BETology 3/1: The Projections

The Rant will be your daily site to find out exactly how your team stacks up against the rest of the conference as we creep closer to the Big East Tournament in New York City, which begins March 12th.

With all the schools in the Big East off Thursday and Friday this week before the final 8 days of the regular season, I decided to play CNN on Election Night and start projecting winners.  I wanted to look at some of the possibilities for each team with their remaining schedule.  Using realtimerpi.com for their projections of each of the remaining games on the Big East schedule, I was able to project what the bracket might look like for the Big East Tournament this year.

STANDINGS:

#Georgetown Hoyas 12-3 (projected record: 14-4)
1 more win for the Hoyas and they will at least clinch a double bye in New York.  If Georgetown wins 2 of their final 3 games they will win the regular season championship in the Big East and enter the tournament as the top seed.
3-2 vs Rutgers  W 71-55
3-6 @ Villanova  L 64-61
3-9 vs Syracuse  W 72-64

#Louisville Cardinal 11-4 (projected record: 13-5)

Louisville will have to win at least 1 of their final 3 games to get one of the 4 double byes, but may have win even more than that. 
3-2 @ Syracuse  L 72-64
3-4 vs Cincinnati  W 78-63
3-9 vs Notre Dame  W 78-64

#Marquette Golden Eagles 11-4 (projected record: 12-6)

Just like Louisville, Marquette will need to win at least 1 of their final 3 games to assure a double bye.  Beating Notre Dame tomorrow would go a long way for the Golden Eagles.
3-2 vs Notre Dame  W 71-64
3-5 @ Rutgers  L 68-67
3-9 @ St. John’s  L 71-65

#Syracuse Orange 10-5 (projected record: 12-6)

Syracuse will almost certainly have to win either the Louisville or the Georgetown game as well as DePaul at home.  Winning all 3 would get Syracuse a double bye, while losing all 3 would have the Orange playing on Wednesday.
3-2 vs Louisville  W 72-64
3-6 vs DePaul  W 85-53
3-9 @ Georgetown  L 72-64  

#Notre Dame Fighting Irish 10-5 (projected record: 11-7)

Notre Dame has not been good on the road and will likely need to win one and maybe both of their two remaining road games as well as the home game with St. John’s to secure a double bye.
3-2 @ Marquette  L 71-64
3-5 vs St. John’s  W 73-63
3-9 @ Louisville  L 78-64

#Pittsburgh Panthers 10-6 (projected record: 12-6)

Pitt will have to hope that if they take care of business, the teams above them will beat each other up enough for Pitt to leap them in the standings.
3-3 vs Villanova  W 72-56
3-9 @ DePaul  W 69-58

UCONN Huskies 9-6 (projected record: 11-7)

UCONN, although ineligible for post season play this season, can continue to wreak havoc for their opponents while helping the other teams in the conference that are fitting for seeding in the conference tournament.
3-2 @ Cincinnati  L 67-59
3-6 @ South Florida  W 73-72
3-9 vs Providence  W 76-64

#Villanova Wildcats 9-7 (projected record: 10-8)

Mathematically Villanova can still claim a double bye, but they need a ton of help for that to happen.  Villanova is now working on their NCAA Tournament resume.
3-3 @ Pitt  L 72-56
3-6 vs Georgetown  W 64-61

#St. John’s Red Storm 8-7 (projected record: 9-9)

Much like Villanova, St. John’s does still have an extremely slim chance of claiming one of the top 4 seeds in New York and playing both Notre Dame and Marquette helps.  The Johnnies need to win out and have Syracuse, Pitt and Marquette or Notre Dame lose all of their remaining games to make that happen.  St. John’s will need to probably need to win 2 of their final 3 games as well as winning 1 game in New York to get into the NCAA Tournament.  That should be the goal of Steve Lavin and Co at this point.
3-2 @ Providence  L 74-64
3-5 @ Notre Dame  L 73-63
3-9 vs Marquette  W 71-65

#Providence Friars 7-8 (projected record: 9-9)

Providence has clinched a spot playing Wednesday in New York, now they are fighting for seeding.  Finishing as either the 5^th or 6^th seed gets you a game against a team that had to play on Tuesday.  The Friars would have to win all 3 of their remaining games for that to be a possibility, but with a somewhat easy schedule, it isn’t out of the question.
3-2 vs St. John’s  W 74-64
3-5 vs Seton Hall  W 74-62
3-9 @ UCONN  L 76-64

#Cincinnati Bearcats 7-8 (projected record: 9-9)

Like Providence, Cincinnati will be playing on Wednesday.  Unlike Providence, their schedule will make it tough to get into the 5^th or 6^th spot. 
3-2 vs UCONN  W 67-59
3-4 @ Louisville  L 78-63
3-9 vs South Florida  W 80-58

Rutgers Scarlet Knights 4-11 (projected record: 5-13)

Rutgers is locked into the opening day of the tournament.  Due to the odd scheduling with just 14 teams this year, there is a distinct advantage to playing in the 9:00pm game on Tuesday.  If you finish 12^th or 13^th you are forced into a quick turnaround on Wednesday if you win, going from 7:00pm on Tuesday to 2:00pm Wednesday.  The winner of the 11/14 game stays at night and gets a full 24 hours between their game.  The state rivalry game with Seton Hall to close the season very well may determine who is the 11 seed and who is the 12 seed.
3-2 @ Georgetown  L 71-55
3-5 vs Marquette  W 68-67
3-8 @ Seton Hall  L 74-64

Seton Hall Pirates 3-13 (projected record: 4-14)

Seton Hall probably has to win both of their final 2 games to get the 11 seed in the tournament.  The schedule would lead you to think that is possible, but let’s not forget that the Pirates have won just 1 of their last 10 games.
3-5 @ Providence  L 74-62
3-8 vs Rutgers  W 74-64

DePaul Blue Demons 2-13 (projected record: 2-16)

The Blue Demons have finished dead last in the conference for 4 straight seasons and with just 3 games to go they aren’t in last place, so at least they have that going for them.
3-3 @ South Florida  L 74-60
3-6 @ Syracuse  L 85-53
3-9 vs Pitt  L 69-58

South Florida Bulls 1-14 (projected record: 2-16)

South Florida could finish the regular season with just 1 conference win.  Oddly enough it came against Georgetown, who is the likely top seed in New York.
3-3 vs DePaul  W 74-60
3-6 vs UCONN  L 73-72
3-9 @ Cincinnati  L 80-58
#- Clinched Opening Round Bye

UPCOMING GAMES:

Saturday:
Louisville @ Syracuse, NOON CBS
UCONN @ Cincinnati, 2:00pm ESPN Regional
Notre Dame @ Marquette, 2:00pm ESPN
St. John’s @ Providence, 8:00pm ESPN Regional
Rutgers @ Georgetown, 9:00pm ESPNU

Sunday:

Villanova @ Pitt, NOON ESPN Regional
DePaul @ South Florida, 2:00pm ESPN Regional

Monday:

Cincinnati @ Louisville, 7:00pm  ESPN

BETology (based on projections):

TUESDAY March 12th:
7:00pm
12 – Seton Hall
Vs
13 – South Florida (1-0 vs DePaul)

9:00pm

11 – Rutgers
Vs
14 – DePaul (0-1 vs South Florida)

WEDNESDAY March 13th:

NOON
8 – Providence (2-0 vs St. John’s and Cincinnati)
Vs
9 - St. John’s (1-1 vs Providence and Cincinnati)
 
2:00
5 – Syracuse (0-2 vs Marquette and Pitt)
Vs
Tuesday 7:00 winner

7:00

7 – Villanova
Vs
10 - Cincinnati

9:00

6 – Notre Dame
Vs
Tuesday 9:00 winner

THURSDAY March 14th:

NOON
1 – Georgetown
Vs
Wednesday NOON winner

2:00

4 – Pitt (1-2 vs Marquette and Syracuse)
Vs
Wednesday 2:00 winner

7:00

2 – Louisville
Vs
Wednesday 7:00 winner

9:00

3 – Marquette (3-0 vs Pitt and Syracuse)
Vs
Wednesday 9:00 winner

Check back tomorrow for another update!