 2-time defending SEC East Champion Missouri, 21-3 on the road.  Florida also had a solid showing, losing to LSU by 1 touchdown, while playing with their back-up QB.  Florida should only improve as new QB Treon Harris gets more reps and more comfortable in the offense.  Playing in the SEC East, they have a pretty easy road to the SEC Championship game, they do however still have their end of the season rivalry game with Florida State, another 1-loss team.

4) Notre Dame as mentioned above, has put themselves in a good position to claim a playoff spot with just 1-loss.  They do still have 3 road challenges ahead, when they take on undefeated Temple this week, 1-loss Pitt next week and another 1-loss Stanford team the final week of the season.

5) Florida State is ranked in this position right now, but they still have 2 games on the road against Clemson and Florida, which could certainly knock them from playoff contention.  The Seminoles started the season slow, but had been playing better before tripping up last week on the road to Georgia Tech.

6) Oklahoma is still in contention to win the Big XII, but their lone loss was a bad one, losing to Texas while the Longhorns were in the midst of playing their worst football of the year.  The Sooners still have a chance to prove they belong, as they have 3 games left against undefeated teams (TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma St).

7) Utah is a team that I’m still not completely sold on.  Their best wins are against overrated Oregon and Cal teams as well as beating Michigan in Week 1.  That was not the same Michigan team that has taken the field recently in Ann Arbor.  With a pretty weak remaining schedule, UCLA looks like they would be the only team that could challenge the Utes.  Utah would still have a PAC-12 Championship game with Stanford if they survive the final 5 games on their schedule.

8-10) Duke/UNC/Pitt I don’t think that any of these teams are really a threat to make a run to an 11-1 finish of the regular season.  All 3 are still undefeated in the ACC Coastal division, but I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility that the division winner still loses 1 more game.  These 3 teams all still play each other, so things should sort themselves out, but I wouldn’t consider any a real threat to be sitting with 1 loss at the end of the season, putting themselves in playoff talk.

THIS WEEKS TOP GAMES:
A slow week, only 1 game on the schedule is between 2 ranked teams.

North Carolina @ Pitt – Thursday 7:00pm, ESPN
Oregon @ Arizona State – Thursday 10:30pm, ESPN
USC @ Cal – Saturday 3:00pm, FOX
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech – Saturday 3:30pm, ESPN
Notre Dame @ Temple – Saturday 8:00pm, ABC
Stanford @ Washington State – Saturday 10:30pm, ESPN

Week 5 Review

5 weeks into the college football season and we have complete chaos and it is FANTASTIC.

Let’s start with the Top 10 last week as 4 teams lost by a total of 73 points, and one of those losses was by just 2 points by #6 Notre Dame.  That means the other 3 lost by a combined 71.  #3 Mississippi and #8 Georgia each lost conference games by 28 points (38-10 finals in both games).  # 7 UCLA, coming off of a 26-point win on the road against a ranked Arizona team, lost by 15 at home against a then 2-2 Arizona State team.  Throw that on top of #1 Ohio State struggling against Indiana, who played without their starting QB and RB.  We also had #2 Michigan State nearly blowing a 21-point lead to hang on to beat lowly Purdue 24-21.  Basically what I am saying is that even the best teams in the country don’t look dominant.

Before we get into conference breakdowns after 5 weeks of the season, how about this little bit of food for thought, for the 1^st time since October 10, 2010 no SEC team in ranked in the Top 5 in AP Top 25.  That is 80 straight weeks.

On to my thoughts about each conference through 5 weeks.

ACC:
- Is anybody in the ACC good enough to make it to the 4-Team CFB Playoff from the ACC?  The conference only has 2 undefeated teams remaining (Clemson and FSU) and they have to play each other in 5 weeks.  And strength of schedule isn’t going to help anyone in this conference as 5 of the 14 teams already have 3 losses this year.

- As much as I enjoyed watching the Clemson/Notre Dame game on Saturday, I came away not having any idea how good Clemson really is.  Sure they beat a Top 6 Notre Dame team, but they barely beat ND.  They looked really good for 2 ½ quarters, looked decent for 1 quarter and looked flat out bad for the final 7 minutes or so.  The ACC Atlantic is pretty down, so the Tigers don’t have many chances to prove to their voters how good they really are.

- After watching Florida State sneak by teams all last season, but still make it into the playoffs because they were the undefeated defending champion, may have tainted me a bit about Jimbo Fisher and his squad.  I immediately have only seen them play twice this year, but they haven’t been very impressive if you ask me.  Yes they are undefeated, but beating up on Texas St, then struggling with South Florida, BC and Wake isn’t blowing the doors off of anyone.  I just don’t trust them to be the team we are once again being led to believe they are.  I don’t think it would really surprise anyone if they lost any of their next 3 games (vs MIA, vs LOU, @ GT) and then they still have Clemson and Florida waiting on their schedule.

- The Coastal Division is once again completely up for grabs.  The overwhelming preseason favorite and defending division champ, Georgia Tech, has started 0-2 in conference play.  The team most “experts” picked to finish 2^nd place in the division, Virginia Tech, is 0-1 and just had their worst offensive outing in 29 years.  The crazy thing is that you can’t count either of those teams out yet.  Each of the last 3 years the winner of the Coastal Division has had AT LEAST 2 losses in the conference.  Right now, both Duke and North Carolina seem to be the front-runners.  Both teams have already beat Georgia Tech, and Duke also has a win Boston College making them 2-0 just 5 weeks in.  The Blue Devils do play 3 of their next 4 and 5 of their final 7 on the road however, including a trip to Chapel Hill to take on UNC in 5 weeks.  North Carolina has 2 “should-be” wins up next and the close with a tough 5 game stretch, including 3 of those 5 on the road.  As I mentioned, this division is anyone’s for the taking.

BIG XII:
- The Top 4 teams in the Big XII (TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma & Oklahoma State) have clearly separated themselves as best in the conference.  All 4 are still undefeated, but none of the 4 have had what anyone would call a signature win to this point.  Oklahoma State is probably #4 of those 4 teams, but their schedule gives them the potential to get to 8-0 before having to face any of the other 3 top teams.  TCU also has their schedule back-loaded and doesn’t face 1 of the other top teams until November.  However, they play 2 of the 3 teams on the road.  Baylor, who hasn’t beat anyone yet, plays all the other teams in successive weeks, with the final 2 games against Oklahoma State and TCU on the road inside a 6 day window.  As with the other 3 teams, Oklahoma has their schedule back loaded and won’t face any of them until November 14^th.  It should make for an interesting next month or so as all 4 of these teams should remain undefeated.  The downfall, the Big XII still does not have a conference championship and these 4 teams beating up on each other in the final month of the season could keep all 4 out of the CFB Playoff.

- What is going on at Texas?  Since playing in the National Championship Game to conclude the 2009 season, Texas is just 37-32.  In those 32 losses 21 are by double digits and 16 (half) are by 20+ points.  Texas went to Charlie Strong, a man who made a name for himself by coaching defense, to turn things around last year.  All he has done is go 7-11 while giving up an average of 27.8 in those 18 games.  In just year 2 of his 5 year deal Charlie Strong is on the hottest of hot seats.  Next up for the Longhorns, the 10^th ranked Oklahoma Sooners, who have beaten Texas in 4 of their last 5 meetings in the Red River Rivalry Game.

- Kansas is the worst team of any P5 team in FBS football.  The real question, are they the worst P5 team EVER?  Kansas is 0-4 this season and that includes a lost an FCS team in South Dakota State.  They also have losses to Rutgers and Iowa State, both who only have 1 other win this season and those came against FCS schools too.  Memphis is the other school to beat Kansas this season, 55-23 and that was a down game for the Tigers.  Memphis had 651 yards of offense outgaining Kansas by 292 yards.  The Tigers also had 3 turnovers or that game could have been much worse.  Next up for the Jayhawks is Baylor, who very well could put up 100 if they wanted to on Saturday against Kansas.  The good news for Jayhawk fans… Midnight Madness is Friday.

Big Ten:
- Ohio State this year reminds me a whole lot like Florida State last year.  Florida State was the preseason #1 team as the defending National Champions, with a returning starting QB from that team (OSU has 2).  Sound familiar?  FSU then slept walked through the majority of their regular season schedule, and amazingly did just enough to be selected into the CFB Playoff as the #3 seed.  Ohio State is on that exact path.  Everyone knows that Ohio State has the players and talent to compete and probably beat any team in the country.  It seems like Ohio State knows this too, which is not a good thing.  The good thing for Ohio State is that the Big Ten is not good this year, so they could just coast through conference play.  The bad news is that if someone does upset them, they will be eliminated from playoff contention.  Ohio State should cruise in their next 5 games before playing games against Michigan State and Michigan in back-to-back weeks to close the season.

- Yes, I said Michigan there as I referred to a big game with Ohio State and NOT because it is a rivalry game.  Most people expected Jim Harbaugh to turn things around at Michigan, but I don’t think anyone thought it would be so soon.  Michigan is now 4-1 this year with their only loss coming in their opening game on the road against Utah, which doesn’t exactly look like a bad loss at this point, does it?  During their 4-game win streak the Wolverines have outscored their opponents 122-14, including 2 straight shutouts.  I’m not saying Michigan is back, but they are well on their way.  We will learn a lot more about Big Blue over the next 2 weeks (vs Northwestern, vs Michigan St.).  This Michigan team looks good enough to compete in the vastly overrated Big Ten East, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they beat the Buckeyes at the Big House this year.

- I mentioned that the Big Ten East is overrated, that must mean that the Big Ten West not rated at all.  The West is currently led by Iowa, Northwestern and Illinois; while typical powers like Nebraska and Wisconsin are a combined 5-5 so far this season.  Iowa, Northwestern and Illinois are a combined 14-1 this year, they combined for 18 wins total last season.  Northwestern has a tough test this weekend (@ Michigan), and Iowa has Illinois and Northwestern in back-to-back weeks coming up, but those 2 teams are in good position to really make a run at the West Division title.

- How bad does Maryland need to get before Randy Edsall is fired?  Not to kick a guy when he is down, but Edsall wasn’t even that good before he got to Maryland when he was at UCONN.  In his 12 years at UCONN before leaving for Maryland Edsall was 74-70 and UNDER .500 in conference play (22-26) in a bad Big East.  That somehow got him a promotion to the Maryland job.  Since taking over in College Park he has gone 22-33 (10-23 in ACC/Big Ten) in 4+ seasons.  So far this season the Terps have been blown out in all 3 of their losses, losing by 21 to Bowling Green, 39 to WVU and getting shutout 28-0 by Michigan Saturday.  They get #1 Ohio State this week.  Maryland probably won’t be favored in another game this season until their finale with Rutgers. 

PAC-12:
- Does anybody want to win the PAC-12?  No, seriously.  We are 5 weeks into the season and only 2 teams are undefeated and those 2 teams play each other this week!  Even crazier is that there are just 3 teams still undefeated in conference play.  7 of the 12 teams in the conference have multiple losses already.  At this rate we are going to have two 7-5 teams playing each other for the conference title.  More confusing is the complete inconsistency week in and week out by some of these teams.  UCLA went on a 3 game stretch of coming back from 10 points in the 4^th quarter to beat an average BYU team, to blowing out #16 Arizona on the road, to coming home and getting blown out by an unranked Arizona State team.  That same Arizona State team lost by 28 at home to USC last week before upsetting UCLA.  The whole conference is a mess.

- As I mentioned, the PAC-12 only has 2 undefeated teams left (which will be just 1 after Saturday) and just 3 teams with 1 loss.  If the PAC-12 hopes to get into the CFB Playoff this season they better hope 1 of those 5 teams run the table.  That is possible with the teams we are talking about (Cal, Utah, USC, UCLA, Stanford) when you look at their schedules, but is it likely considering what we have seen so far from this conference?

SEC:
- Florida is 5-0, should we be taking them serious yet?  They finally have an offense, so that is a plus considering the defense has always been there, but they have been putting up numbers against the likes of Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi.  Sure Ole Miss was ranked #3 and just beat Alabama, but they have been doing it with offense, not their D.  We have seen this before from Florida, so I am going to wait before I get on the bandwagon, although I’m willing to acknowledge that this team has the potential to be pretty good.  The good news for the Gators is you only have to be “pretty good” to win the SEC East.  The real test will be in 2 weeks when Florida plays LSU under the lights in Death Valley.

- Speaking of questioning how good teams are, has anybody snuck under the radar more than Texas A&M this season?  A&M is 5-0 and already has 2 wins against SEC West teams.  They also opened the season with a convincing win over then-ranked Arizona State.  Despite all of that they just barely snuck into the Top 10 in the rankings this week.  The Aggies have a week off before they host Alabama, which should be a match-up of Top 10 SEC teams.

- LSU is good, really good, but I’m still having a tough time buying in to any team that has yet to hold a team under 19, a team that has allowed 24 to Syracuse and 22 to Eastern Michigan.  LSU has the Heisman Trophy winner in Leonard Fournette, but they are going to need more on offense as the schedule gets tougher, because as I mentioned, that defense is not a typical LSU defense.

- In case you missed Nick Saban’s media session today, Alabama isn’t out of this thing yet.  Bama had a statement win Saturday when they smacked Georgia 38-10 in Athens and just reminded everyone that they are still the King of the SEC until further notice.  Bama still has games against Texas A&M on the road and at home versus’ LSU, but if they get past those 2, you’ll probably be seeing back in the CFB Playoff.

- I have decided that Chip Kelly has no chance at keeping his job with the Philadelphia Eagles after this season, so the next question is what college team does he end up with?  The list of 5 I came up with was Miami, Maryland, Texas, Tennessee and South Carolina.  Those 5 teams are all probably going to be in the hunt for a coach come December, so now we need to find out who are legitimate candidates.  Miami won’t want to pay what Kelly will demand, so they are out.  Maryland has the money with the backing from Kevin Plank, I just can’t see them going that big after Kelly and I’m not sure Kelly will burn his bridges with Phil Knight at Nike by going to Team Under Armour.  Texas would be by far the most entertaining prospect and something I could see happening if UT doesn’t get Saban this time around.  This leaves 2 SEC schools in Tennessee and South Carolina.  Tennessee may want to hold off on yet another coaching change, they have had 3 since Phil Fulmer left in 2008, but Butch Jones just hasn’t panned out like they had hoped.  They went for the splash hire when Fulmer retired and got burned by Lane Kiffin who left after 1 season to go to USC.  Would they be willing to try it again?  The other candidate is South Carolina who, by my guess, will be forcing long time head coach Steve Spurrier to retire after this season.  USC has always been close in the SEC and has shown that they want to take the big step into being an SEC power, but they have never quite gotten there.  Chip Kelly would change that.  Chip Kelly could make South Carolina an immediate threat in the SEC East, which means contending for SEC Championships on a regular basis.  Texas would be the more entertaining spot for Kelly, but South Carolina is the best fit for both parties.

OTHERS:
- Notre Dame is really good.  I realize they lost on Saturday to Clemson, but they showed me more in that game than in the 4 prior combined.  At the beginning of the season I thought they would be 5-2 at best after they opened with a tough 7 game stretch.  Texas hasn’t lived up to expectations and I guess they could still lose to Navy and or USC, but beating Georgia Tech they way they did and coming back and nearly beating Clemson showed me how good they really are.  Now I wonder where they will go from here.  ND has 7 games remaining and should be the favorite in all but maybe 1.  If this Notre Dame team goes 11-1 is that good enough to get into the CFB Playoff?  Is 10-2 good enough for a BCS bowl?  Personally I don’t think a 1-loss independent team gets into the playoff (another reason ND should join a conference full time), but this team might just be good enough to do so.  Do I think they are one of the top 4 teams in the country? No, but wins against USC and on the road against Stanford, as well as others losing might get them there.

- Watch the Group of 5 to make a run at one of the BCS bowls this season.  Teams like Memphis, Temple and Toledo are all undefeated with good wins.  Boise State has 1 loss, but has been very good other than their stumble to BYU in week 2.

Here are a few games to keep an eye on this Saturday:

Georgia Tech @ Clemson
Navy @ Notre Dame
Northwestern @ Michigan
Florida @ Missouri
Cal @ Utah

I know it’s not much, but hang in there for one more week.  Week 7 is loaded with great games.