March- In with the Madness, Out with a Champion

Let the Madness Begin

Okay here we are just 9 days from my favorite day of the year, Selection Sunday, and we still have so much unanswered. Who is in, who is out? Who are the top four seeds? What conference will get the most teams? Lucky for you, I am here and we, as a group, are going to try to figure all these answers out.

First things first, who will be the four #1 seeds? What was a given just a month ago, which was North Carolina, UCLA, Florida and the winner of the Big Ten (assuming that is was either Ohio State or Wisconsin) were locks for the top four spots, can be completely thrown out the window. North Carolina has lost four of their last eight games, including two in a row, both to middle of the pack ACC teams. The defending champs Florida look to FINALLY be coming down from their championship high and has seemed pretty average the past two weeks, losing badly at Vanderbilt, LSU and Tennessee. Wisconsin has lost two in a row after winning 22 of 23 games.

UCLA and Ohio State are still on top and they are both almost certain to get a top seed. Both of those teams are ranked one or two in every major poll and in the RPI. This is where it gets crazy, so who will the last two be? Here is the list of teams that I feel deserve mentioning for the other two #1 seeds:
Texas A&M (24-5) 14 RPI, 51 SOS, 12-3 in the Big XII
Kansas (27-4) 18 RPI, 95 SOS, 13-2 in the Big XII
North Carolina (24-6) 3 RPI, 6 SOS, 10-5 in the ACC
Florida (25-5) 11 RPI, 48 SOS, 12-3 in the SEC
Wisconsin (26-4) 6 RPI, 47 SOS, 12-3 in the Big Ten
Pittsburgh (25-5) 4 RPI, 11 SOS 12-3 in the Big East
All of those teams should be and most likely will get consideration for that top seed, but they need to start playing better basketball and do some damage in their respective conference tournaments. By the way, Memphis, who all the basketball “gurus” have raved about during their current 18-game winning streak, is the most overrated team in the country. During that 18-game streak, they have played ZERO potential NCAA tournament teams. They have played just four teams all season with an RPI under 60 and have gone 1-3 in those games. Look for them to be an early exit in the tournament.

So, that takes care of who is the top seeds, or at least narrows the field down. Next up is who is in and who is out. I am sick of hearing the argument that bigger schools get better treatment from the committee, or the old “East-Coast Bias” excuse, so what I’m going to do is list facts about certain schools, but I am not going to list the school. You get to be the judge on whether they deserve to be in the Big Dance.

Information used below provided by realtimerpi.com

TEAM A: 21-7 (13-5) 40 RPI, 101 SOS
BEST WINS: Syracuse, Villanova BAD LOSSES: Rider, William& Mary

TEAM B: 19-8 (8-7) 53 RPI, 91 SOS
BEST WINS: UCLA, Villanova BAD LOSS: Cincinnati

TEAM C: 22-7 (12-3) 60 RPI, 129 SOS
BEST WIN: Louisville BAD LOSSES: Miami (FL), Temple

TEAM D: 25-3 (13-2) 21 RPI, 123 SOS
BEST WINS: NONE vs top 50 RPI BAD LOSS: New Mexico State

TEAM E: 23-4 (16-0) 69 RPI, 253 SOS
BEST WINS: Mississippi St. Missouri St. BAD LOSS: All 4 vs top 15 RPI teams

TEAM F: 20-10 (7-8) 54 RPI, 55 SOS
BEST WINS: Memphis, North Carolina BAD LOSSES: Wake Forest, Miami (FL)

TEAM G: 20-9 (7-8) 38 RPI, 46 SOS
BEST WIN: Kentucky BAD LOSSES: Auburn (twice)

TEAM H: 23-6 (10-5) 58 RPI, 131 SOS
BEST WINS: Marquette, Maryland BAD LOSSES: St. John’s, South Florida

TEAM I: 23-7 (15-3) 36 RPI, 86 SOS
BEST WIN: Georgetown BAD LOSSES: James Madison, Marist

Let me add that if you cannot win more than half of your conference games you should not be able to get into the tournament, but this year, with all the love that the ACC and the SEC are getting for the “gurus” it will probably happen. I think the Big East is the deepest conference and will get the most teams into the tournament again this year, deservingly so. Although the Big East is lacking the powers that they have had in the past at the top, the depth is still there. I think the ACC is again overrated. The Pac-10, SEC, BIG Ten and Big XII have very good teams at the top, they all lack depth. The Big East can give you 6-7-8 teams that could win a game or two in the tournament, none of the other conferences have that.

The Unveiling of the teams:
TEAM A = Drexel
TEAM B = West Virginia
TEAM C = Massachusetts
TEAM D = Nevada (currently ranked #9 in the country)
TEAM E = Winthrop (only losses are to UNC, TX A&M, Wisconsin and Maryland)
TEAM F = Georgia Tech
TEAM G = Alabama (how is this team ALWAYS ranked in the top 25??)
TEAM H = Notre Dame
TEAM I = Old Dominion

I may be in the minority with this thought, but I believe that playing in a major conferences do deserve the benefit of the doubt if you are considering two schools. I realize that eliminating the Cinderella teams from having a chance might not be the best thing for ratings or for a story line, but the bottom line is that the NCAA tournament is set up to find out the best team in the country, not the best stories. The odds of a small conference, or even a mid-major, winning the six straight games against top competition is very slim, especially when it is the first time they are playing at such a high level all season. On the flip side, even the lower ranked major conference teams have at least played at a high competition level all year and proven they can compete.

All of that and I don’t think we figured out a thing on how the selection committee will pick their 65 teams on March 11th, one thing is for sure, I’m glad it’s not my job.