College Football Weekly Rant - Week 9

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT

They are who we thought they were!

There were two big, primetime games last week and both ended up as duds.  In both cases one team clearly outshined their opponents in every phase of the game.  Penn State and Notre Dame both earned the title of “Contender” after their home romps over rival opponents.  Both teams had looked impressive to this point and won a bunch of games, but Saturday was the first time either of them did it against an opponent with a pulse.

Or did they?  Have a pulse I mean.

This is not to take anything away from Penn State and Notre Dame, as I said, they earned the recognition that they have gotten from their performances on Saturday.  Both have themselves sitting in a nice spot to claim a CFB Playoff spot if they keep winning.  Both also have very challenging games waiting for them again this weekend.

But back to Michigan and USC, the big losers this weekend.  These teams are not good football teams right now.  Michigan has been overrated since debuting at #11 in the AP and #9 in the Coaches preseason polls, despite losing more players to the NFL Draft than any other team in the country and returning the fewest starters in the country.  USC had all the hype after last season and the return of Heisman favorite and #1 overall NFL Draft pick, Sam Darnold.  But they showed their flaws starting in Week 1, when Western Michigan, racked up 263 yards on the ground and was in a 28-28 tie in the Coliseum midway through the 4^th quarter. 

Michigan with their uber-annoying, former NFL quarterback head coach Jim Harbaugh has one of the worst offenses in the country.  The Wolverines rank 98^th (out of 130) in the country in total offense (361 ypg). To put that into perspective to my loyal and local readers who know and follow Pitt, the Panthers rank 94^th.  They rank T-90^th in scoring, just 25.1 ppg and haven’t scored 30+ since Week 2.  Penn State held Michigan to just 269 yards and 13 points on Saturday.  With the loss, the Wolverines now fall into a tie with Rutgers in the Big Ten East standings.  I’m sure that is exactly where all the Big Blue Faithful thought Harbaugh would have them in Year 3 as head coach.  BTW, that big Rutgers vs Michigan game for 4^th place in the Big Ten East is this Saturday at The Big House.

USC has been bad in the trenches all season and now they are decimated with injuries.  As mentioned USC allowed 263 on the ground to a MAC team in Week 1, so even when healthy they weren’t great in the trenches.  They also allowed 3 sacks in that game to Western Michigan.  In their loss to Notre Dame, Darnold was sacked 5 times before the Trojans put up the white-flag late in the 3^rd quarter and he exited the game for good.  The Irish also ran for 377 yards against the Boys of Troy.  Things won’t be getting better for USC this year either, as the PAC12 schedule makers didn’t give the Trojans a BYE week until Week 13, when their regular season will have already concluded. 

Again, I don’t mean to take anything away from Penn State or Notre Dame, but pointing out the flaws of their opponents.  They did just what they are supposed to do when they face bad teams, they dominated.  Both Notre Dame and Penn State are good football teams.  We will be talking about them much more this season if they continue to play the way they have through the first eight weeks.

WHAT ELSE I LEARNED IN WEEK EIGHT

*I Now Believe in TCU. It is probably odd to finally buy-in on a team that is undefeated and ranked 4^th in the country after they played Kansas, but that is what I’m doing.  TCU held Kansas to -6 yards in the game’s first three quarters.  That is tough to do to any team, no matter what level.  TCU did it to a Power 5 (I cringe using that term in regard to Kansas) team and conference foe.  Kansas had one 1^st down in the opening drive of the game.  They didn’t have another until the :57 mark of the 3^rd quarter, and that came via penalty.  The Jayhawks longest drive of the game was 17 yards.  That came in their final possession, while facing TCU’s 3^rd string defense. 

*The B1G West is Awful.  I say it all the time, but the Big Ten in general is over rated and because of that, Big Ten teams benefit from inflated records.  The Big Ten West is especially over rated however!  Once again, we have a Big Ten West team high in the rankings, just because they are beating up on other Big Ten West teams.  Just like Iowa two seasons ago, Wisconsin is sitting undefeated and unchallenged in the #5 spot in this week’s rankings.  How did that work out for Iowa???  Just to refresh your memory, they lost in the Big Ten Championship game, then trailed 38-0 in the Rose bowl to Stanford before the Cardinal called off the dogs in a 45-16 romp.  Last year Wisconsin lost 3 games, all to Big Ten East teams.  Can’t we just make a mandate that if you haven’t beaten a ranked team by the 1^st Saturday in October, you can’t be ranked in the Top 10???  FUN FACT #1: With Michigan falling out of the Top 25, the ENTIRE Big Ten now has a grand total of ONE victory over a ranked team this season.  That win was Iowa beating Iowa State 44-41 in Week 2.  Iowa State is ranked #25 this week, and very well could be unranked this time next week after playing #4 TCU on Saturday. 

Just look at ESPN’s Stats & Info Department’s FootballPower Index and the strength of schedules this year.  There are 64 Power 5 conference teams, 65 if you add Notre Dame.  Here is the bottom of that list:

58) Iowa
59) Rutgers
60) Penn State
61) Illinois
62) Indiana
63) Wisconsin
64) Minnesota
65) Northwestern

The only P5 teams in the country with a worse strength of schedule than undefeated Wisconsin are two teams in their division. 

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK NINE

*Show Me Games.  Notre Dame and Penn State have to come off of high intensity, high emotion wins against rivals to face even tougher tests this week.  THIS WEEK will be their big games, not last week.  NC State will be the toughest defense the Irish have faced since their Week 2 loss to Georgia.  The Bulldogs held ND to 55 yards on the ground, on 37 carries.  Georgia ranks 4^th national in Rush Defense.  NC State comes in just 2 spots behind the Bulldogs, ranking 6^th on the season, giving up just 91.3 yards per game.  FUN FACT #2: Notre Dame has never scored a touchdown against NC State.  The Wolfpack are 2-0 all-time vs the Irish, limiting them to just 3 field goals, while outscoring them 38-9.

Penn State travels to Columbus, to face Ohio State, the team they knocked off last year on their way to winning the Big Ten East.  Ohio State presents an interesting test for Penn State, simply because they have a functioning offense.  Penn State has not seen one of those yet this season.  Penn State leads the nation in Scoring Defense, giving up just 9.6 ppg.  They also rank 9^th in Total Defense, allowing just over 280 yards per game.  Those numbers may be a little misleading however, when you realize that they have not played a team that ranks in the Top 70 in Total Offense or in the Top 80 in Scoring Offense.

Here are the 7 opponents Penn State has faced this season, and their ranking in Total Offense and Scoring Offense (out of 130):

Akron – 117 Total Offense / 101 Scoring Offense
Pitt – 94/97
Georgia State – 89/114
Iowa – 103/81
Indiana – 95/89
Northwestern – 74/83
Michigan – 98/90

Ohio State ranks 3^rd nationally in Total Offense (577.3 ypg) and is tied for 1^st in Scoring Offense (47.3 ppg).

Another interesting nugget on these games, both NC State and Ohio State had BYE weeks last week, giving them 2 weeks to prepare.

*Afternoon Football.  Due to Game 4 of the World Series, it seems like the networks have elected to schedule their top games all in the afternoon this week, to prevent a ratings battle.  Oklahoma State @ West Virginia is a Noon kick Saturday and it features two ranked teams trying to stay alive for a Big XII Championship Game bid.  Both teams enter the game in a 4-way tie for 2^nd place in the conference at 3-1.  The 3:30 timeslot is slammed with good games.  We mentioned NC State @ Notre Dame already as well as Penn State @ Ohio State, but we also have the rivalry game formerly known as The World Largest Cocktail Party, with Georgia vs Florida in Jacksonville as well as an under the radar game between two ranked teams with TCU @ Iowa State.  Iowa State is in that 4-way tie with WVU and OK State in the Big XII.  TCU sits unbeaten and in 1^st place in the conference.  Iowa State has never won a home game against the Horned Frogs.  Michigan State @ Northwestern is another game to keep an eye on in the 3:30 timeslot.  Sparty is tied with Ohio State and Penn State at 4-0 in the Big Ten East.

*What Is Going To Happen To USC?  As we covered already, USC is a football team with a lot of issues.  That said, they are still in 1^st place in the PAC12 South at 4-1 in conference.  This week however, they have a 3-1 (PAC12 record) Arizona State team in Tempe.  Arizona State has back-to-back wins over Washington and Utah and also beat Oregon earlier this season (before the Justin Herbert injury derailed the Ducks season).  This is suddenly a very losable game for USC and considering they then have Khalil Tate and Arizona next week, the Trojans could be looking at four straight losses if they can’t right the ship and get a road win against the Sun Devils.

HOT SEAT
We started the HOT SEAT section of the Weekly Rant the last week of September, updating you throughout October.  It is now time to remove some coaches from the HOT SEAT, while adding another.

OFF THE HOT SEAT:

Rich Rodriguez (Arizona) – It only took him 10 years, but RichRod finally found his next Pat White in Khalil White and is now off the HOT SEAT and suddenly a legit contender in the PAC12 South.

Todd Graham (Arizona State) – Like his coaching rival Rodriguez, something finally clicked for Graham and the Sun Devils and after 1-2 start in the non-conference.  ASU could be sitting in 1^st place in the PAC12 South after this weekend, allowing Graham to sit in a much cooler and comfortable coaching seat.

Mark Dantonio (Michigan State) – Dantonio was barely on the HOT SEAT to begin with, but now he is completely off.  MSU had a down year last year, going just 3-9 and having some off-the-field issues within their roster which raised questions about Dantonio.  He then got drummed at home by Notre Dame in Week 3, which in hindsight wasn’t nearly as bad of a loss as originally though considering what ND has gone on to do.  Sparty hasn’t lost since.  Dantonio is going anywhere any time soon.

Mark Stoops (Kentucky) – Stoops was probably on this list prematurely.  We must remember this is Kentucky, and if Stoops can stay out of trouble and goes to bowl games, he isn’t going anywhere.  Kentucky is a basketball school in a Football conference.  Stoops is 5-2 right now and that is good enough to the Big Blue Nation who is just waiting for the 1^st tip of the hoops season.

NEW ADDITIONS:

Gus Malzahn (Auburn) – Seems odd to have the head coach of a 2-loss team on the HOT SEAT, but Auburn has been looking for a reason to fire this guy since last year.  As a matter of fact, he probably would have been fired after the LSU game last season had instant replay not overturned the final play of the game.  Instead, Les Miles was fired.  Oddly enough, it was LSU again that may do in Malzahn.  His Tigers blew a 20-point lead 2 weeks ago, losing 27-23 and giving a struggling LSU team life in the SEC East.  Auburn could easily lose their final 3 SEC games, which includes Alabama in the Iron Bowl the final week of the season.  Malzahn is 1-3 vs Nick Saban in the rivalry game, losing the last three, while being outscored 114-69.

Lovie Smith (Illinois) – When Illinois made this hire 2 years ago, it made a lot of sense.  Illinois is never going to be a football power, so why not just hire a local legend (taking the Bears to the Super Bowl gives you legend status in Illinois) to get people talking about the program and let him try to change the perception?  Well things went sideways in a hurry and now Illinois is stuck just 2 years into an 6yr/$21M deal.  The Illini are just 5-14 in their 1^st 19 games under Smith, and while that is a small sample size, there is nothing that looks like he is turning things around.  The Illini haven’t won a game since Sept 9^th, and haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game since Nov 5^th, last season!  They also lost to Rutgers two weeks ago, that alone is a fireable offense at most Power 5 programs.

Clay Helton (USC) -  This one is a longshot, but a possibility.  When Helton was hired in 2015 after taking over in an interim role, it came to most as a surprise.  Helton then started his career as 1-3 to open the 2016 season.  There were whispers at that point, just 4 games into his career, that he may not last long.  Then came a QB switch and a very favorable portion of the schedule, which led to the Trojans finding their stride and running off 9 straight to close the season.  This year however, with lofty preseason expectations the Trojans have struggled in every aspect of the game.  Their 6-2 record doesn’t tell the full story.  Helton probably makes it through the season and begins the 2018 season squarely on the HOT SEAT, but if things get worse and the Trojans falter down the stretch, don’t be shocked if they cut their ties with the 2^nd year head coach.

STILL HOT:

Barry Odom (Missouri) – Odom should have never been on the Hot Seat to begin with.  If Missouri still played football in the Big XII there would be no talk of firing him.  However, Mizzou is now in the SEC, the place where football rebuilds don’t exist, regardless of how much they are needed.  T question now becomes, does Missouri think rationally or do they think like an SEC football program?  Odom has certainly taken his lumps in his first year-plus as head coach, but this is YEAR TWO!!!!  Give the guy some time.  I think he is safe, but it is tough to try to figure out what SEC schools are thinking when it comes to coaching.

SEAT ON FIRE(D):

Bret Bielema (Arkansas) – 2-5 overall this season and 0-4 in the SEC, Bielema is good as gone.  Arkansas has Ole Miss this week and if they lose that, they will be lucky to get to 4 wins on the season. 

Mike Riley (Nebraska) – The good news for Mike Riley and all Cornhusker fans is that Nebraska is currently in 2^nd place in the B1G West.  The bad news is that the B1G West is awful (see above) and the Cornhuskers have a losing record this season and might not get bowl eligible.  Even though he is still on the sidelines, Riley was essentially fired when his AD took the bullet for him back in September.  Then AD Shawn Eichorst was reportedly told to fire Riley after the Huskers lost to Northern Illinois.  When he refused, he was fired. 

Butch Jones (Tennessee) – Jones is another one that is good as gone come Dec 1^st.  He has followed the “How To Not Secure Your Job” manual to near perfection this season.  0-4 in the SEC East while getting outscored 127-36 in those 4 games, won’t cut it most places. It certainly won’t cut it in Knoxville.  Just think if Georgia Tech didn’t go for 2 and the win in the season opener against Tennessee, they could be staring at 2-5 right now, with their only wins coming against Indiana State and UMASS.  The Vols have some winnable games remaining on their schedule, but it is too late at this point.

Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M) – This is a tough one.  I want to move his to the STILL HOT section because he has the Aggies at 5-2 and they just might be the 2^nd best team in the SEC West.  The problem is that the people making the decisions at Texas A&M are idiots and are just looking for reasons to fire Sumlin.  A loss in two weeks to Auburn or in the finale against LSU might be enough for them.  Either way, Sumlin will land on his feet and find another job in no time.  Deep down, I am hoping that Sumlin and the Aggies win-out and finish 10-2, then Sumlin leaves on his own, taking another job, preferably in the SEC where he can torture A&M annually.

Jim Mora, Jr. (UCLA) – 4-3, 2-2 is not what UCLA expected in Year 6 of Jim Mora, Jr.  Having one of the worst defenses in America is also not something they expected.  The Bruins had a chance to stand out when USC was down.  They missed that opportunity.  The final 5 games of the season will be make or break for Mora and the Bruins.  Washington, Utah, Arizona St, USC & Cal all are good enough to beat UCLA.  The toughest part for UCLA is asking the question, “Who are you going to get that will be better?”   

PLAYOFF PICKS

These are the 4 best undefeated teams in college football right now.  I am not sold that they are the 4 best overall teams in college football, but being undefeated certainly gives you a leg up in the Playoff Race.

1. Alabama

2. Georgia

3. Penn State

4. TCU

NEXT UP:

Clemson

Oklahoma State

Oklahoma

Ohio State

Notre Dame

Miami

That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote-control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!