College Football Weekly Rant - Week 10

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RANKINGS!!!

The 1^st College Football Playoff Rankings were unveiled this week, so let’s just dive right in and discuss.  First impressions were good.  I think they did a lot right.  I was glad to see that they did not reward teams like Miami and Wisconsin just simply because they are undefeated.  Neither team has any decent wins and the committee punished them for it.  The difference between the two going forward is that Miami will have multiple chance to get that Resume Win, while Wisconsin could have to wait until the Big Ten Championship Game for their 1^st game vs a ranked opponent.

A big question I have moving forward with the committee is how the look at strength of opponent.  For instance, Alabama beat Florida State in Week #1 when the expectations for FSU were sky-high and they were ranked in the Top 5 in the AP & Coaches (I know, not the CFB).  Now Florida State is 2-5 and might not go to a bowl.  Does Alabama get rewarded for beating a team with lots of preseason hype, or will the committee judge FSU (and that win for Alabama) based on their overall record after the season?

A few things did jump out at me when going over the rankings for the first time.  They committee is setting up some very interesting/controversial storylines and possibilities.

*Ohio State is #6.  That puts the top Big Ten team behind three other conference leaders and three other teams with identical records.  With the SEC holding two spots ahead of Ohio State, with Georgia & Alabama both undefeated, it is possible that the loser of the SEC Championship remains ahead of Ohio State?  Could the committee keep out a 1-loss Big Ten Champ Ohio State team?

*Notre Dame is too high for me.  I had them 4^th in my rankings behind Clemson.  I immediately realized that the committee valued USC much more than I did and rewarded Notre Dame for that win (which I am fine with).  My question that I asked before though rings true about Notre Dame.  If USC falls off and NC State (their other Top 25 win) loses another game or two, will the committee have the stones to move Notre Dame down in the rankings, even if they keep winning?  NC State plays Clemson this week, a loss there and Notre Dame likely loses a Top 25 win.  Likewise, USC plays a red-hot Arizona team.  If Arizona and Clemson win, then Notre Dame has ZERO Top 25 wins, do they drop then?

*There will be A LOT of “elimination games” in the final month of the season, beginning this week.  That makes me happy.

WHAT I LEARNED IN WEEK NINE

*There Is A Lot More Wrong With Florida State Than Just An Injured QB.  Everyone knew that DeAndre Francois tearing his knee in the opener against Alabama would be a setback for the Seminoles.  The team that had huge expectations going into the season was now relying on a freshman QB to take them to the promised land.  However, the weeks since that Alabama loss have shown that Francois or not, this FSU team was not a team capable of winning a National Championship.  They still have huge issues on the offensive line, which held them back last season.  Despite having two good young backs in Cam Akers and Jacques Patrick, they are close to what they lost in 1^st round draft pick Dalvin Cook.  And maybe most importantly, a defense, the reason many thought they could compete for a National Championship, has been BLAH.  They ranked 50^th in the nation in Scoring D (24.3ppg) and 56^th in Rush D (158.1ypg). Not good.  Florida State has the longest active streak of bowl appearances (35), that streak may end this year.

*Florida Gators Have Had Enough Of Jim McElwain.  Jim McElwain has been fired from the University of Florida despite going 22-12 in 2+ seasons and starting his SEC career 16-3 in the conference.  He also won the SEC East in his only 2 years at the school.  He is also a guy that the school just gave a contract extension to in June, extending him 1-year, through the 2023 season.  But losing to Alabama 2 years in a row in the SEC Championship and losing 2 straight years (without scoring an offensive touchdown) to hated rival Florida State had a lot of fans and boosters uneasy.  SI.com’s Andy Staples, a UF grad and college football expert, wrote a great piece of how much more went into this move than wins and losses.

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK TEN

*Bedlam In Stillwater.  Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State.  Both team enter the game at 7-1.  OU is #5 in this year’s initial CFB Playoff Rankings, Ok State is #11.  This is basically a CFB Playoff elimination game.  The rivalry game that the Big XII was hoping would be played in the conference championship game to determine the CFB Playoff representative is now being played out a month earlier, in the regular season.

*An Old-School Big East Rivalry Game.  Virginia Tech vs Miami.  1-loss Virginia Tech is 13^th in this week’s rankings, Miami #10 despite being undefeated.  This is another elimination game between two rivals.  For years this game determined the Big East Champion, now it puts the winner in the driver’s seat in the ACC Coastal race.

*Conference Race Pictures Clearing Up.  Although not nearly as big in the National Picture as the two previous games mentioned, there are quite a few other games that will impact their conferences moving forward.  In the Big Ten Penn State @ Michigan State will give one of these two teams their second conference loss and end any hope they had at catching Ohio State in the East race. Michigan State has yet to play tOSU, so they technically still control their own destiny in the East, despite losing to Northwestern last week.  In the ACC Clemson @ NC State will give the winner the inside track at the ACC Atlantic title and a spot in the ACC Championship Game (likely against the winner of the VT/Miami game). In the Big XII Iowa State @ Morgantown will also eliminate one from contention for a conference championship game spot.  Iowa State is one of 4 teams in the conference with 1 loss.  WVU is lurking just 1 game back, waiting for other teams to stumble.  In the SEC we have LSU @ Alabama.  Believe it or not, despite currently sitting in 3^rd place and having been outscored 100-91 in conference games, LSU controls their own destiny in the SEC West.  If they win out, it will be the Tigers, not Alabama in the SEC Championship Game against (presumably) Georgia.  Out west in the PAC12 Arizona @ USC gives the winner a clear lane to win the South, while Stanford @ Washington State all but eliminates the loser from winning the North.

COACHING CAROUSEL

The first domino fell in the coaching carousel this week with Florida firing Jim McElwain (see above)

Florida Gators – The Gators will spend money for their next head coach.  Despite still paying Will Muschamp his buyout, and still owing Colorado State over $1M for the buyout of Jim McElwain and now paying over $4M of a buyout to McElwain, the Gators still have that SEC money.  Expect them to go after a successful head coach from a Power 5 program.  Their last two hires have been an assistant coach and a Group of 5 coach, they won’t go either of those routes again… Unless it is for Scott Frost.  Frost is the current head coach at UCF, who is undefeated and killing it in Orlando.  I believe that although Frost is on their list, but he is not at the top.  The three names that I think they at least kick the tires on before going to Frost are Dan Mullen at Mississippi State, Willie Taggart at Oregon and Chip Kelly, formerly at Oregon and the Philadelphia Eagles.  One thing that is for sure, is that by the Gators going after a current head coach, this will get the ball rolling for plenty of other coaching moves.  Credit the Gators for making this move when they did too.  There are going to be other SEC schools looking for head coaches at the end of the month and the Gators just got a head start on all of them.

GAMBLING EYE

Penn State (-9) @ Michigan State – Both teams coming off their 1^st Big Ten loss, Penn State seems better suited to bounce back and stay on the tails of Ohio State.  I could see the Nittany Lions taking out some of their anger on Sparty and Co. in East Lansing on Saturday.

Florida (+3.5/+145 ML) @ Missouri – Obviously Florida is a mess right now, as they go through a coaching change, but Missouri has been a dumpster fire all season.  I expect Florida to play one of their better games of the season on Saturday and that would be more than enough to beat a bad Tiger team.

Wisconsin (-14) @ Indiana -  Wisconsin is by far the best team in the Big Ten West.  Indiana is winless in the Big Ten East.  I know they East is better than the West, but I have got to believe that Wisconsin is more than two touchdowns better than the worst team in the other division.

Syracuse (+5/+175 ML) @ Florida State -   To me Florida State has quit on the season.  At 2-5, the Noles no longer want to be out on the field.  Their goal every year is championships, and that is no longer a possibility for FSU.  Syracuse has been very good as their offense keeps improving.  The Cuse have a chance to get wins over Clemson and Florida State in the same season.

Iowa State @ West Virginia (OVER 60) – Vegas likes WVU in this game which has me shying away from the spread in this game, but in my mind, if WVU is going to win, it will be in a shootout.  Both teams have scored 30+ in 6 of their 8 games played and WVU has scored at least 30 in all 5 of their wins.  60 seems very low to me in a matchup of these offenses.

Virginia Tech (-3) @ Miami – This will sound odd when talking about an undefeated football team, but Miami is not very good.  They have struggled in every game and have continuously let teams hang around.  Virginia Tech is a team that if you let hang around, they will make you pay.  The Hokies will be, BY FAR, the best team Miami has faced this season.  I don’t think this game is close on Saturday night.

Arizona (+7/+240 ML) @ USC – I’m riding the Khalil Tate train until he loses.  This kid has played 4 games this season and still leads the Wildcats in rushing by over 400 yards.  Nobody has stopped him yet and I don’t think USC gets it done either.  Tate is a Southern California kid, so this will be a special homecoming for him.  Expect him to put on a show!

PLAYOFF PICKS

I have now started to release my Top 20 in the Rant Rankings the day prior to the CFB Playoff selection releasing their updated rankings.  Be sure to check that out.

That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote-control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!

Rant Rankings 10-30-17

With the first College Football Playoff Rankings being announced Tuesday, I wanted to release my Rant Rankings beforehand.

These rankings are 100% based on what I have seen watching college football to this point of the season.  These are not projections for what I think the committee rankings will be or should be.

1. Georgia Bulldogs (8-0) Georgia has answered the bell every Saturday they have played, and they have done it in dominating fashion.  The Bulldogs closest game was their opener, which was a 21-point win vs Appalachian State.  Georgia held a 31-0 lead in that game with 6 minutes remaining.  Georgia edges out Alabama for the #1 spot due to their quality win, on the road over #3 Notre Dame.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) Bama has the undefeated record like Georgia, but has played a bunch of nobodies.  That Week 1 win over then #3 Florida State was supposed to be a statement non-conference win for Bama, but Florida State now sits at 2-5 and might not even get bowl eligible this season.  Alabama has only 3 wins over teams with winning records, and two of the three were Group of 5 teams in non-conference games.

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1) When the Buckeyes are playing well, they are dangerous.  The downfall is that they aren’t very consistent.  We saw this Saturday.  They mucked it up and played bad football into the 3^rd quarter against #8 Penn State before finally putting their foot down and dominating the final 20 minutes or so of the game.

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1) The Irish have the best loss in college football, a 1-point loss to #1 Georgia.  They have also dominated every other opponent they have faced.  Unfortunately for them, the once vaunted 2^nd half of the schedule suddenly doesn’t look so tough.  The good news is that they should run the table.  The bad news is that the Irish could end the season without a win over a Top 20 team.  They also will not have a conference championship to sell to the selection committee, which we know they like.

5. Clemson Tigers (7-1) Clemson’s only loss the season came when their starting QB got hurt in the 1^st half the game.  When full healthy we have seen the Tigers beat #18 Auburn, #9 Virginia Tech & the reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson and his Louisville Cardinals.  And they beat all of them with relative ease.  No other team in the country has those types of wins.  They get another chance this week when they go to Raleigh to face #19 NC State in a battle for 1^st place in the ACC Atlantic.

6. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) Suddenly that loss to #10 Iowa State doesn’t look so bad, does it?  And that win at #3 Ohio State looks even better.  The Sooners have another stiff test this Saturday when they go to Stillwater for a rivalry game against #7 Oklahoma State.

7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-1) The Cowboys have not been the Cowboys most have expected this season.  While they have just flat-out outscored some opponents, they have also needed their defense to win other games.  With no wins over Top 20 teams currently, the Cowboys face two in their next 2 games.  This week vs #6 Oklahoma, then next week at #10 Iowa State.  These two games will make or break Oklahoma State’s season and playoff hopes.

8. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1) The Nittany Lions finally played a tough opponent on Saturday and took their 1^st loss in the process.  While it was only a 1-point loss on the road, it was also the only time the season that Penn State will face a ranked team.  It is tough to build a resume when you have nothing impressive to put on it.  I really do think Penn State is a good football team, but I just haven’t seen them prove it on the field.  Based on the rest of their schedule, we probably won’t get that opportunity until Bowl Season.

9. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1) The Hokies get this Top 10 spot based on potential.  They do have a non-conference win at a neutral site over West Virginia, but other than that, there isn’t much.  That is life in the ACC Coastal for you.  Their 13-point win over Boston College, although perplexing at the time,  is looking much better as each week goes by.  The Hokies lone loss was to #5 Clemson, a team they may get a rematch with in the ACC Championship game if they can get by #12 Miami this week and finish the rest of the season with just that 1 loss.

10. Iowa State Cyclones (6-2) A 2-loss Cyclone team over some undefeated teams you might ask… YES!  The Cyclones have given both #6 Oklahoma and #11 TCU their only losses of the season, with the OU win coming in Norman.  I forgive close losses, when you can counter them with big wins.  After upset win last week vs TCU, it doesn’t get any easier as they go on the road vs WVU this week, before taking on #7 Oklahoma State in 2 weeks.

11. TCU Horned Frogs (7-1) Taking their 1^st loss of the season on Saturday to #10 Iowa State brought the Horned Frogs back to the pack in the Big XII, but their road win in Stillwater over #7 Oklahoma State is what put them on the map this season.  Still in good position to make the Big XII Championship game, the Horned Frogs need to take care of business the next two weeks vs Texas and #6 Oklahoma to secure a spot in Arlington.

12. Miami Hurricanes (7-0) All they do is win, but that isn’t always enough.  The Hurricanes offense has struggled all season, allowing inferior opponents to stay in games.  Only 2 of the 7 wins have come against teams with winning records (Toledo 7-1 & Georgia Tech 4-3).

13. Wisconsin Badgers (8-0) Remember the Iowa Hawkeyes team from 2015 that drove everyone crazy being ranked so high because they were an undefeated Big Ten team? Welcome to the 2017 Wisconsin Badgers.  It’s not that Wisconsin is a terrible team, it’s just that they haven’t played a good team yet this season.  The Badgers are 5-0 in the Big Ten, those 5 opponents have a combined record of 18-22 on the year.  There is a good chance Wisconsin will not play a ranked team until the Big Ten Championship Game.

14. Washington (7-1) It tells you something about the Pac12 when their top ranked team is #14.  The Huskies seem to be the best of the bunch out west, but that isn’t anything worth bragging about this season.  With no wins to write home about to this point in the season, the Huskies will get a chance to prove themselves against better opponents the final month of the season.  It starts with Oregon this week followed by #17 Stanford, Utah and rival Washington State to end the season.

15. UCF Knights (7-0) Hello Group of 5!!!  Central Florida is the class of the Group of 5 this season with a dynamic offense that leads the nation in scoring.  Their undefeated record includes a win over a Power 5 opponent in Maryland.  As long as they don’t trip up in the final month, the Knights should find themselves in a New Year’s 6 Bowl Game.

16. LSU Tigers (6-2) Don’t look now, but LSU controls their own destiny in the SEC West.  Winners of three straight, if they get their 4^th straight it will come against #2 Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.

17. Stanford Cardinal (6-2) After opening the season dropping two of their first three games, the Cardinal have run off five straight and have resume wins available in their upcoming games.  Stanford still has Washington State, #14 Washington and #4 Notre Dame remaining of the schedule.

18. Auburn Tigers (6-2) Likely out of the SEC West race after losing to LSU two weeks ago, the Tigers still have a chance to make an impact on the overall rankings, as they are the only team in the country that still had to play #1 Georgia and #2 Alabama.

19. NC State Wolfpack (6-2) Two non-conference losses have probably taken the Wolfpack out of the playoff conversation, but they remain undefeated in the ACC going into their game with #5 Clemson on Saturday.  A win over the defending national champs and a trip to the ACC Championship Game is likely, as is a New Year’s 6 Bowl Game.

20. Arizona Wildcats (6-2) It is as simple as Khalil Tate.  Tate took over QB duties 4 games ago.  Since that point the Wildcats are 4-0 and have scored 45. 47. 45 & 58 points in those games. The Wildcats go to LA this week to play USC for the top spot in the PAC12 South.