Pitt Panthers Mid Season Report

We are now at the mid-way point in the college football season, so I wanted to go back and take a look at the 1^st 6 games for the Pitt Panthers.

OVERVIEW:
Pitt is 5-1 for the 1^st time since the 2009 season, when the Panthers started 9-1.  Of those 5 wins for Pitt, 3 of them have come against teams that beat them last year (Akron, Virginia, Georgia Tech).  They also have wins against Youngstown State, who they lost to the last time the two teams played in Paul Chryst’s debut and Virginia Tech, who was considered to be one of the two favorites in the ACC Coastal this season (Georgia Tech the other).  Pitt has played 4 of 6 games on the road, winning 3 of them.  The Panthers only loss has come to an undefeated Iowa team on the road in a game that ended on a 57-yard field goal to give the Hawkeyes a 27-24 victory.

The Panthers are 3-0 to start conference play, something that last happened in 2010 as a member of the Big East.  Pitt still has 5 ACC games remaining on the schedule, to go with a non-conference game against Notre Dame. 

OFFENSE:
The Pitt offense suffered a major loss in the 1^st half of the 1^st game of the season when they saw the reigning ACC Offensive Player of the Year, James Conner, go down with a season ending knee injury.  They have also seen their returning starter at quarterback, Chad Voytik, get replaced by graduate transfer Nate Peterman.  The offense has not been the same without these 2 players on the field.  It currently ranks 105^th in the nation in total offense, averaging 346 yards per game.  Last year the Panthers were 40^th in the country, averaging nearly 100 more yards per game.

Peterman offers a different style of play than Voytik.  Peterman has a bigger and better arm than Voytik, but really seemed to struggle grasping the system early on, making many fans, myself included, wonder why he was the choice over Voytik.  I think the biggest problem with the offense has come in the many differences between the Peterman and Voytik.  The thing that made Voytik so good last year was his running ability.  Last year he had 2 games in which he ran for over 100 yards.  Peterman isn’t that type of player.  He is a pocket passer, which Voytik is not.  Although both quarterbacks are learning a new system under new offensive coordinator Jim Chaney, this system is a much better fit for Peterman than Voytik.  Peterman has gotten better in each of his last 3 games as quarterback, with his 3 touchdown performance against Georgia Tech on Saturday being his best game of the year.

With Conner out for the year and a new quarterback at the helm, a lot of defensives have stacked the box to take the run away, while also trying to shutdown Tyler Boyd, thus forcing Peterman and the inexperienced wide receiving corp to beat them.  To this point nobody has been able to take Boyd out of the game, as he has 41 of the teams 91 receptions, despite being suspended for the season opener.  Also, the trio of Qadree Ollison, Chris James and Darrin Hall have been just good enough at running back to keep the running threat in play.

The play of the offensive line coming into the season was a question mark due to injuries.  Since then, the Panthers have stayed somewhat healthy and the unit as a whole has performed well.  Pitt has allowed just 14 sacks in 6 games this season and have averaged just over 5 negative plays per game on the offensive side of the ball.  Considering some of the more high profile type offenses in the country like, West Virginia, Boise State and Arizona State all average nearly double that, 5 isn’t all that bad.  Nationally that ranks around 50^th out of the 127 teams in college football this season.

Basically, the offense is a work in progress.  It has been just good enough to this point in the season to produce the results necessary for this team.  This is a young and inexperienced unit that will only get better the more they play together as a group.  That is a good thing for this Panther team.

DEFENSE:
When Pat Narduzzi came to Pitt, most people figured he would bring his tough, physical and stingy defense with him, they just didn’t think it would produce so quickly.  With a lot of the same players back from last year, the defensive side of the ball has put up considerably better numbers.  The Panthers are allowing 60 yards and 5 points less per game this season.  In just 6 games, they have also already surpassed their total sack numbers from last year (19 to 22).  Pitt is ranked in the top 20 national in 1^st Downs Allowed (6^th), Passing Yards Allowed (12^th), Sacks (3^rd), Tackles for Losses (19^th), Total Defense (17^th).

Two of the players this season that have helped the defense improve are freshman safety Jordan Whitehead, who leads the team in tackles and senior defensive lineman Ejuan Price, who has been a menace in opposing backfields, leading Pitt tackles for losses and 2^nd on the team in sacks.  Whitehead, a highly touted recruit last year, has come right in and contributed immediately.  Price, has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, but finally seems healthy and playing to his potential.

The Pitt defense has been what has kept the Panthers in games this season while the offense was trying to find its footing.  That is a complete role reversal of the two units from last year, when the Pitt offense had to outscore their opponents because their defense couldn’t stop anyone.

The one area that Pitt could certainly improve at on the defensive side of the ball is in the takeaway department.  Pitt has only forced 8 turnovers this season (2 fumbles, 6 interceptions).  The Panthers only forced 14 turnovers all of last season, so they are ahead of that pace, but that is still well below the national average.

This unit has been a pleasant surprise for the Panthers this season and they have needed it to be with the offense being sluggish at times.  The defense is playing fast and aggressive and the more success they have the more confidence the players will get.  The defense has been very good this season and should get even better as the season progresses.

SPECIAL TEAMS:
The Pitt Special Teams unit hasn’t been all that special this season.  While they have had their moments of greatness, they have been just average for the most part so far.  Pitt has scored 2 touchdowns on PT this year, a kick return for a score in the opener vs Youngstown State and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown at Iowa.  In the kicking game, although Chris Blewitt made a clutch 56-yard FG to win the game against Georgia Tech, he has just been okay overall this season, going just 6 of 9 in field goals.  He has made all 21 extra points, but if you are a scholarship kicker in division 1 football, you should make all your extra points.  The punting of Ryan Winslow has been good, but not great.  He has shown the ability to place the ball and have some touch punting inside the 20, but he hasn’t done it on a consistent basis.  In the return game, Pitt hasn’t been great on returns or on kick coverage.  I guess the best way you can look at it is that they are averaging about 7 yards more per kick return than allowed and almost 3 yards more per punt.  That net yardage can add up and shift field position, which is never a bad thing.  The Panthers have blocked 3 kicks this year, which is tied for 2^nd in the nation.  That is obviously pretty good.

For me the having an excellent Special Teams unit is a bonus.  Special Teams can be a game changer for you if you do things right.  At the same time, it can cost you a game if you do things poorly.  Pitt has done just enough on special teams to impact games for a positive, while not having their special teams cost them any games.

COACHING:
Another season, another coaching staff.  That is just the way things have gone at Pitt in the past 5 years or so.  The excitement that came in with Pat Narduzzi and his staff has certainly not worn off to this point.  One of the things that Narduzzi preached early on and has continued to talk about was changing the mindset of this team.  He wanted them to expect to win and be confident.  I feel that the Panthers have done that in every game this season.  In years past, Pitt would not have been 5-1 at this point.  They have only outscored their opponents by an average of 6 points, yet are still 5-1.  That means that they are winning close games.  They are winning in the 4^th quarter.  That has historically been when Pitt decided to fold.  Not this year.  I think the coaching staff is the reason.

LOOKING FORWARD:
Pitt has 6 games left beginning this Saturday at Syracuse.  After that, the Panthers leave Heinz Field just once, a road game against Duke.  That means Pitt gets 4 of their final 5 games at home.  If Pitt can get past Syracuse this week, they will be 6-1 with 5 of those 7 games on the road.  Coming home for that final stretch could be the difference for this team.  They will get North Carolina at home in a game that should greatly impact the ACC Coastal division.  With both undefeated in ACC play, the winner will be in the driver’s seat going into the final month of the season.  They also get Notre Dame at home.  The Irish have much more talent than Pitt this season, but that hasn’t stopped the Panthers in previous years against Notre Dame.  Pitt has won 2 of the last 3 at Heinz Field between these 2 teams and each of the last 6 meeting have been decided by a touchdown or less.

In the Panthers final 6 games they have 3 games in which they should win (Syracuse, Louisville, Miami), 2 games in which could go either way (UNC, Duke) and 1 in which they will be considered an underdog (Notre Dame).  That said, we know how Pitt works, they could go 1-5 with their lone win being against ND and I don’t know if I would be surprised.  Either way, it should be a fun final 6 games.

Week 7 Review

After 7 weeks into the season, I have come up with 5 categories to describe where various teams stand.

STUDS
Teams that have to look of true national title contenders at this point in the season.

Baylor – The Bears offense is beyond video game mode right now.  They have scored 56 or more in every game this season, and 62+ in their last 5.  14 different players have scored offensive touchdowns so far for Baylor, there are 8 FBS teams that have 14 fewer TOTAL touchdowns this year.  The Bears are averaging 63.8 points per game, the difference between them and the 2^nd best offense in the nation (TCU) is the same difference as the 2^nd best offense and the 30th best offense.

Utah – It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Utes just keep winning.  Utah scored the final 20 points on Saturday night to beat Arizona State.  Utah is the only remaining undefeated team in the PAC-12 and 1 of 2 with CFB Playoff hopes.  The other being 1-loss Stanford.

Michigan State – The greatest ending to a college football game in history?  Seriously, I know that we live in the present a whole lot nowadays and make bold statements like that all the time, but I can’t think of anything bigger than the last :10 at the Big House on Saturday.  The Spartans have struggled at times this year, but they have still yet to lose.  They have 3 very winnable games (vs IND, @ NEB, vs MD) on the schedule before a showdown in Columbus with Ohio State.

Clemson – The offense has weapons all over the field and the defense is one of the best in the country.  The undefeated Tigers have 2 ACC road games before a showdown with undefeated Florida State at home November 7^th.  If they can take care of business, the ACC might have their 2^nd representative in the CFB Playoffs in 2 years.

Stanford – Since the Cardinal week 1 loss to Northwestern, they have been just dominating teams.  As I said when it happened, no west coast team should travel east for a noon kickoff, and that is just what happened in that opening game loss.  (They can thank ESPN for scheduling that one for them).  Stanford looked sluggish that entire game and probably shouldn’t be judged on that game, but will.  If Stanford is going to make a run at the PAC-12 title and a CFB Playoff spot, they are going to earn it.  They close with Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame, and the PAC-12 title game (probably Utah).

LSU – The top team in the SEC to this point of the season.  Alabama may have something to say about that November 7^th, but until then, the Tigers get to hold that claim.  The Tigers get a warm-up this week with Western Kentucky before a week off.  Then they will travel to Tuscaloosa for that showdown with the Tide.  LSU has done it with the running of Leonard Fournette and the rush defense.  The Heisman favorite has run for 1,202 yards and 14 scores in 6 games, while the LSU defense is allowing just 92 yards per game and 5 scores.  The one negative with LSU to this point is that they have let teams hang around in games they should have put away.  That could hurt them if they continue that trend.

Alabama – The Tide have looked like a completely different team since their home loss to Ole Miss last month.  Alabama have 28 point and 18 point victories on the road against Top-10 teams in their last 3 games.  The bad news for Alabama is that the SEC doesn’t seem to have a ton of top notch teams, which could hurt as they look for big wins to get back into the CFB Playoff picture.  The good news is that they are Alabama and are normally given the benefit of doubt.  That, and the fact that they do have at least 1 more chance to impress when they host LSU on the 1^st Saturday of November.

DUDS
Teams that had a good showing out of the gate and got the hopes up of their fan base only to fall flat on their face since.

West Virginia – The Mountaineers opened the season playing one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the country.  After jumping out to a 3-0 start after beating up on the likes of Georgia Southern, Liberty and Maryland, WVU has dropped 3 straight by a combined 51 points and 1 of those 3 went to OT.  At 0-3 in the Big XII play and TCU on deck, you have to wonder if the wheels will come off for the Mountaineers.  It isn’t crazy, looking at their schedule to think that they could start 0-6 in conference play this year.  If that happens, does Dana Holgerson have a job come December?

Northwestern – The Wildcats started the season 5-0 with wins over Stanford and Duke.  Since then, they have lost 2 straight by a combined 68 points.  Luckily, they play in the Big Ten West so they don’t have many more games that should challenge them.  But you have to think that Northwestern saw a schedule without Ohio State and Michigan State and thought this season could be something special after that hot start.

Boise State – The Broncos turned the ball over 8 times in last week’s game, EIGHT! 7 of those turnovers came in the 1^st half.  BSU had just 6 turnovers in their 1^st 6 games this season.  Boise State was not in the running for a playoff spot and was really on the outside of even getting a Selection Committee bowl, but with that loss to Utah State, any chance they might have had is gone.

Ole Miss – For a team that has been able to take it to Alabama for 2 straight years, it is shocking to see how average they have been since that game.  The 2 road games since their win in Tuscaloosa have been a 28 point loss to Florida and an 18 point loss to a non-conference Memphis team.  Yes, Memphis is talented and very good, but no way should Ole Miss have been outscored 37-10 by the Tigers in the final 55 minutes of that game.

STILL WAITING
I know that we are half way into the season, but there are still a few teams out there that just are tough to get a good read on.  Here are a few.

Notre Dame – I have watched at least part of every Notre Dame game this season, and they are the most frustrating team for me because I have no idea how good they are.  The Irish are 6-1, and the only game where they really wowed me was the one game that they lost at Clemson.  Other than that, I feel like they have played down to their competition.  They needed a last minute Hail Mary to beat a bad Virginia team.  They were only up by 1 late in the 2^nd half over a 1-5 UMASS team before pulling away in the final 35 minutes.  They were tied with Navy until the final seconds of the 1^st half.  Even last week, they were tied at halftime and down 7 going into the 4^th quarter to a USC team that had fired their head coach 5 days earlier and was in complete shambles.  Good teams shouldn’t be in these types of situations, but Notre Dame continues to find themselves in them.  I’d like to say that ND only has 1 game remaining (@ Stanford) that is losable for them, but the way they have played to this point, every game is a game they lose.

Ohio State – FINALLY Urban Meyer played the quarterback that is best fit for his system, and for the 1^st time all season the Buckeyes looked like the defending national champions.  JT Barrett was in on 15 offensive plays in Saturday’s win over Penn State, and those 15 plays accounted for 132 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Barrett was 4 for 4 passing for 30 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he also ran 11 times for 102 yards and 2 more scores.  Meyer has always had more success with a quarterback that was a running threat, and Cardale Jones is not that.  Jones is a talented thrower, but he makes the Buckeye offense one-dimensional.  Ohio State has 3 cupcake games before ending the season with Michigan State and Michigan.  It will be interesting to see if Meyer makes the necessary switch at QB to allow this team to be a title contender.  They might be ranked #1 right now, but they aren't playing like the best team in the country and haven’t all season.

TCU – The Horned Frogs are very talented, but their defense has hurt them to this point in the season.  Sure, they are still undefeated, but at some point, TCU is going to come up against a team they can’t just outscore.  TCU is the 2^nd highest scoring team in the country, but they are also 69^th in scoring defense and 73^rd in total defense.  With teams like Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Baylor still on the schedule, the Frogs better fix that defense, or it will be a disappointing November.

Florida St. – The Noles are good, but this might be the biggest case of “who have they beat?” ever.  Take a look at the 6 teams that FSU has notched W’s against this year: Texas St, USF, BC, WF, Miami, and Louisville.  Those teams are a combined 16-21 this season and Miami is the only team with a winning record.  Dalvin Cook has been sensational for Florida State this season, when healthy, averaging 8.7 yards per carry, rushing for 955 yards and 10 touchdowns.  With the ACC lacking much power at the top, FSU will only have games at Clemson and Florida to prove how good they really are.

SURPRISING
Teams that were nowhere near anybody’s preseason Top 25, but have found themselves ranked at the halfway point of the season.

Iowa – The Hawkeyes are undefeated.  Let me say that again, the Iowa Hawkeyes are UNDEFEATED!  There are only 14 undefeated teams remaining this season, only 4 of them are 7-0 and Iowa is one of them.  Iowa had 7 wins all last season and that is with a bowl game.  Maybe even crazier than all of this is that, in all likelihood, they will be favored to win the rest of the games on their schedule.  That speaks volumes for how bad the Big Ten West is, but at the same time, a win is a win.  If a team can make it through the regular season in a Power 5 conference, you would think they would have to be considered for the CFB Playoff.

Pitt – The Panthers don’t have any great wins to this point, but they are 5-1 and 3 of those 5 wins are against teams they lost to last season.  Pitt is 3-0 in the ACC and in 1^st place in the ACC Coastal division.  They showed up at #25 in the AP Poll this week, the 1^st time they have been ranked in season since 2009.  The 5-1 start for Pat Narduzzi and the Panthers is the best start for a 1^st year head coach at Pitt since Foge Fazio started 7-0 in 1982.  He did that with the help of a little known quarterback by the name of Dan Marino.

Temple, Memphis, Houston, Toledo – 4 Group of 5 schools that are all looking to throw a wrench into the Selection Committee bowls and maybe even the CFB Playoff.  All 4 of these teams are not only undefeated, but all have at least one win over a Power 5 team already under their belts. Houston has a win at Louisville in week 2.  Memphis has that Ole Miss home win we already discussed to go along with a 32-point road win over Kansas.  Temple dominated Penn State to open the season and have another opportunity when they host Notre Dame in 2 weeks.  Toledo also has 2 such wins, at Arkansas and home over Iowa State.  This week could be key to these teams' success.  All 4 teams are in action, and all 4 will be playing on the road.

Florida – The Gators were a mess at this point last season, coming off 2 straight home losses, including a 42-13 loss to Missouri.  Fire Will Muschamp.  Enter Jim McElwain and with a lot of the same players, and Florida is now 6-1 and the clear favorite to win the SEC East.  Florida’s lone loss came this week at LSU, and that game went down to the wire, with Florida playing their back-up quarterback.  The Gators finish the season with 4 of their final 5 games inside the Sunshine State.  What a difference a coaching change can make!

DISAPPOINTING
Teams that had high expectations to begin the year, but never reached them.  This is the group for the 2015 season.

Georgia Tech – The Yellow Jackets won 5 straight games to end the 2014 regular season before taking Florida State to the wire in the ACC Championship game, then pounding a good Mississippi State team in the Orange Bowl.  Coming off that success, they were the overwhelming favorite to win the ACC Coastal division at the beginning of this season, and some even thought they could win the ACC Title.  Tech started this season 2-0 and ranked #14 in the country before losing 5 straight.  To be fair, the losses come to teams with a combined 27-4 record this season, but they are still losses.  GT was a favorite to win their conference, now they might not even be bowl eligible by the end of this season.  No worries though, it has to get easier now, right?  Nope, they get undefeated Florida State this week.

Michigan – The Wolverines could very easily be placed in the “SURPRISING” group after their 5-1 start, but after that finish to rival Michigan State, there is no other way to describe Michigan right now than “disappointing”.  We will be able to see if Michigan will fold or bounce back after such a tough loss.  3 of their final 5 games will be on the road, and 1 of the 2 home games will be against the current #1 team in the country.

USC – The Trojans were finally back at full strength after their NCAA sanctions and won 4 of their last 5 in 2014, entering this season in the preseason Top 10.  They started 2-0, but have lost 3 of 4 since, and have now fired yet another head coach.  The talent is still there, but they need to have it somehow produce on the field.  This week would be a good start when undefeated #3 Utah comes to town.