Thursday, October 22, 2015

Pitt Panthers Mid Season Report

We are now at the mid-way point in the college football season, so I wanted to go back and take a look at the 1st 6 games for the Pitt Panthers.

OVERVIEW:
Pitt is 5-1 for the 1st time since the 2009 season, when the Panthers started 9-1.  Of those 5 wins for Pitt, 3 of them have come against teams that beat them last year (Akron, Virginia, Georgia Tech).  They also have wins against Youngstown State, who they lost to the last time the two teams played in Paul Chryst’s debut and Virginia Tech, who was considered to be one of the two favorites in the ACC Coastal this season (Georgia Tech the other).  Pitt has played 4 of 6 games on the road, winning 3 of them.  The Panthers only loss has come to an undefeated Iowa team on the road in a game that ended on a 57-yard field goal to give the Hawkeyes a 27-24 victory.

The Panthers are 3-0 to start conference play, something that last happened in 2010 as a member of the Big East.  Pitt still has 5 ACC games remaining on the schedule, to go with a non-conference game against Notre Dame. 

OFFENSE:
The Pitt offense suffered a major loss in the 1st half of the 1st game of the season when they saw the reigning ACC Offensive Player of the Year, James Conner, go down with a season ending knee injury.  They have also seen their returning starter at quarterback, Chad Voytik, get replaced by graduate transfer Nate Peterman.  The offense has not been the same without these 2 players on the field.  It currently ranks 105th in the nation in total offense, averaging 346 yards per game.  Last year the Panthers were 40th in the country, averaging nearly 100 more yards per game.

Peterman offers a different style of play than Voytik.  Peterman has a bigger and better arm than Voytik, but really seemed to struggle grasping the system early on, making many fans, myself included, wonder why he was the choice over Voytik.  I think the biggest problem with the offense has come in the many differences between the Peterman and Voytik.  The thing that made Voytik so good last year was his running ability.  Last year he had 2 games in which he ran for over 100 yards.  Peterman isn’t that type of player.  He is a pocket passer, which Voytik is not.  Although both quarterbacks are learning a new system under new offensive coordinator Jim Chaney, this system is a much better fit for Peterman than Voytik.  Peterman has gotten better in each of his last 3 games as quarterback, with his 3 touchdown performance against Georgia Tech on Saturday being his best game of the year.

With Conner out for the year and a new quarterback at the helm, a lot of defensives have stacked the box to take the run away, while also trying to shutdown Tyler Boyd, thus forcing Peterman and the inexperienced wide receiving corp to beat them.  To this point nobody has been able to take Boyd out of the game, as he has 41 of the teams 91 receptions, despite being suspended for the season opener.  Also, the trio of Qadree Ollison, Chris James and Darrin Hall have been just good enough at running back to keep the running threat in play.

The play of the offensive line coming into the season was a question mark due to injuries.  Since then, the Panthers have stayed somewhat healthy and the unit as a whole has performed well.  Pitt has allowed just 14 sacks in 6 games this season and have averaged just over 5 negative plays per game on the offensive side of the ball.  Considering some of the more high profile type offenses in the country like, West Virginia, Boise State and Arizona State all average nearly double that, 5 isn’t all that bad.  Nationally that ranks around 50th out of the 127 teams in college football this season.

Basically, the offense is a work in progress.  It has been just good enough to this point in the season to produce the results necessary for this team.  This is a young and inexperienced unit that will only get better the more they play together as a group.  That is a good thing for this Panther team.


DEFENSE:
When Pat Narduzzi came to Pitt, most people figured he would bring his tough, physical and stingy defense with him, they just didn’t think it would produce so quickly.  With a lot of the same players back from last year, the defensive side of the ball has put up considerably better numbers.  The Panthers are allowing 60 yards and 5 points less per game this season.  In just 6 games, they have also already surpassed their total sack numbers from last year (19 to 22).  Pitt is ranked in the top 20 national in 1st Downs Allowed (6th), Passing Yards Allowed (12th), Sacks (3rd), Tackles for Losses (19th), Total Defense (17th).

Two of the players this season that have helped the defense improve are freshman safety Jordan Whitehead, who leads the team in tackles and senior defensive lineman Ejuan Price, who has been a menace in opposing backfields, leading Pitt tackles for losses and 2nd on the team in sacks.  Whitehead, a highly touted recruit last year, has come right in and contributed immediately.  Price, has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, but finally seems healthy and playing to his potential.

The Pitt defense has been what has kept the Panthers in games this season while the offense was trying to find its footing.  That is a complete role reversal of the two units from last year, when the Pitt offense had to outscore their opponents because their defense couldn’t stop anyone.

The one area that Pitt could certainly improve at on the defensive side of the ball is in the takeaway department.  Pitt has only forced 8 turnovers this season (2 fumbles, 6 interceptions).  The Panthers only forced 14 turnovers all of last season, so they are ahead of that pace, but that is still well below the national average.

This unit has been a pleasant surprise for the Panthers this season and they have needed it to be with the offense being sluggish at times.  The defense is playing fast and aggressive and the more success they have the more confidence the players will get.  The defense has been very good this season and should get even better as the season progresses.

SPECIAL TEAMS:
The Pitt Special Teams unit hasn’t been all that special this season.  While they have had their moments of greatness, they have been just average for the most part so far.  Pitt has scored 2 touchdowns on PT this year, a kick return for a score in the opener vs Youngstown State and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown at Iowa.  In the kicking game, although Chris Blewitt made a clutch 56-yard FG to win the game against Georgia Tech, he has just been okay overall this season, going just 6 of 9 in field goals.  He has made all 21 extra points, but if you are a scholarship kicker in division 1 football, you should make all your extra points.  The punting of Ryan Winslow has been good, but not great.  He has shown the ability to place the ball and have some touch punting inside the 20, but he hasn’t done it on a consistent basis.  In the return game, Pitt hasn’t been great on returns or on kick coverage.  I guess the best way you can look at it is that they are averaging about 7 yards more per kick return than allowed and almost 3 yards more per punt.  That net yardage can add up and shift field position, which is never a bad thing.  The Panthers have blocked 3 kicks this year, which is tied for 2nd in the nation.  That is obviously pretty good.

For me the having an excellent Special Teams unit is a bonus.  Special Teams can be a game changer for you if you do things right.  At the same time, it can cost you a game if you do things poorly.  Pitt has done just enough on special teams to impact games for a positive, while not having their special teams cost them any games.

COACHING:
Another season, another coaching staff.  That is just the way things have gone at Pitt in the past 5 years or so.  The excitement that came in with Pat Narduzzi and his staff has certainly not worn off to this point.  One of the things that Narduzzi preached early on and has continued to talk about was changing the mindset of this team.  He wanted them to expect to win and be confident.  I feel that the Panthers have done that in every game this season.  In years past, Pitt would not have been 5-1 at this point.  They have only outscored their opponents by an average of 6 points, yet are still 5-1.  That means that they are winning close games.  They are winning in the 4th quarter.  That has historically been when Pitt decided to fold.  Not this year.  I think the coaching staff is the reason.

LOOKING FORWARD:
Pitt has 6 games left beginning this Saturday at Syracuse.  After that, the Panthers leave Heinz Field just once, a road game against Duke.  That means Pitt gets 4 of their final 5 games at home.  If Pitt can get past Syracuse this week, they will be 6-1 with 5 of those 7 games on the road.  Coming home for that final stretch could be the difference for this team.  They will get North Carolina at home in a game that should greatly impact the ACC Coastal division.  With both undefeated in ACC play, the winner will be in the driver’s seat going into the final month of the season.  They also get Notre Dame at home.  The Irish have much more talent than Pitt this season, but that hasn’t stopped the Panthers in previous years against Notre Dame.  Pitt has won 2 of the last 3 at Heinz Field between these 2 teams and each of the last 6 meeting have been decided by a touchdown or less.

In the Panthers final 6 games they have 3 games in which they should win (Syracuse, Louisville, Miami), 2 games in which could go either way (UNC, Duke) and 1 in which they will be considered an underdog (Notre Dame).  That said, we know how Pitt works, they could go 1-5 with their lone win being against ND and I don’t know if I would be surprised.  Either way, it should be a fun final 6 games.

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