Wednesday, September 2, 2015

College Football Preseason Top 25

We are less than 24 hours from the start of college football season and with that comes my Preseason Top 25.  Let’s be honest, most preseason Top 25 rankings are nowhere close to being accurate by the end of the year, and actually they could hurt teams that start the season low or even unranked as they try to climb the rankings.  Last year Oklahoma was ranked #4 in the AP Top 25 and even received a 1st place vote.  They finished unranked at 8-5 after a 40-6 bowl loss to Clemson.  Consider this, 40% of the teams in last year preseason AP Top 25 finished the season unranked, including 4 of the Top 13 teams.  In turn, 3 of the Top 11 in the final Top 25 entered the year unranked.  So really, what is the point?
Now, my Preseason Top 25 is not like most, it has nothing to do with team rankings, because as we’ve seen they turn out to be pretty silly at the end of it all.  So here is my Preseason Top 25, the Top 25 things to look forward to this college football season.

25. Ohio State has a cakewalk back into the CFB Playoff: 
They play nobody in the once again weak Big Ten.  Their toughest games are the opener on the road against Virginia Tech (the only team to beat them last year) and at home against Michigan State, the clear-cut 2nd best team in the Big Ten.
24. An FCS team will beat an FBS team at some point this season:
It happens every year, we just don’t know which team it will be, but when it happens it will certainly make headlines.
23. New coaches at some powerhouses in Michigan, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Florida:
Big turnover at some big time schools, with a few of them (Michigan) bringing in some big name coaches.
22. Coaches on the “Hot Seat”:
Randy Edsall (Maryland) has gone just 10-22 in conference play since taking the Terps over 4 years ago, and is 10 games under .500 overall in that time (20-30).  He has also lost the only 2 bowls he has gotten his teams to.
Kirk Ferentz (Iowa) has not won more than 8 games in a season since his 11-2 season that got Iowa to the Orange Bowl in 2009.  He is 19-21 in the Big Ten in that time and has lost 3 of 4 to rival Iowa State.
Paul Rhoades (Iowa St) started his tenure at Iowa St with 7 wins, since then the Cyclones have gone 5,6,6,3 and 2 in the win column under Rhoades.  He has gone 1-17 in the Big XII over the past 2 seasons.
Dana Holgerson (West Virginia) started off on fire completing his 1st season in Morgantown with a record setting Orange Bowl win vs Clemson.  Since then Holgerson is just 18-20 and 11-16 in Big XII play.  He also been pretty average at home, negating a pretty big home-field advantage the Mountaineers have held over the years.  Holgerson is just 15-11 in 4 seasons in front of the home crowd, not a great mark considering WVU had lost just 10 home games in the 9 years prior to Holgerson.
Mike London (Virginia) has not been good at UVA, going 23-38 overall and 11-29 in 5 seasons.  He has also yet to beat rival Virginia Tech in his tenure.
Al Golden (Miami) has not lived up to expectations or recruiting rankings in his 4 years at “The U”. Golden is just 28-22, and an even .500 in the ACC.  Miami has been ranked a total of 8 weeks over the past 4 years and are 0-4 against FSU.
Brian Kelly (Notre Dame) is only on the hot seat because of the school he coaches, Notre Dame.  Kelly has won just 8 games in 3 of his 5 seasons, while going 3-6 vs ranked teams.   He also ended the 2014 season on a bad note, losing 5 of 6 to close out the regular season.
21. The Iron Bowl returns to Jordan-Hare Stadium:
20. The ACC Coastal could be the most entertaining division in all of football:
It certainly won’t be the best division, but with no clear cut favorite and no great teams, but no terrible teams (minus maybe Virginia) it will be a completely wide-open race in this division.
19. Charlie Strong building a winner in Austin:
Year 2 of Charlie Strong at Texas should give us a better idea of what he will bring to Longhorn Country.  He has had 2 good recruiting classes and returns a solid defense and 8 starters on offense, including his QB and entire O-Line.
18. This year the Heisman Trophy race is anybody’s to win:
Over the past few years we have had surprises win the most coveted individual trophy in all of team sports.  Last year gave us Marcus Mariota, but prior to that Jameis Winston, Johnny Manziel, Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton came out of nowhere to win the award.  This year there are plenty of good candidates, just no clear cut favorite.
17. Big XII teams will once again light up scoreboards across the Midwest:
Last season the winning team in Big XII games averaged over 40 points and 500 yards per game.
16. Big XII teams still won’t play any defense:
Last season the losing team in Big XII games averaged over 3 touchdowns and nearly 400 yards a game.
15. Jim Harbuagh is back in college:
Jim Harbaugh once again finds himself coaching against a rival team that has won a national championship and has a top-notch head coach, this could be fun.

14. Ohio State and Michigan just got interesting again:
The Buckeyes have won 10 of the last 11 against Michigan, I doubt that trend continues with rivalry becoming Harbaugh vs Meyer.
13. USC is back, and that is a good thing:
No sanctions, no roster limits means USC is back at full strength and they should be flexing those muscles this season.  Season USC struggle was like watching Tiger Woods in Majors recently.  When Tiger is good, golf is good.  The same goes for the Trojans.
12. The PAC-12 will ACTUALLY be the 2nd best conference this year:
Last season the PAC-12 had all the hype, but then faltered.  This season should be much different.  The Top 8 of the PAC-12 should be as good as any conference in the country.
11. As always, not enough teams will schedule tough non-conference road games:
It is always fun to watch Power 5 teams play against each other during the regular season, unfortunately not enough teams are willing to go on the road for such a challenge.
10. And as always, too many teams will schedule cupcakes in the non-conference:
Only 14 teams out of all the Power 5 conference teams have a schedule without a team from the FCS.  These games need to stop.
9. The ACC will be the Power 5 conference left out of the CFB Playoff this season:
An undefeated Florida State barely got into the playoff last year, and there is no runaway favorite in the conference this year.
8. The Big Ten will once again be overrated:
Yes they have the defending national champion and heavy favorite to repeat this year in Ohio State, but who else?  Somebody really needs to step up other than Michigan State.  Who will it be Penn St., Wisconsin, Michigan? The Big Ten needs to have more than 2 elite teams.
7. The TCU-Baylor game will decide a playoff bid:
Last year these 2 played in an epic game in Week 6 of the season.  This year it has been moved to the last week of November and both teams could enter the game undefeated to play in a defacto elimination game.
6. There will once again be controversy over which 4 teams get in to the CFB Playoff:
4 teams with 5 conference champions, it will happen every year.  Especially when people from the SEC think they deserve at least 2 of the spots.
5. The SEC East will finally be good again:
Tennessee and Florida are both trending in the right direction.  They will add some depth to Georgia and Missouri in the East.
4. The SEC West will still be better:
All 7 teams in the SEC West could be ranked at some point this year, maybe all at the same time.
3. Props to the teams playing true road games to start the season:
All of these Power 5 teams open the season away from home.
Duke (Tulane)
Stanford (Northwestern)
Miss St. (Southern Miss)
TCU (Minnesota)
Virginia (UCLA)
Baylor (SMU)
Texas (Notre Dame)
Oklahoma St (Central Michigan)
Washington (Boise St)
Michigan (Utah)
Michigan State (Western Michigan)
Ohio State (Virginia Tech)
2. Notre Dame once again will be overrated:
When I saw that Sports Illustrated predicted that Notre Dame would make it to the playoff, after I was done laughing, I realized what a genius move it was by the marketing department.  Who has a bigger fan base in the country than ND? Nobody.  Now to be realistic.  The Irish have a brutal schedule to open the season and are breaking in a new QB (I know he played last year, but as a backup except the bowl game).  ND could easily be 3-4 by mid-October.

1. Kickoff Showcase games for the opening weekend:
Every year there are great games to open the season, this year is no different.  Props to the coaches and teams that agree to play these games.  This year’s slate doesn’t have any great match-ups, but a few solid ones.
Alabama vs Wisconsin (Arlington)
Texas A&M vs Arizona St (Houston)
Auburn vs Louisville (Atlanta)
South Carolina vs North Carolina (Charlotte)

Football season is back, enjoy!