Thursday, September 28, 2017

College Football Weekly Rant - Week 5

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT

Just when you think you know…

For the first three weeks of the football season I have put myself out on quite a few limbs, willing to stand by my opinions from what I have seen.  This past Saturday those limbs broke, ALL OF THEM.

I had been skeptical of Alabama, especially offensively and they go out a throttle a good Vanderbilt team scoring a season high 59 points on a Vandy team that led the nation is scoring defense.

I anoint Oklahoma State as the best team in the nation, with the best offense and they get stonewalled at home against TCU.

I claim that Clemson is back and they lay an egg at home against Boston College.  Yes, they won, but the game was tied at 7 heading into the final 12 minutes of play before the Tigers scored 27 straight to close the game.

I was disappointed in what I had seen from Penn State in their first three games, then they come through in the clutch winning a tough game in a tough environment.

Oklahoma looked like world beaters and Baylor looked like the worst team in any Power 5 conference. Go figure Baylor throws for 463 and nearly pulls off the upset.

Before we throw the first few weeks out the window completely, remember conference play really started in full force last week and conference foes know you better than anyone.  Winning in conference is never easy.

I do standby my thought that the SEC is incredibly down this year.  It looks like Alabama and Georgia are the only two teams worth a grain of salt.  LSU struggled at home with a not very good Syracuse team.  Texas A&M and Arkansas played a competitive game that went into OT, but both teams looked sloppy and very average, if that.  Mississippi State looked like they could rival Alabama in the SEC West in their win over LSU in Week 3, then were equally dominated by Georgia this past Saturday, mustering only 280 yards and 3 points.

Then we have Florida. 

The surgeon that implanted the horseshoe up Jim McElwain’s butt, deserves some credit from Gator fans.  Florida is the worst good team in history.  Check out these numbers since Jim McElwain arrived in Gainesville in 2015.  Florida has won 21 of 30 and has appeared in back-to-back SEC Championship Games.  Florida has also gone just 3-8 vs ranked teams in that span.  Under a coach that made his money with offense, the McElwain-led Gators have scored more than 30 points in just 6 of the 30 games he has coached.  In comparison, his final year at Colorado State the Rams scored 30+ points 8 of their 12 games.  Maybe even a scarier stat is that in the 24 games that they haven’t scored more than 30, that are averaging just 19 points per game. YET THEY STILL WIN.  It really is amazing!

WHAT ELSE I LEARNED IN WEEK FOUR

*The BIG XII Is Screwed.  The BIG XII has felt that not having a conference championship game is a disadvantage for them trying to get a team into the playoff.  Welcome 2017 and the return of the BIG XII Championship Game.  Now the conference is going to force their best team to beat their 2nd best team TWICE in the same season.  No other conference has that set-up.  And in a year which already seems like it could get crazy, good luck getting the committee to select a team that just lost their conference championship game.  TCU beating Oklahoma State on Saturday makes the Big XII race even more interesting, now that a third team has emerged.

*Washington Is Back.  Actually, I don’t know if they ever really went anywhere.  Struggling against Rutgers is never a good thing.   Nobody should ever struggle with Rutgers.  Maybe that opening game stuck with me a little too much.  The fact that the Huskies followed it up with wins over FCS Montana and lowly Fresno State, gave me lots of doubts heading into their PAC-12 rematch game in Boulder.  They passed the test with flying colors.  Colorado had been dominant it their opening 3 games, especially on defense, but Washington ran the ball right down their throats, gaining 254 on the ground and scoring 3 times.  With question marks coming from USC, Stanford, UCLA and Oregon, the Huskies have proven they are still the team to beat in the conference.

*Notre Dame Is Good???  Okay, maybe I still haven’t learned much about Notre Dame, but I am intrigued.  Each passing week the 20-19 loss to Georgia looks better and better.  I know that losing is never good and unacceptable at Notre Dame, but that’s the best I can do right now.  Wins over Temple, BC and Michigan State are wins, but not much more as none of those teams look like bowl teams looking at them one month into the season.  Notre Dame won’t really be challenged again until USC visits South Bend in Week 8.

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK FOUR

*Weeknight Football.  I know that there are always college games on Thursday’s and Friday’s, but this week they are actually watchable games.  Out with the usual Group of 5 suspects like South Florida and Boise State.  This week we have Big XII, PAC-12, Big Ten and ACC games all before the weekend starts.  Thursday gave us Iowa State hosting Texas.  It was a sloppy game that was more the two offenses shooting themselves in the foot opposed to battling in a shootout that many may have expected.  Texas gets the 17-7 win as both teams are now 2-2 on the season.  Friday, we have a full slate of games.  Miami @ Duke kicks things off at 7pm.  Raise your hand if you had Duke 4-0 at this point in the season (my hand is down).  The Canes shook off the cobwebs last week vs Toledo after being off for 2 weeks due to Hurricane Irma.  Friday will be the 1st big ACC test for either team this season.  At 8pm we go to the Big Ten for Nebraska @ Illinois.  Nebraska is desperate for a win and lucky for the Illinois is awful.  The showcase game however doesn’t kickoff until 10:30 with USC @ Washington State.  Pulman is always a tough place to play and the Cougars seem to always give the Trojans a game.  This will be the toughest test to date for either team.  I am married with 2 kids under the age of 3, so I don’t go out on Friday Night anyway, but you can be certain I will be in front of my TV this Friday Night!

*Better Schedule. Last week’s schedule was so bad that College Game Day didn’t go to a game, they went to Time Square.  Last week did have some close finishes, it really didn’t have any match-ups that moved the dial.   Although not great, this week will be better.
NOON:
We actually get off to a slow start with the noon games, but you will need that after Friday’s trifecta of games.  The best game in the noon kickoff slot is Northwestern @ Wisconsin in a game I think most thought could be the Big Ten West pseudo championship game, but Northwestern hasn’t looked great early on.  Wisconsin looks to clearly be the class of the division.

LATE AFTERNOON (3:30):
Indiana @ Penn State and Georgia @ Tennessee are the two late afternoon games that catch my attention most.  Indiana nearly knocked Penn State off the rails last year, leading the Nittany Lions in the 4th quarter, before Penn State ran off 17 points in the final 4 minutes to stay atop the Big Ten East standings.  This year it could be a trap game for the Nittany Lions.  Penn State is coming off an emotional win at Iowa and now has Indiana, a team that challenge Ohio State and can put points on the board.  If the Nittany Lions look ahead to the upcoming 3 game stretch (@Northwestern, vs Michigan, @ Ohio St) they could be in trouble Saturday.  Georgia should roll Tennessee, but the SEC has been very unpredictable this season.  Butch Jones could really use a Top 10 win to ease the tension in Knoxville.

PRIMETIME:
Clemson @ Virginia Tech is clearly the Game of the Week this week.  Clemson having already knocked off Auburn, and Louisville now gets the Hokies, who look to be the class of the ACC Coastal.  That game starts at 8pm and should have your attention most of the night, however there are a bunch of other decent-to-good games beginning at 7, with Mississippi State @ Auburn.  Another 7pm kickoff that if you like points you’ll love, is Memphis @ UCF.  Both Group of 5 teams already have wins over P5 teams this year and have two of the top upcoming coaches in the business.  At 7:30 you get South Carolina @ Texas A&M which is another opportunity for Kevin Sumlin to get himself fired.  Opposite the Clemson/VT game is Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech in a game that should be fast, fun and full of offense.  And at 9pm, Mississippi @ Alabama should keep your attention until about 9:30 or so when the 2nd half of the Clemson/VT game should be getting underway.

LATE NIGHT:
I love #Pac12AfterDark.  This week we get Colorado @ UCLA, both coming off beatdown losses and Cal @ Oregon both coming off tough, close losses.

HOT SEAT
It is that time of year that the rumor mills get going and coaches start to get fired (by the fans).  So which coaches didn’t even make it through September this season without finding themselves on the Hot Seat?  SCALE 1 (John Calipari) to 10 (Rick Pitino)
Rich Rodriguez (Arizona) – The Wildcats have one PAC-12 win in the past 22 months, that coming in last years’ season finale over rival ASU.  Now in his 6th year in the desert, Rodriguez has just one winning season in conference play at Arizona.  The pricey buyout on Rodriguez’s contract might be the only thing that is keeping him in Tucson at this point. (8)
Todd Graham (Arizona State) – Like his coaching rival Rodriguez, the desert has not been kind to Todd Graham.  The Sun Devils snapped a 6-game conference losing streak last week beating Oregon, a win Graham very much needed.  Still just 2-2 on the year, one would think it is bowl game or bust for Graham in Tempe. (7)
Bret Bielema (Arkansas) – Now in year 5 at Arkansas after leading Wisconsin to three straight Rose Bowls, Bielema has won a total of 10 SEC games.  A roughly $15.5M buyout, due to an extension given to him after his only winning season in SEC play, 2015, might be the only thing keeping Arkansas from making a change.  Although some fans are willing to chip in to help pay that off.  There is actually a GoFundMe page to payoff this massive buyout.  (7)
Mark Stoops (Kentucky) – It’s a good thing that Kentucky is a basketball school, otherwise there is no chance he would still be coaching football there.  9-25 in the SEC with only 1 bowl game in five seasons just doesn’t cut it at most places, especially in the SEC.  Those wins have come against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt (2), Missouri (2) (see Barry Odom below) and South Carolina (4).  Not exactly world beaters.  Eastern Michigan and Missouri are next up for Kentucky.  It would be a very good idea for his Wildcats to pick up two wins in the next two weeks. (6)
Mark Dantonio (Michigan State) – Dantonio has done a ton good for the Michigan State football program and put it back on the map after a 40-year dry spell.  Unfortunately, he went 3-9 last year and his team doesn’t look much better this season.  He could typically weather a few bad years, but they also happen to coincide with recent player discipline issues and rape charges on a few of his former players. (4)
Barry Odom (Missouri) – It has been tough times for Odom in this first 2 seasons at Missouri.  The key there was that he is still in his first two seasons.  Missouri is only 3 years removed from back-to-back SEC Championship Game appearances, but since then they have gone 3-15 in conference play.  This year the Tigers have been blown out in all 3 games that they have faced FBS opponents.  (4)
Mike Riley (Nebraska) – Being mediocre does not sit well with Nebraska football fans and that is exactly what the Cornhuskers have been since hiring Mike Riley (17-13, 10-8).  With the AD that hired him fired last week, it may only be a matter of time before Riley follows.  A home loss to Northern Illinois, followed by needing to score the game’s final 13 points to knock off Rutgers at home Nebraska and Riley have a MUST WIN road game against Illinois this Friday night.  That game is followed by Wisconsin and Ohio State. (9)
Butch Jones (Tennessee) – Jones is in a tough spot for 3 reasons.  1) Expectations in Knoxville are borderline ridiculous. Think about the fact that the Vols hadn’t won more than 7 games since the 2007 season before Jones did it in each of the last two years, winning 9 both seasons.  Yet they still want him gone. 2) A new AD always wants his own guy and Tennessee has a new AD.  3) The SEC East has been awful and the Vols still can’t win it. lOsing to Florida in heartbreaking fashion two weeks ago doesn’t help Jones’ job security.  Losing to Georgia this week won’t either. (8.5)
Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M) – When a Board of Regents member calls for your firing after the 1st game of the season, it is not a good thing.  When you follow that up with 2 more duds (wins, but ugly wins to inferior competition) in non-conference, it doesn’t make things better.  After winning 11 games with Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel at QB in 2012, the Aggies have won 9, 8, 8, 8 each year since and the offensive minded coach has not developed another QB since.  Sumlin is on a week-to-week basis at this point in College Station.  A&M hosts South Carolina this week, then plays 4 stragiht against ranked teams. (9.9999)
Jim Mora, Jr. (UCLA) – After a successful start at UCLA, which saw the Bruins finish in the top 2 of the PAC-12 South in each of his first three seasons, while winning 9 or 10 games in each of those seasons, it has gone downhill.  The Bruins won 8 in 2015 and just 4 last year.  Mora, a defensive coach by trait is seeing his Bruin defense this year allow over 43 points per game. (7.5)

PLAYOFF PICKS
It is never too early to start projecting the playoff.
1. Alabama – I still don’t see anyone in the SEC that can beat them.  Maybe Georgia, maybe!
2. Clemson – Clemson has another tough road test this week in Blacksburg. A win and they would be in control on the ACC Atlantic.
3. Penn State – At this moment Penn State is the best team in the Big Ten.  Michigan and Ohio State will be there with them at the end, but right now Penn State is playing better and more consistent than those other 2.
4. Washington – As with Penn State in the Big Ten, Washington is playing the most consistent football of anyone in the PAC-12.   A favorable schedule that has Oregon and Washington State both travelling to Seattle and skips USC in the PAC12 South makes it even more likely that Washington could be going to their 2nd straight PAC-12 Championship Game.
NEXT UP:
Oklahoma State – 1 loss doesn’t derail the Cowboys chances, but the way they lost to TCU is concerning.  Any more performances like that and they are done.
Oklahoma – If we see the Baylor Oklahoma team then forget about it, but if the Ohio State Oklahoma team gets back on the field, there is no reason they can’t win the Big XII.
TCU – No we didn’t forget about the Horned Frogs after their impressive victory.  They do have to go back into the Sooner state to play Oklahoma in November however.  The Horned Frogs will go as far as Kenny Hill takes them.  Last Saturday we saw Good Kenny Hill.  Too many times in the past we have seen Bad Kenny Hill.
Michigan – They haven’t lost, but they just haven’t been impressive in any games they have played this year.  I think this team is still a year away, but it’s tough to brush them off when they roll out that defense every week.
USC – I just need USC to blow someone out.  I don’t care who it is, but just show me that killer instinct and that unstoppable offense, just once.  I really do want to believe, but I just can’t.  Not yet...
That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote-control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!