COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT
2-LOSS ARGUMENTS
We have not seen a 2-loss team make the College Football
Playoff in the first three years of its existence. That may change this year. There are 11 P5 teams that could finish the
season with 2-losses. Let’s look at each
of their cases for a playoff spot (ranking based on most recent CFB Playoff
Ranking).
#3 Clemson (10-1) – Clemson
can get in as a 2-loss ACC Champ, meaning a loss this week to South Carolina,
then beating Miami in the ACC Championship Game. I don’t think Clemson can afford to lose that
game against Miami however, even with a win over South Carolina this week. Clemson’s “good wins” earlier in the season
(Virginia Tech & NC State) have dropped off. They need a win vs Miami to help bolster
their final resume.
#4 Oklahoma (10-1) – The
Sooners present a very difficult argument.
A 2-loss OU team, means they lose either at home to WVU this week, or
next week in the Big XII Championship Game (most likely vs TCU). A loss to WVU would not be good, because the
committee already is tough on the Sooners for their home loss vs Iowa State,
adding a 2nd home loss would be less than ideal. However, a 2nd home loss plus a 2nd
win over TCU might be good enough depending on how other games playout. Beating WVU, but losing to TCU isn’t the
answer either, 2-loss Big XII runner-up is not going to get Oklahoma back into
the playoff. Oklahoma should just handle
their own business and win out, just to be safe.
#6 Auburn (9-2) – If
Auburn wins out and finishes 11-2 and the SEC Champ, with 2 wins over Georgia
and 1 over Alabama, they are in. No
questions asked. Well, maybe one
question… What do you do with a 1-loss Alabama team?
#7 Georgia (10-1) – A
2-loss SEC Champ Georgia team is almost certainly in the playoff. That means that they either beat the
all-powerful Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, or revenged their only loss
to this point vs Auburn. The committee
would overlook their loss to Georgia Tech if that happens. But it is SEC Championship Or Bust for the
Bulldogs, they don’t get in to the playoffs without a win over Alabama or
Auburn next week.
#8 Notre Dame (9-2) –
The Irish need complete chaos to happen for them to get into the playoff at
this point. Even with a win at Stanford
on Saturday and a 10-2 record, it won’t be enough for the Irish unless they get
lots of help. Some advice to Notre Dame,
JOIN A CONFERENCE!
#9 Ohio State (9-2) –
I must be the only person in America that doesn’t understand how Ohio State
still has even an inkling of a chance to make the playoff. Not only do the Buckeyes have by far the
worst loss of any team in discussion for a bid (55-24 @ Iowa), they also don’t
have any great wins. Sure, if they win
out, that means they beat an undefeated Wisconsin team, but pretty much
everyone (including the committee) has questioned how good the Badgers really
are. In my mind the PAC12 Champ could
have a better case than the Big Ten Champ (unless it is an unbeaten Wisconsin);
Washington State and USC both would have better resumes if they win out. Oh yeah, the Buckeyes also lost to Oklahoma,
a team that could be in this 2-loss discussion.
#10 Penn State (9-2)
– I don’t see any path that leads the Nittany Lions to the playoff. Even in a situation like Notre Dame is
rooting for, no way is the 3rd best Big Ten team getting into the
playoff.
#11 USC (10-2) – The
Trojans will be rooting for Washington State this week in the Apple Cup. A Washington State win, gives USC a chance to
avenge one of their two losses. It also
would give them another resume building win, as Washington State will be no
worse than their current #13 ranking if the two were to meet again next
week. The Trojans needs some other
outside help too, but not as much as you might think.
#12 TCU (9-2) – This
is one of my dark horses in the race.
The Horned Frogs resume took a hit last week after Oklahoma State fell
at home to Kansas State, taking the tarnish off TCU’s win in Stillwater earlier
in the season. However, TCU being in
this discussion means that they will add a win vs Oklahoma to their resume, as
well as a Big XII Championship. It is a
longshot, but not impossible.
#13 Washington State
(9-2) – And my biggest dark horse in the race, the Washington State
Cougars. I don’t understand their
ranking to this point yet, but they really have a shot to sneak into the
playoff. By winning out, that means the
Cougars add a road win over rival Washington (currently #17) as well as a 2nd
win over USC on the season. The Cougars
will be rooting for Stanford this week to not only give ND their 3rd
loss of the season, but to bolster the Cougars resume after a win in Pullman
earlier this month. And don’t sleep on
that Boise State win. The Broncos are in
position to win the Mountain West Conference and possibly gain a NY6 Bowl bid,
just another feather in the cap for the Washington State resume.
WHAT I LEARNED IN
WEEK 12
*Baker Mayfield Is A
Bad Ass. Baker Mayfield talks as
much trash as anyone in college football, but his actions on the field back it
up every time. He Is confident, high
energy and will do anything possible to win.
He is exactly the type of player you want on your team as a leader. People complaining about his “inappropriate actions” last week against Kansas need
to calm down and have a little fun more fun in life. Kansas refusing to shake his hand before thecoin-toss lit a fuse in him and he went off. The fact that a Kansas player then took liberties against him on thefield with this dirty and deliberatelate hit seem to get overlooked by many, as people race to chastise
Mayfield. All Mayfield did was respond
on the field, like he has done repeatedly throughout his career. Mayfield threw for 257 and 3 scores in just
over 3 quarters of work in the Sooners 41-3 win of the Jayhawks. Some advice to all teams going forward, to
poke the bear known as Baker Mayfield.
Some extra advice to Kansas, who are 5-73 in Big XII play over the past
9 seasons, win something before you go and get all chesty again.
*November Is Not A
Good Time For Cupcakes. Someone
needs to let the southern schools know that November is time for pie, not
cupcakes. Apple Pie, Pumpkin Pie, Pecan
Pie, Mincemeat Pie are all great options this time of year. Mercer, The Citadel, Louisiana Monroe,
Delaware State, Western Carolina, Wofford, UAB are not. I get the fact that schools want an easy game
before their rivalry game, but someone needs to put a stop to this. I don’t mind the FCS games (although I have a better solution),
but play them in September or even October, but not in the heat of the playoff
and conference races. After back-to-back
great weeks of college football we had a complete dud last week, thanks in part
to so many teams playing these cupcake opponents. Maybe the playoff committee can punish teams
for playing these late season games, or at least reward the teams playing
conference games at this point in the year.
WHAT I’M LOOKING
FORWARD TO IN WEEK 13
*Rivalry Games. I miss that Pitt doesn’t have a rival,
sorry, I forgot… I miss that Pitt is Unrivaled (that’s what the cool kids in
the middle of the state call it!) I grew
up in a household in which Thanksgiving was known more for being the time of
year Pitt played Penn State, than it was for having a big family dinner. Later it became the Backyard Brawl with West
Virginia that was annually scheduled for the final week of the season. Now it
is … Miami. Conference realignment hurt
a lot of rivalries, including both two that I mentioned. It is a shame though, because they are great
for the sport. Gone are the days of the
Thanksgiving weekend showdowns of Texas/Texas A&M and Nebraska/Colorado. Props to the SEC, ACC & PAC 12 though for
adjusting their schedules accordingly to allow these great rivalry games to still
happen, even if that means paying a non-conference game to close the season.
*Clarity. I know this won’t happen, but wouldn’t it
be great if Wisconsin lost to Minnesota and Michigan beat Ohio State? How about Washington beating Washington
State, while Stanford beat Notre Dame.
Or Georgia Tech beating Georgia.
If these results were to happen, it would seem chaotic as it were
happening, but man would it clear up the playoff picture going into conference
championship week. That would put the
Iron Bowl winner in, along with the Big XII and ACC Championship game winner,
plus 1 more team. It would then be tween
Alabama if they lose the Iron Bowl, and the losers of the Big XII and ACC
Championship Games. Seems pretty simple
to me, and the best part about all that, is that they would actually get the
best teams in the playoff!
COACHING CAROUSEL
NEW NAMES:
UCLA Bruins – The
Bruins cut ties with Jim Mora on Sunday, firing him with 1 game left on the
schedule, presumably to be able to get into the Chip Kelly Sweepstakes before
Florida can get ink to paper. UCLA has
made it well known that Kelly is Candidate #1 for their job, and honestly, it
doesn’t seem like there is a Candidate #2.
The Bruins are paying Mora $12M to go away, after giving him an
extension before the 2016 season. If the
Bruins are willing to pay that much to get rid of Mora, you know they aren’t
going to just turn around and hire some nobody.
Kelly is the guy they want and if they lose out to Florida it will be a
huge failure on the part of the administration at UCLA. In my mind, Chip Kelly is a perfect fit for
UCLA. It puts him back in the PAC 12,
where he was so successful at Oregon. It
puts him in LA, where he had a lot of success recruiting before; now he will
just be asking kids to stay home and play for him. It also allows him to be the alpha dog in LA,
compared to Clay Helton at USC. Maybe
the best part of it all for Kelly, it’s not in the SEC. Yes, UCLA gets attention because it is in LA,
but when you have 2 NFL teams, the Dodgers, Lakers and USC also in town, it
takes a lot of eyeballs and pressure away from you.
Texas A&M Aggies
– This job isn’t official open yet,
but it has been reported by many different accounts that Texas A&M will
fire Kevin Sumlin after the Aggies game with LSU on Saturday Night. This comes to a surprise to nobody,
regardless of when it officially is announced by the school. The Aggies will owe Sumlin $10M as a
buyout. They will then turn to trying to
find a replacement. One name that has
been a given in the search will be former Aggie Chad Morris, who is the current
Head Coach at SMU. I think A&M will
want someone bigger than Morris though.
We already heard the Jimbo Fisher rumbles about this job, and he is
someone that will interesting to watch for this job. I don’t see why he would leave FSU for
A&M, but maybe he just wants a change in environment. Two other names that make a lot of sense in
College Station are Scott Frost and Justin Fuentes. Both played their college ball and have
coached in the Midwest.
UPDATES:
Florida Gators – All
along it has seemed like a job with only 3 true candidates, and it still seems
that way. Right now, it looks like the
Gators are putting on a full court press for Chip Kelly. Kelly met with UF administrators over the
weekend in his home in New Hampshire before doing the same with UCLA in
LA. The ball is in Kelly’s court right
now. I expect him to decide before most
games kickoff on Saturday. If he does
not choose Florida, the Gators will then move to Scott Frost and Dan
Mullen. I still believe that Willie
Taggart would be the best choice for the Gators, but it looks like that will
not happen at this point, much to the delight of Oregon fans.
Tennessee Volunteers
– Tennessee fans still believe that Jon Gruden is a possibility which is
hysterical to me. It has been
surprisingly quiet in Knoxville. The
Volunteers are once again playing second fiddle to Florida, possibly having to
wait and see what happens with Dan Mullen.
As I said last week, Tennessee is not the job that Volunteer fans
believe it is. That said, it is still a
pretty good job. If I were AD John
Currie, Mike Leach at Washington State, James Franklin at Penn State and Justin
Fuentes are just a few of the targets I would have on my board while I wait to
see if Dan Mullen is still available.
HOT SEAT
HOT SEAT:
Kliff Kingsbury (Texas Tech) – This is a name I have been struggling with for the past few weeks. Kingsbury is Texas Tech product and put his name in the record books over and over again during his career there. When he was hired, alumni were hoping he would bring back some of the high-powered offenses that he played in as well as some wins. In his 5th year now, Kingsbury is just 29-32 (15-30 in Big XII) with just 2 winnings seasons. He has gotten the benefit of the doubt in the past because he is one of their own, but that might run out after this season.
Kliff Kingsbury (Texas Tech) – This is a name I have been struggling with for the past few weeks. Kingsbury is Texas Tech product and put his name in the record books over and over again during his career there. When he was hired, alumni were hoping he would bring back some of the high-powered offenses that he played in as well as some wins. In his 5th year now, Kingsbury is just 29-32 (15-30 in Big XII) with just 2 winnings seasons. He has gotten the benefit of the doubt in the past because he is one of their own, but that might run out after this season.
SEAT ON FIRE(D):
Bret Bielema (Arkansas)
– It is only a matter of time at this point. Bielema could be unemployed by Saturday.
Mike Riley (Nebraska)
– Riley, like Bielema, won’t make it another week as head coach at
Nebraska.
PLAYOFF PICKS
I now release my Rant Rankings the day prior to
the CFB Playoff selection releasing their updated rankings. Be sure to check that out.
That is all this week.
Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote-control
batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!
