The Hire

As anticipated by many, Heather Lyke made her move today and cut ties with now former Pitt Men’s Basketball coach Kevin Stallings.  Now the pressure lays directly on her shoulders to find his replacement.  Hiring Kevin Stallings was a massive blow to the Pitt basketball program.  Firing him now was the right move but making the correct hire for his replacement is just as important if Pitt wants to get back to were they were 7 years ago, when they were the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Pitt is a good job.  Pitt is going to be one of the better jobs available this year (the NCAA/FBI thing won’t start bringing down programs for another 1-2 years, if ever).  Pitt, despite what many people say, can pay big bucks for the coach they want.  They showed that by paying big bucks to a coach they didn’t want, in buying out Stallings.  In my mind, Pitt is the 2^nd best job available this offseason, behind only Louisville.  Even with pending NCAA sanctions, Louisville has the history and the money to attract ANY coach they want.  After that, you have teams like Pitt and Mississippi and maybe Georgia (if they fire Mark Fox).  Other than that, there doesn’t look to be many major conference jobs coming open this year, which helps Pitt.

I have already given you my Coaches NOT to Hire.

Here are my Top 5 choices for the next basketball coach at Pitt.

1. DAN HURLEY – Head Coach at Rhode Island
If you haven’t read my previous RANT making a case for Hurley, here it is.  Hurley is in his 6^th year at Rhode Island and has the Rams entering the A-10 Tournament as the #1 seed and regular season champs.  Hurley will NOT be back at Rhode Island next year.  His team currently is loaded with seniors and he has basically maxed out his earning power at Rhode Island with his last contract extension.  Hurley is a proven winner, who has won at both Wagner and Rhode Island after taking them over as rebuild projects.  He is clearly the top mid-major coach this year, that is ready to take the step to the to the next level.  Louisville could also be an option for Hurley, but I think the Cardinals are going to try and make a big push for Xavier head coach Chris Mack.  If they strike out with Mack, Hurley may be their next target.

2. MICK CRONIN – Head Coach at Cincinnati
I’m going to set this at about a .5% chance of happening.  Cronin is the only name on this list that I think might choose to stay at his current job, rather than taking the Pitt job, if offered.  He is in a pretty good spot right now.  Cronin is born and raised in Cincinnati and a graduate of UC.  Cronin makes $2.2M coaching there, but I don’t think money would factor into Cronin’s decision much.  The biggest question is does he want to leave Cincinnati, his alma mater, and try his hand in the ACC?  Cronin has a great background, coaching under Bob Huggins and Rick Pitino before getting his 1^st head coaching job.   Cronin was at Murray State for 3 years before going to Cincinnati, he took Murray State to the NCAA Tournament in 2 of his 3 years there.  He is in his 12^th year at Cincinnati and has the Bearcats ready to return to the NCAA Tournament for the 8^th straight year.   Likely not going to happen, but if Lyke doesn’t give his agent a call, she isn’t doing her job.

3. MICAH SHREWSBERRY – Boston Celtics Assistant Coach
Here is your head-scratcher name, but trust me, he’s candidate and a darn good one at that.  Although Shrewsberry has never been a head coach, he has worked for some good ones.  He has spent 8 of the last 10 years working under Brad Stevens, who in my opinion is one of the best basketball minds in coaching.  He worked with Stevens for 3 years at Butler, including both years Butler made it to the National Championship Game.  Then he went to Purdue and worked with Matt Painter, where he was very instrumental in recruiting.  This year’s Purdue team, which has spent most of the year in the Top 10, is a senior laden team.  Shrewsberry is a big reason those seniors are at Purdue.  In fact, he was invited back to their Senior Night this year because of his ties to that senior class.  Shrewsberry returned to Stevens bench and is in his 5^th year with the Celtics.  He is a defensive minded coach and is credited for the development of two of the Celtics top young players, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, both lottery picks.  Shrewsberry would like to return to the college ranks and do so as a head coach.  I don’t always have inside information, but I can say with 100% certainty that Shrewsberry is interested in the Pitt job.

4. RON SANCHEZ – Assistant Coach at Virginia
Just like any assistant coach, you always look at who they have coached under to try to determine how what type of coach he might be.  Sanchez has spent the last 12 years on the bench of Tony Bennett, arguably the best defensive head coach in college basketball.  Sanchez has established some solid recruiting ties in the ACC as well, which could certainly help Pitt as they look to improve their roster.  Sanchez is one of the hot assistant coaches that will certainly have opportunities this offseason to become a head coach if he wants to make the jump.  One worry that some might have is that he has worked under just 1 coach for his professional coaching career (he did work under Mike Davis at Indiana as a Grad Assistant). 

5. THAD MATTA – Former Head Coach at Ohio State
Matta was actually on my original DO NOT HIRE list, before it was known that he is healthy and wants to get back into coaching.  He is #5 on this list simply because nobody really knows how healthy he really is.  Pitt can’t afford to hire a coach right now that only lasts 2 years before being forced back into retirement from a pre-existing condition.  Matta left Ohio State last June due to lingering foot and back issues that made it difficult for him to do his job.  In his final year at Ohio State the Buckeyes went just 17-15, it was the only time in his 17-year career as a head coach that he did not win 20 or more games.  Matta made 2 Final Fours, including 1 National Championship Game while at Ohio State.  He also won the Big Ten regular season title 5 times and won the Big Ten Tournament 4 times.  If Matta is healthy and wants to give coaching another try, Pitt should 100% call him and gauge his interest.  He has ties to Pitt AD Heather Lyke, from her time at Ohio State.  Pitt also has some similar recruiting areas to what Matta would have been used to at Ohio State. 

Pitt Panthers Mid Season Report

We are now at the mid-way point in the college football season, so I wanted to go back and take a look at the 1^st 6 games for the Pitt Panthers.

OVERVIEW:
Pitt is 5-1 for the 1^st time since the 2009 season, when the Panthers started 9-1.  Of those 5 wins for Pitt, 3 of them have come against teams that beat them last year (Akron, Virginia, Georgia Tech).  They also have wins against Youngstown State, who they lost to the last time the two teams played in Paul Chryst’s debut and Virginia Tech, who was considered to be one of the two favorites in the ACC Coastal this season (Georgia Tech the other).  Pitt has played 4 of 6 games on the road, winning 3 of them.  The Panthers only loss has come to an undefeated Iowa team on the road in a game that ended on a 57-yard field goal to give the Hawkeyes a 27-24 victory.

The Panthers are 3-0 to start conference play, something that last happened in 2010 as a member of the Big East.  Pitt still has 5 ACC games remaining on the schedule, to go with a non-conference game against Notre Dame. 

OFFENSE:
The Pitt offense suffered a major loss in the 1^st half of the 1^st game of the season when they saw the reigning ACC Offensive Player of the Year, James Conner, go down with a season ending knee injury.  They have also seen their returning starter at quarterback, Chad Voytik, get replaced by graduate transfer Nate Peterman.  The offense has not been the same without these 2 players on the field.  It currently ranks 105^th in the nation in total offense, averaging 346 yards per game.  Last year the Panthers were 40^th in the country, averaging nearly 100 more yards per game.

Peterman offers a different style of play than Voytik.  Peterman has a bigger and better arm than Voytik, but really seemed to struggle grasping the system early on, making many fans, myself included, wonder why he was the choice over Voytik.  I think the biggest problem with the offense has come in the many differences between the Peterman and Voytik.  The thing that made Voytik so good last year was his running ability.  Last year he had 2 games in which he ran for over 100 yards.  Peterman isn’t that type of player.  He is a pocket passer, which Voytik is not.  Although both quarterbacks are learning a new system under new offensive coordinator Jim Chaney, this system is a much better fit for Peterman than Voytik.  Peterman has gotten better in each of his last 3 games as quarterback, with his 3 touchdown performance against Georgia Tech on Saturday being his best game of the year.

With Conner out for the year and a new quarterback at the helm, a lot of defensives have stacked the box to take the run away, while also trying to shutdown Tyler Boyd, thus forcing Peterman and the inexperienced wide receiving corp to beat them.  To this point nobody has been able to take Boyd out of the game, as he has 41 of the teams 91 receptions, despite being suspended for the season opener.  Also, the trio of Qadree Ollison, Chris James and Darrin Hall have been just good enough at running back to keep the running threat in play.

The play of the offensive line coming into the season was a question mark due to injuries.  Since then, the Panthers have stayed somewhat healthy and the unit as a whole has performed well.  Pitt has allowed just 14 sacks in 6 games this season and have averaged just over 5 negative plays per game on the offensive side of the ball.  Considering some of the more high profile type offenses in the country like, West Virginia, Boise State and Arizona State all average nearly double that, 5 isn’t all that bad.  Nationally that ranks around 50^th out of the 127 teams in college football this season.

Basically, the offense is a work in progress.  It has been just good enough to this point in the season to produce the results necessary for this team.  This is a young and inexperienced unit that will only get better the more they play together as a group.  That is a good thing for this Panther team.

DEFENSE:
When Pat Narduzzi came to Pitt, most people figured he would bring his tough, physical and stingy defense with him, they just didn’t think it would produce so quickly.  With a lot of the same players back from last year, the defensive side of the ball has put up considerably better numbers.  The Panthers are allowing 60 yards and 5 points less per game this season.  In just 6 games, they have also already surpassed their total sack numbers from last year (19 to 22).  Pitt is ranked in the top 20 national in 1^st Downs Allowed (6^th), Passing Yards Allowed (12^th), Sacks (3^rd), Tackles for Losses (19^th), Total Defense (17^th).

Two of the players this season that have helped the defense improve are freshman safety Jordan Whitehead, who leads the team in tackles and senior defensive lineman Ejuan Price, who has been a menace in opposing backfields, leading Pitt tackles for losses and 2^nd on the team in sacks.  Whitehead, a highly touted recruit last year, has come right in and contributed immediately.  Price, has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, but finally seems healthy and playing to his potential.

The Pitt defense has been what has kept the Panthers in games this season while the offense was trying to find its footing.  That is a complete role reversal of the two units from last year, when the Pitt offense had to outscore their opponents because their defense couldn’t stop anyone.

The one area that Pitt could certainly improve at on the defensive side of the ball is in the takeaway department.  Pitt has only forced 8 turnovers this season (2 fumbles, 6 interceptions).  The Panthers only forced 14 turnovers all of last season, so they are ahead of that pace, but that is still well below the national average.

This unit has been a pleasant surprise for the Panthers this season and they have needed it to be with the offense being sluggish at times.  The defense is playing fast and aggressive and the more success they have the more confidence the players will get.  The defense has been very good this season and should get even better as the season progresses.

SPECIAL TEAMS:
The Pitt Special Teams unit hasn’t been all that special this season.  While they have had their moments of greatness, they have been just average for the most part so far.  Pitt has scored 2 touchdowns on PT this year, a kick return for a score in the opener vs Youngstown State and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown at Iowa.  In the kicking game, although Chris Blewitt made a clutch 56-yard FG to win the game against Georgia Tech, he has just been okay overall this season, going just 6 of 9 in field goals.  He has made all 21 extra points, but if you are a scholarship kicker in division 1 football, you should make all your extra points.  The punting of Ryan Winslow has been good, but not great.  He has shown the ability to place the ball and have some touch punting inside the 20, but he hasn’t done it on a consistent basis.  In the return game, Pitt hasn’t been great on returns or on kick coverage.  I guess the best way you can look at it is that they are averaging about 7 yards more per kick return than allowed and almost 3 yards more per punt.  That net yardage can add up and shift field position, which is never a bad thing.  The Panthers have blocked 3 kicks this year, which is tied for 2^nd in the nation.  That is obviously pretty good.

For me the having an excellent Special Teams unit is a bonus.  Special Teams can be a game changer for you if you do things right.  At the same time, it can cost you a game if you do things poorly.  Pitt has done just enough on special teams to impact games for a positive, while not having their special teams cost them any games.

COACHING:
Another season, another coaching staff.  That is just the way things have gone at Pitt in the past 5 years or so.  The excitement that came in with Pat Narduzzi and his staff has certainly not worn off to this point.  One of the things that Narduzzi preached early on and has continued to talk about was changing the mindset of this team.  He wanted them to expect to win and be confident.  I feel that the Panthers have done that in every game this season.  In years past, Pitt would not have been 5-1 at this point.  They have only outscored their opponents by an average of 6 points, yet are still 5-1.  That means that they are winning close games.  They are winning in the 4^th quarter.  That has historically been when Pitt decided to fold.  Not this year.  I think the coaching staff is the reason.

LOOKING FORWARD:
Pitt has 6 games left beginning this Saturday at Syracuse.  After that, the Panthers leave Heinz Field just once, a road game against Duke.  That means Pitt gets 4 of their final 5 games at home.  If Pitt can get past Syracuse this week, they will be 6-1 with 5 of those 7 games on the road.  Coming home for that final stretch could be the difference for this team.  They will get North Carolina at home in a game that should greatly impact the ACC Coastal division.  With both undefeated in ACC play, the winner will be in the driver’s seat going into the final month of the season.  They also get Notre Dame at home.  The Irish have much more talent than Pitt this season, but that hasn’t stopped the Panthers in previous years against Notre Dame.  Pitt has won 2 of the last 3 at Heinz Field between these 2 teams and each of the last 6 meeting have been decided by a touchdown or less.

In the Panthers final 6 games they have 3 games in which they should win (Syracuse, Louisville, Miami), 2 games in which could go either way (UNC, Duke) and 1 in which they will be considered an underdog (Notre Dame).  That said, we know how Pitt works, they could go 1-5 with their lone win being against ND and I don’t know if I would be surprised.  Either way, it should be a fun final 6 games.