College Football Weekly Rant - Week 12

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT

BRAND BIAS

Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State, USC, The SEC and the Big Ten. These names are all iconic brands when it comes to college football.  They are household names nationwide.  They draw eyeballs to TV sets and put butts in stadiums, but they should NOT be the deciding factor in who makes the CFB Playoff.  The fact is they do though.  Just look at the most recent rankings by the CFB Playoff committee, they are blinded by the brand just like you and me.  Let’s do a blind test on the Top 15 teams from the most recent rankings.  Below I have them listed randomly with season stats (Wins/ Wins vs current Top 25/ Strength of Schedule/ Record vs Massey Power Top 50/ Best Win based on ranking of opponent in Massey Power Top 50/ Wins over teams under .500).  Pick who you believe are the Top 4 teams in the country…

TEAM 1: 9 wins. 3 wins vs Top 25, #11 SOS, 6-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #10, 3 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 2: 9 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #83 SOS, 1-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #35, 3 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 3: 8 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #10 SOS, 4-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #13, 3 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 4: 8 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #12 SOS, 2-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #8, 5 wins vs teams under.500
TEAM 5: 9 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #20 SOS, 4-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #4, 3 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 6: 10 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #36 SOS, 3-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #21, 4 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 7: 8 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #25 SOS, 4-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #30, 2 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 8: 8 wins, 3 wins vs Top 25, #53 SOS, 3-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #14, 3 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 9: 10 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #47 SOS, 4-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #22, 6 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 10: 9 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #2 SOS, 8-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #9, 2 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 11: 8 wins, 3 wins vs Top 25, #3 SOS, 3-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #14, 2 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 12: 8 wins, 0 wins vs Top 25, #13 SOS, 5-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #20, 4 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 13: 9 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #16 SOS, 6-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #4, 4 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 14: 8 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #19 SOS, 3-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #7, 2 wins vs teams under .500
TEAM 15: 8 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #31 SOS, 4-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #11, 2 wins vs teams under .500

TEAM KEY and link to Massey Top 50 Power Rankings are at the end of the RANT

I still firmly believe that Ohio State was selected over TCU in the 1^st ever playoff based on brand recognition alone.  Ohio State went on to win the National Championship making many forget about how shady the rankings changed between the final 2 weeks of the season despite no teams in the top group losing.  I hope that doesn’t happen again this season.

WHAT I LEARNED IN WEEK ELEVEN

*Notre Dame Needs To Join A Conference.  Two years ago, we saw a 2-loss Notre Dame team, which lost those two games by a total of 4 points and both to ranked teams, miss out on the CFB Playoff.  This year we will see it again.   Granted a 2-loss team has never made the playoff, but this year that is likely to change and Notre Dame won’t even be in the discussion when it happens.  The Irish have long been an Independent in football, but the game has changed.  ND is at a huge disadvantage now as they are competing for the same prize as every other team in the nation, a National Championship.  The Irish are currently ranked 8^th, which is the 2^nd highest of any 2-loss team.  However, other 2-loss teams that are behind them in the current rankings like Ohio State, TCU, Oklahoma State and even Washington State all have better chances of making the playoff than Notre Dame.  The advantages those teams have are clear.  They all have an opportunity to be named a conference champion and by doing so, beating another highly ranked team in their 13^th game of the season.  Notre Dame plays 12 games, not 13.  Notre Dame does not play in a conference, therefore cannot win a conference championship.  Notre Dame will be lacking these points on their CFB Playoff Resume until they make a change, and because of that facing a steep uphill battle.

*A 4-Team Playoff Is Plenty.  You will hear a lot of people in the upcoming weeks claiming that the CFB Playoff needs to expand due to teams being left out.  That is non-sense.  Every team in the nation has 14 weeks to prove their worth to the committee.  The committee then has the job of selecting the 4 teams that are most worthy, based on the regular season and conference championship games.  There are 3 weeks remaining in this college football season and you could argue that 10-12 teams (although the real number is probably 7-8) still have an outside shot at making the 4-team field.  Can you imagine if you double the playoff to 8?  You could have 3-loss teams in the playoff.  When a team can lose a quarter of their games and make the playoffs it devalues the regular season.  The college football regular season is the best in all of sports.

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK TWELVE

*Uniforms. Yes, this week’s schedule is bad enough that I’m looking forward to great uniforms.  The NFL has their Color Rush gimmick for Thursday Night football, college football has UCLA vs. USC.  These two LA-based schools have their annual rivalry game and with it brings the tradition of both teams wearing their home jerseys.  You get the iconic red USC jersey against the light blue and gold of UCLA.  You are in luck too, because even though UCLA is awful this season, the rest of Saturday’s schedule is so bad, that the entire nation can check out these uniforms paired up against each other.  It is the FOX game of the week (ugh!).     

*Week 13.  As I mentioned there are no good football games this week.  The only game between ranked opponents is a match-up between two teams that have combined to beat NOBODY this season, Michigan and Wisconsin.  I’m sure the Big Ten will celebrate a Wisconsin win and try to use it to bump the Badgers up into the Top 4 for the playoff, but spare me.  And if Michigan wins, I’m sure they will jump up into the Top 10-15 in next week’s rankings as the Big Ten Hype Machine will be talking about Ohio State vs Michigan until our ears bleed.  STOP IT!!!

COACHING CAROUSEL

Butch Jones makes #2, with many more coming soon.  

Florida Gators – The Gators have had their opening for about two weeks now and they have made some progress.  Most reports say they have locked in on three candidates and they are the same 3 names I listed as the top candidates when the job became open, Chip Kelly, Scott Frost & Dan Mullen.  I still think that Willie Taggart would be a fantastic hire for the Gators, but that doesn’t seem likely at this point.  With the new Early Signing Day in college football this season, I’d expect the Gators to move fast on this one.  I imagine they will have their guy by the 1^st week of December.

Tennessee Volunteers – Butch Jones had lost his last game against each of the 13 other schools in the SEC after last week’s drubbing at the hands of lowly Missouri (50-17).  That was enough for the university to FINALLY part ways with their head coach.  Tennessee had improved each year under Butch Jones, winning 4 games his 1^st year, 5 his 2^nd and 9 each of the past 2 years.  But even after his 2^nd straight 9-win season he entered this season on the hot seat.  After going 4-6 in the team’s first 10 games, it was time to pull the plug.  I don’t have a problem with the Vols firing Jones, but the expectations Vols fans and administration have for their football program are ridiculous.  It has been 17 years since Tennessee finished the season ranked in the AP Top 10 and 11 years since they finished in the Top 20, yet the expectations by their fan base is that they should be competing for the SEC Championship and the National Championship every year.  They haven’t even won the SEC East since 2007.  They haven’t won the SEC title since their National Championship season in 1998.  Tennessee will flash a ton of cash and go after every big name you can think of for this job, but the fact is, Tennessee isn’t a great job.  We already saw on Thursday that Jon Gruden (their pipedream target) wouldn’t even meet with them about the opening.  I expect them to also try to talk to coaches like Jimbo Fisher and Chip Kelly, but neither of those guys will take that job either.  Bottom line is that Tennessee fans will be disappointed by this hire.  In my mind a few calls that I would make if I were AD John Currie are Mike Leach at Washington State, James Franklin at Penn State and Justin Fuentes at Virginia Tech.

HOT SEAT

HOT SEAT:
At this point in the season, I don’t think there is really any “hot seats” any more.  We have a pretty good idea which of the bigger programs are going to be making a change over the next few weeks.

SEAT ON FIRE(D):

Bret Bielema (Arkansas) – The first show dropped in this one on Wednesday when Arkansas fired Bielema’s top ally, AD Jeff Long.  Like Nebraska firing their AD before the inevitable happens with Mike Riley, it looks the same fate will occur at Arkansas with Bielema.  Arkansas plays Mississippi State this week and closes the season next Friday, the 24^th, against Missouri.  I expect Bielema to be fired by the 25^th.

Jim Mora, Jr. (UCLA) – UCLA is 5-5 which is exactly average.  They could get to 6 or maybe even 7 wins, but that won’t be enough to save Mora’s job.  The Bruins go across town and play rival USC this Saturday in a game that could get really ugly for a UCLA defense that have held just 3 of 10 teams under 30 points this season.  If it gets bad enough, it would not surprise me if the Bruins are being coached by an interim coach in their finale against Cal in 2 weeks.

Mike Riley (Nebraska) – Nebraska just got stomped by a Minnesota team that had just 1 Big Ten win coming into the game.  The Gophers put up 54 points in the game, they had only scored 44 points in their last 3 games combined.  Penn State should be really fun for Mike Riley & Co. this week, we all know that Jams Franklin never misses an opportunity to run up the score.  It looks like Nebraska is going to let (force) Riley to finish out the season, otherwise he would have been gone Sunday morning when the team arrived back from Minnesota.  The Cornhuskers close the season with Iowa. 

Lovie Smith (Illinois) – Smith is only in Year 2 at Illinois, but this experiment is not going well.  Illinois, which plays in the considerably easier side of the Big Ten, has not won a game since September 9^th.  They have also been outscored on average 31-14 in their 6 Big Ten games this season, all losses.  And that is without playing Ohio State or Penn State, the two highest scoring teams in the conference.  This week they play Indiana, which seems like their only chance at salvaging a Big Ten win this season.  Indiana is also 0-6 in the Big Ten.

Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M) – This is another one that seems like a done deal now.  Sumlin and the Aggies are just 6-4, and unlikely to match his previous low win total of 8.  They close the year with 2 straight road games, Mississippi this weekend and LSU to close the season.  Reports from College Station not only already have Sumlin fired, but also are already naming possible suitors to replace him.  Who will be on the sidelines for the Aggies next year is still a mystery, but it certainly won’t be Kevin Sumlin.

PLAYOFF PICKS

I now release my Rant Rankings the day prior to the CFB Playoff selection releasing their updated rankings.  Be sure to check that out.

That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote-control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!

BLIND TEST TEAMS:
TEAM 1: 9 wins. 3 wins vs Top 25, #11 SOS, 6-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #10, 3 wins vs teams under .500 OKLAHOMA
TEAM 2: 9 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #83 SOS, 1-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #35, 3 wins vs teams under .500 UCF
TEAM 3: 8 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #10 SOS, 4-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #13, 3 wins vs teams under .500 PENN STATE
TEAM 4: 8 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #12 SOS, 2-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #8, 5 wins vs teams under.500 OHIO STATE
TEAM 5: 9 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #20 SOS, 4-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #4, 3 wins vs teams under .500 GEORGIA
TEAM 6: 10 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #36 SOS, 3-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #21, 4 wins vs teams under .500 ALABAMA
TEAM 7: 8 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #25 SOS, 4-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #30, 2 wins vs teams under .500 USC
TEAM 8: 8 wins, 3 wins vs Top 25, #53 SOS, 3-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #14, 3 wins vs teams under .500 WASHINGTON STATE
TEAM 9: 10 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #47 SOS, 4-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #22, 6 wins vs teams under .500 WISCONSIN
TEAM 10: 9 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #2 SOS, 8-1 vs Top 50, Best win vs #9, 2 wins vs teams under .500 CLEMSON
TEAM 11: 8 wins, 3 wins vs Top 25, #3 SOS, 3-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #14, 2 wins vs teams under .500 NOTRE DAME
TEAM 12: 8 wins, 0 wins vs Top 25, #13 SOS, 5-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #20, 4 wins vs teams under .500 OKLAHOMA STATE
TEAM 13: 9 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #16 SOS, 6-0 vs Top 50, Best win vs #4, 4 wins vs teams under .500 MIAMI
TEAM 14: 8 wins, 2 wins vs Top 25, #19 SOS, 3-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #7, 2 wins vs teams under .500 AUBURN
TEAM 15: 8 wins, 1 win vs Top 25, #31 SOS, 4-2 vs Top 50, Best win vs #11, 2 wins vs teams under .500 TCU

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings