Let the Madness Begin
Okay here we are just 9 days from my favorite day of the year, Selection Sunday, and we still have so much unanswered. Who is in, who is out? Who are the top four seeds? What conference will get the most teams? Lucky for you, I am here and we, as a group, are going to try to figure all these answers out.
First things first, who will be the four #1 seeds? What was a given just a month ago, which was North Carolina, UCLA, Florida and the winner of the Big Ten (assuming that is was either Ohio State or Wisconsin) were locks for the top four spots, can be completely thrown out the window. North Carolina has lost four of their last eight games, including two in a row, both to middle of the pack ACC teams. The defending champs Florida look to FINALLY be coming down from their championship high and has seemed pretty average the past two weeks, losing badly at Vanderbilt, LSU and Tennessee. Wisconsin has lost two in a row after winning 22 of 23 games.
UCLA and Ohio State are still on top and they are both almost certain to get a top seed. Both of those teams are ranked one or two in every major poll and in the RPI. This is where it gets crazy, so who will the last two be? Here is the list of teams that I feel deserve mentioning for the other two #1 seeds:
Texas A&M (24-5) 14 RPI, 51 SOS, 12-3 in the Big XII
Kansas (27-4) 18 RPI, 95 SOS, 13-2 in the Big XII
North Carolina (24-6) 3 RPI, 6 SOS, 10-5 in the ACC
Florida (25-5) 11 RPI, 48 SOS, 12-3 in the SEC
Wisconsin (26-4) 6 RPI, 47 SOS, 12-3 in the Big Ten
Pittsburgh (25-5) 4 RPI, 11 SOS 12-3 in the Big East
All of those teams should be and most likely will get consideration for that top seed, but they need to start playing better basketball and do some damage in their respective conference tournaments. By the way, Memphis, who all the basketball “gurus” have raved about during their current 18-game winning streak, is the most overrated team in the country. During that 18-game streak, they have played ZERO potential NCAA tournament teams. They have played just four teams all season with an RPI under 60 and have gone 1-3 in those games. Look for them to be an early exit in the tournament.
So, that takes care of who is the top seeds, or at least narrows the field down. Next up is who is in and who is out. I am sick of hearing the argument that bigger schools get better treatment from the committee, or the old “East-Coast Bias” excuse, so what I’m going to do is list facts about certain schools, but I am not going to list the school. You get to be the judge on whether they deserve to be in the Big Dance.
Information used below provided by realtimerpi.com
TEAM A: 21-7 (13-5) 40 RPI, 101 SOS
BEST WINS: Syracuse, Villanova BAD LOSSES: Rider, William& Mary
TEAM B: 19-8 (8-7) 53 RPI, 91 SOS
BEST WINS: UCLA, Villanova BAD LOSS: Cincinnati
TEAM C: 22-7 (12-3) 60 RPI, 129 SOS
BEST WIN: Louisville BAD LOSSES: Miami (FL), Temple
TEAM D: 25-3 (13-2) 21 RPI, 123 SOS
BEST WINS: NONE vs top 50 RPI BAD LOSS: New Mexico State
TEAM E: 23-4 (16-0) 69 RPI, 253 SOS
BEST WINS: Mississippi St. Missouri St. BAD LOSS: All 4 vs top 15 RPI teams
TEAM F: 20-10 (7-8) 54 RPI, 55 SOS
BEST WINS: Memphis, North Carolina BAD LOSSES: Wake Forest, Miami (FL)
TEAM G: 20-9 (7-8) 38 RPI, 46 SOS
BEST WIN: Kentucky BAD LOSSES: Auburn (twice)
TEAM H: 23-6 (10-5) 58 RPI, 131 SOS
BEST WINS: Marquette, Maryland BAD LOSSES: St. John’s, South Florida
TEAM I: 23-7 (15-3) 36 RPI, 86 SOS
BEST WIN: Georgetown BAD LOSSES: James Madison, Marist
Let me add that if you cannot win more than half of your conference games you should not be able to get into the tournament, but this year, with all the love that the ACC and the SEC are getting for the “gurus” it will probably happen. I think the Big East is the deepest conference and will get the most teams into the tournament again this year, deservingly so. Although the Big East is lacking the powers that they have had in the past at the top, the depth is still there. I think the ACC is again overrated. The Pac-10, SEC, BIG Ten and Big XII have very good teams at the top, they all lack depth. The Big East can give you 6-7-8 teams that could win a game or two in the tournament, none of the other conferences have that.
The Unveiling of the teams:
TEAM A = Drexel
TEAM B = West Virginia
TEAM C = Massachusetts
TEAM D = Nevada (currently ranked #9 in the country)
TEAM E = Winthrop (only losses are to UNC, TX A&M, Wisconsin and Maryland)
TEAM F = Georgia Tech
TEAM G = Alabama (how is this team ALWAYS ranked in the top 25??)
TEAM H = Notre Dame
TEAM I = Old Dominion
I may be in the minority with this thought, but I believe that playing in a major conferences do deserve the benefit of the doubt if you are considering two schools. I realize that eliminating the Cinderella teams from having a chance might not be the best thing for ratings or for a story line, but the bottom line is that the NCAA tournament is set up to find out the best team in the country, not the best stories. The odds of a small conference, or even a mid-major, winning the six straight games against top competition is very slim, especially when it is the first time they are playing at such a high level all season. On the flip side, even the lower ranked major conference teams have at least played at a high competition level all year and proven they can compete.
All of that and I don’t think we figured out a thing on how the selection committee will pick their 65 teams on March 11th, one thing is for sure, I’m glad it’s not my job.
Friday, March 2, 2007
Monday, February 26, 2007
PITT too Black And White With Gray
Pitt Better Without BIG CITY?
Maybe the University of Pittsburgh basketball team is better without their 7-foot, Big East pre-season player of the year Aaron Gray. Could that be? I first had this thought last week before Pitt played Seton Hall and it was clear that his ankle injury was more severe than originally believed. I was further convinced after Pitt was able to leave New Jersey with a three-point win. Now, after traveling to our nation’s capital to watch the Panthers and Georgetown Hoyas square off for the Big East regular season title, I am more convinced than ever.
Sure, Georgetown beat Pitt Saturday, and all but wrapped up the Big East regular season title while doing so, but during that game, one thing became very apparent to me: Big City Aaron Gray should not have played. This is not intended to take anything away from Gray’s play on Saturday. I thought he was very effective, scoring 10 points and grabbing six rebounds in his 21 minutes. Here is my argument; Pitt is too dependent of Aaron Gray being in the line-up.
Pitt has already wrapped up a bye in the Big East Tournament, which begins next Wednesday in the World’s Most Famous Arena, Madison Square Garden. So, if you really break it down, their last two regular season games do not mean much. Pitt is already a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Seeding is the only thing that might be affected if Gray misses the next two games, and we have seen how seeding doesn’t matter much. Pitt has lost to a worse seed every year in the NCAA tournament since they started making regular appearances six seasons ago. The key for any sports team is to be playing their best at the end of the season. Two of the key factors in playing your best are getting favorable match-ups and being healthy. Right now, Aaron Gray is not healthy, and playing on his bad ankle will only prevent him from becoming healthy.
As I mentioned before, the team is too dependent on Gray being in the line-up. Playing two good teams without him could really benefit the team in the long run. Pitt is much more athletic and a faster team with Sam Young in the starting line-up, moving Levon Kendall to the center position. They are much more aggressive and balanced offensively when Gray is on the bench. Rather than running the entire offense through Gray, every player will need to step up a bit and become more of a scorer. This team is missing that with him in the game. It seems to me that the Panthers run their offense for the first 20-25 seconds of the shot clock through Gray. Then, and only then, if they don’t have something, someone else steps up and makes a play.
I am in no way saying that Aaron Gray in not a valuable member of this team, I think he is the MOST valuable member, but I think it is even more valuable to the team if they learn to play without him on the court. This team needs someone with a killer instinct, and right now, they don’t have that. Pitt needs to learn to put teams away. They need a scorer to step up. They have the scorers, but those players just haven’t had the chance to step up due to the style Pitt plays with Gray in the game. Without him out there, they get that opportunity.
Aaron Gray sits out this week and misses games against West Virginia and Marquette. He gets healthy for the important part of the season. The team gets better for the important part of the season. Add Gray back into a confident bunch of scorers, and this team becomes a tough match-up for teams in the tournament. All of the sudden, if teams take Gray out of the game, the rest of the players know exactly what to do. They don’t panic. They don’t lose confidence. They just pick up the slack. By doing that, they become a better team, and it gives them the best chance to reach the Promised Land in Pitt basketball- a trip PAST the Sweet 16.
Maybe the University of Pittsburgh basketball team is better without their 7-foot, Big East pre-season player of the year Aaron Gray. Could that be? I first had this thought last week before Pitt played Seton Hall and it was clear that his ankle injury was more severe than originally believed. I was further convinced after Pitt was able to leave New Jersey with a three-point win. Now, after traveling to our nation’s capital to watch the Panthers and Georgetown Hoyas square off for the Big East regular season title, I am more convinced than ever.
Sure, Georgetown beat Pitt Saturday, and all but wrapped up the Big East regular season title while doing so, but during that game, one thing became very apparent to me: Big City Aaron Gray should not have played. This is not intended to take anything away from Gray’s play on Saturday. I thought he was very effective, scoring 10 points and grabbing six rebounds in his 21 minutes. Here is my argument; Pitt is too dependent of Aaron Gray being in the line-up.
Pitt has already wrapped up a bye in the Big East Tournament, which begins next Wednesday in the World’s Most Famous Arena, Madison Square Garden. So, if you really break it down, their last two regular season games do not mean much. Pitt is already a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Seeding is the only thing that might be affected if Gray misses the next two games, and we have seen how seeding doesn’t matter much. Pitt has lost to a worse seed every year in the NCAA tournament since they started making regular appearances six seasons ago. The key for any sports team is to be playing their best at the end of the season. Two of the key factors in playing your best are getting favorable match-ups and being healthy. Right now, Aaron Gray is not healthy, and playing on his bad ankle will only prevent him from becoming healthy.
As I mentioned before, the team is too dependent on Gray being in the line-up. Playing two good teams without him could really benefit the team in the long run. Pitt is much more athletic and a faster team with Sam Young in the starting line-up, moving Levon Kendall to the center position. They are much more aggressive and balanced offensively when Gray is on the bench. Rather than running the entire offense through Gray, every player will need to step up a bit and become more of a scorer. This team is missing that with him in the game. It seems to me that the Panthers run their offense for the first 20-25 seconds of the shot clock through Gray. Then, and only then, if they don’t have something, someone else steps up and makes a play.
I am in no way saying that Aaron Gray in not a valuable member of this team, I think he is the MOST valuable member, but I think it is even more valuable to the team if they learn to play without him on the court. This team needs someone with a killer instinct, and right now, they don’t have that. Pitt needs to learn to put teams away. They need a scorer to step up. They have the scorers, but those players just haven’t had the chance to step up due to the style Pitt plays with Gray in the game. Without him out there, they get that opportunity.
Aaron Gray sits out this week and misses games against West Virginia and Marquette. He gets healthy for the important part of the season. The team gets better for the important part of the season. Add Gray back into a confident bunch of scorers, and this team becomes a tough match-up for teams in the tournament. All of the sudden, if teams take Gray out of the game, the rest of the players know exactly what to do. They don’t panic. They don’t lose confidence. They just pick up the slack. By doing that, they become a better team, and it gives them the best chance to reach the Promised Land in Pitt basketball- a trip PAST the Sweet 16.
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