After Pitt was humiliated at home Saturday against Penn State,
I saw a tweet that caught my attention.
Pitt’s loss to Penn State means the Panthers have been in a conference the last 28 years & have never gone unbeaten in non-conference play— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) September 9, 2018
My 1st instinct after reading this was to get
defensive and point out that Pitt always plays a challenging non-conference
schedule. However I quickly thought
about that, and asked, “why?”
Prior to the season, almost every media outlet ranked Pitt as
having the toughest non-conference schedule in the country. This year will be the 4th straight
season that they play two non-conference games against high-ranking Power 5
teams. Again, this had me asking the
simple question, “why?”
Why is Pitt scheduling like they are USC?
Why is Pitt playing these games?
Pitt struggles enough to get bowl eligible most years, why
are they challenging themselves so much in the non-conference?
Pitt needs a major adjustment to their scheduling
philosophy.
Why not just schedule wins?
Look at both the 2019 & 2020 schedules.
2019
vs Delaware
vs Ohio
@ Penn State
vs Central Florida
vs Delaware
vs Ohio
@ Penn State
vs Central Florida
2020
vs Miami (OH)
vs Richmond
@ Marshall
vs Notre Dame
vs Miami (OH)
vs Richmond
@ Marshall
vs Notre Dame
These are the types of non-conference schedules Pitt should
have every year.
*3 home games and 1 road game.
*1 Power 5 team (or Notre Dame).
*Minimum 2 games that are almost guarantee wins.
A few years back, someone in the Pitt athletic department
said that they would no longer schedule Group of 5 teams on the road. I ask again, “why?” If you can’t beat a MAC or C-USA team on
the road, good luck in the ACC. Plus, it
is much more likely you beat those types of teams on the road as opposed to
Iowa, Oklahoma State, or Penn State, all of whom Pitt have lost to in recent years. The main goal should be winning football
games. Who cares if you play games against
big-time programs if you can’t beat them?
Looking ahead at future schedules for Pitt, it should not be
all that difficult to adjust the scheduling philosophy to help the program get
more wins. From 2021 to 2028 Pitt has
already scheduled at least 1 Power 5 opponent (again, I am including Notre Dame
in this group). That means that Pitt
should not be looking to add any more Power 5 opponents until 2029. In some years they already have 2 games
against Power 5 opponents. The goal in
those seasons is to schedule the other 2 non-conference games with the easiest
possible opponent. There is no sense in giving
yourself a non-conference schedule that you could lose more games than you
win. Here are what the next 8 seasons
look like as of now, with notes on how I would schedule the remaining games.
2021
@ Tennessee
With a road game and a Power 5 opponent already accounted for with this one game against Tennessee, Pitt should focus on scheduling three winnable home games. I don’t love playing FCS teams, but I realize that it is a trend that isn’t going away any time soon, so I’d add one to the 2021 season. With 2 spots remaining, I’d look to the MAC, AAC, C-USA or some of the lesser Independent teams for opponents. You can typically get MAC opponents to play a road game, without a return game at their place, so that would certainly be in play for 2021. I may also try to get a team like UMASS, Old Dominion, Charlotte, FIU or FAU to agree to a 3-game series with Pitt getting 2 home games out of the deal to just 1 road game. All those schools, minus UMASS, are in locations in which Pitt has tried to make in-roads with recruiting. Playing a game in those locations, is never a bad thing for recruiting.
@ Tennessee
With a road game and a Power 5 opponent already accounted for with this one game against Tennessee, Pitt should focus on scheduling three winnable home games. I don’t love playing FCS teams, but I realize that it is a trend that isn’t going away any time soon, so I’d add one to the 2021 season. With 2 spots remaining, I’d look to the MAC, AAC, C-USA or some of the lesser Independent teams for opponents. You can typically get MAC opponents to play a road game, without a return game at their place, so that would certainly be in play for 2021. I may also try to get a team like UMASS, Old Dominion, Charlotte, FIU or FAU to agree to a 3-game series with Pitt getting 2 home games out of the deal to just 1 road game. All those schools, minus UMASS, are in locations in which Pitt has tried to make in-roads with recruiting. Playing a game in those locations, is never a bad thing for recruiting.
2022
vs WVU
vs Tennessee
With two Power 5 teams already on the schedule, the remaining games should both be nearly guarantee wins. If you play it right, the road game in 2022 will be part of the 2-1 series starting in 2021. That would be a road game coming against a C-USA, AAC or an Independent team. The final game would once again likely be against an FCS opponent.
vs WVU
vs Tennessee
With two Power 5 teams already on the schedule, the remaining games should both be nearly guarantee wins. If you play it right, the road game in 2022 will be part of the 2-1 series starting in 2021. That would be a road game coming against a C-USA, AAC or an Independent team. The final game would once again likely be against an FCS opponent.
2023
vs Cincinnati
@ WVU
@ Notre Dame
Only 1 game to schedule remaining for the 2023 season and it must be a home game against a very beatable opponent. We can pencil in another FCS team for this spot.
vs Cincinnati
@ WVU
@ Notre Dame
Only 1 game to schedule remaining for the 2023 season and it must be a home game against a very beatable opponent. We can pencil in another FCS team for this spot.
2024
@ Cincinnati
vs WVU
With Cincinnati being on the road and WVU checking the Power 5 box, the final 2 games for 2024 should once again be winnable games at Heinz Field. Ideally, the 3rd game in the 3-game 2-for-1 series would be played in 2024 after taking a year off. And yes, they 4th would once again be an FCS opponent.
@ Cincinnati
vs WVU
With Cincinnati being on the road and WVU checking the Power 5 box, the final 2 games for 2024 should once again be winnable games at Heinz Field. Ideally, the 3rd game in the 3-game 2-for-1 series would be played in 2024 after taking a year off. And yes, they 4th would once again be an FCS opponent.
2025
@ WVU
vs Notre Dame
Once again, there are already two Power 5 games on the schedule for 2025, one of which is on the road, so the remaining games would both be home games against lesser opponents. The options here would be a MAC team that would not require a return game (Ball State, Kent State) or possibly the start of a home-and-home series against an old Big East foe like UCONN or Temple, or trying to get another 3-game 2-for-1 series with previously mentioned teams. And, of course an FCS opponent.
@ WVU
vs Notre Dame
Once again, there are already two Power 5 games on the schedule for 2025, one of which is on the road, so the remaining games would both be home games against lesser opponents. The options here would be a MAC team that would not require a return game (Ball State, Kent State) or possibly the start of a home-and-home series against an old Big East foe like UCONN or Temple, or trying to get another 3-game 2-for-1 series with previously mentioned teams. And, of course an FCS opponent.
2026
@ Wisconsin
Wisconsin checks two boxes, road game and Power 5 opponent. The remaining 3 games should all be winnable games at home. Obviously, an FCS opponent is an easy choice. A MAC opponent with no return game would make a lot of sense in 2026 as well. The final game could be Home Game #2 of the 2025 2-for-1 deal or another lower level FBS school that would not require a return game (Liberty, Rice, Marshall).
@ Wisconsin
Wisconsin checks two boxes, road game and Power 5 opponent. The remaining 3 games should all be winnable games at home. Obviously, an FCS opponent is an easy choice. A MAC opponent with no return game would make a lot of sense in 2026 as well. The final game could be Home Game #2 of the 2025 2-for-1 deal or another lower level FBS school that would not require a return game (Liberty, Rice, Marshall).
2027
vs Wisconsin
The return game in the home-and home Wisconsin series gives Pitt a nice Power 5 home game and allows for a return road game in the suggested 2025 series (home-and-home w/UCONN or Temple OR the final game of the 2-for-1 deal). Games 3 and 4 for 2027 would likely be another FCS opponent and another lesser FBS team that wouldn’t require a return game (MAC or others suggested for 2026).
vs Wisconsin
The return game in the home-and home Wisconsin series gives Pitt a nice Power 5 home game and allows for a return road game in the suggested 2025 series (home-and-home w/UCONN or Temple OR the final game of the 2-for-1 deal). Games 3 and 4 for 2027 would likely be another FCS opponent and another lesser FBS team that wouldn’t require a return game (MAC or others suggested for 2026).
2028
vs Notre Dame
With no other Power 5 teams on the future schedule after 2028, introducing another one here wouldn’t be an awful idea. I would avoid upper-echelon teams like what we have seen recently and maybe take a step back in competition and go with teams like Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Rutgers, Cal, Oregon State. We might still have a road return game you owe depending how 2025-27 played out, which is fine as well. And as always, an FCS team will find a spot in this non-conference schedule as well.
vs Notre Dame
With no other Power 5 teams on the future schedule after 2028, introducing another one here wouldn’t be an awful idea. I would avoid upper-echelon teams like what we have seen recently and maybe take a step back in competition and go with teams like Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Rutgers, Cal, Oregon State. We might still have a road return game you owe depending how 2025-27 played out, which is fine as well. And as always, an FCS team will find a spot in this non-conference schedule as well.
With this philosophy in scheduling, Pitt fans still get to
see some decent teams come to town for the non-conference each year to go along
with the regular ACC foes like Miami, Virginia Tech and Syracuse. The worst home non-conference schedule with
this format would be 2021, but in that season, Pitt would get home ACC games
against Clemson and Miami to offset the underwhelming non-conference schedule.
Remember, the goal is to win football games. As a life long Pitt fan, I know I would much
rather see them win 8, 9 or 10 games playing a non-conference schedule full of
cupcakes as opposed to going 7-5 or 6-6 against a murderer’s row of teams in
the non-conference.
