Pitt Scheduling Philosophy Must Change

After Pitt was humiliated at home Saturday against Penn State, I saw a tweet that caught my attention.

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1038624820689285121

Pitt’s loss to Penn State means the Panthers have been in a conference the last 28 years & have never gone unbeaten in non-conference play

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) September 9, 2018

My 1^st instinct after reading this was to get defensive and point out that Pitt always plays a challenging non-conference schedule.  However I quickly thought about that, and asked, “why?”

Prior to the season, almost every media outlet ranked Pitt as having the toughest non-conference schedule in the country.  This year will be the 4^th straight season that they play two non-conference games against high-ranking Power 5 teams.  Again, this had me asking the simple question, “why?”

Why is Pitt scheduling like they are USC? 

Why is Pitt playing these games?

Pitt struggles enough to get bowl eligible most years, why are they challenging themselves so much in the non-conference?

Pitt needs a major adjustment to their scheduling philosophy.

Why not just schedule wins?

Look at both the 2019 & 2020 schedules.

2019
vs Delaware
vs Ohio
@ Penn State
vs Central Florida

2020
vs Miami (OH)
vs Richmond
@ Marshall
vs Notre Dame

These are the types of non-conference schedules Pitt should have every year. 

*3 home games and 1 road game.

*1 Power 5 team (or Notre Dame).

*Minimum 2 games that are almost guarantee wins.

A few years back, someone in the Pitt athletic department said that they would no longer schedule Group of 5 teams on the road.  I ask again, “why?”    If you can’t beat a MAC or C-USA team on the road, good luck in the ACC.  Plus, it is much more likely you beat those types of teams on the road as opposed to Iowa, Oklahoma State, or Penn State, all of whom Pitt have lost to in recent years.  The main goal should be winning football games.  Who cares if you play games against big-time programs if you can’t beat them?

Looking ahead at future schedules for Pitt, it should not be all that difficult to adjust the scheduling philosophy to help the program get more wins.  From 2021 to 2028 Pitt has already scheduled at least 1 Power 5 opponent (again, I am including Notre Dame in this group).  That means that Pitt should not be looking to add any more Power 5 opponents until 2029.  In some years they already have 2 games against Power 5 opponents.  The goal in those seasons is to schedule the other 2 non-conference games with the easiest possible opponent.  There is no sense in giving yourself a non-conference schedule that you could lose more games than you win.  Here are what the next 8 seasons look like as of now, with notes on how I would schedule the remaining games.

2021
@ Tennessee
With a road game and a Power 5 opponent already accounted for with this one game against Tennessee, Pitt should focus on scheduling three winnable home games.  I don’t love playing FCS teams, but I realize that it is a trend that isn’t going away any time soon, so I’d add one to the 2021 season.  With 2 spots remaining, I’d look to the MAC, AAC, C-USA or some of the lesser Independent teams for opponents.  You can typically get MAC opponents to play a road game, without a return game at their place, so that would certainly be in play for 2021.  I may also try to get a team like UMASS, Old Dominion, Charlotte, FIU or FAU to agree to a 3-game series with Pitt getting 2 home games out of the deal to just 1 road game.  All those schools, minus UMASS, are in locations in which Pitt has tried to make in-roads with recruiting.  Playing a game in those locations, is never a bad thing for recruiting.

2022
vs WVU
vs Tennessee
With two Power 5 teams already on the schedule, the remaining games should both be nearly guarantee wins.  If you play it right, the road game in 2022 will be part of the 2-1 series starting in 2021.  That would be a road game coming against a C-USA, AAC or an Independent team.  The final game would once again likely be against an FCS opponent.

2023
vs Cincinnati
@ WVU
@ Notre Dame
Only 1 game to schedule remaining for the 2023 season and it must be a home game against a very beatable opponent.  We can pencil in another FCS team for this spot.

2024
@ Cincinnati
vs WVU
With Cincinnati being on the road and WVU checking the Power 5 box, the final 2 games for 2024 should once again be winnable games at Heinz Field.  Ideally, the 3^rd game in the 3-game 2-for-1 series would be played in 2024 after taking a year off.  And yes, they 4^th would once again be an FCS opponent.

2025
@ WVU
vs Notre Dame
Once again, there are already two Power 5 games on the schedule for 2025, one of which is on the road, so the remaining games would both be home games against lesser opponents.  The options here would be a MAC team that would not require a return game (Ball State, Kent State) or possibly the start of a home-and-home series against an old Big East foe like UCONN or Temple, or trying to get another 3-game 2-for-1 series with previously mentioned teams.  And, of course an FCS opponent.

2026
@ Wisconsin
Wisconsin checks two boxes, road game and Power 5 opponent.  The remaining 3 games should all be winnable games at home.  Obviously, an FCS opponent is an easy choice.  A MAC opponent with no return game would make a lot of sense in 2026 as well.  The final game could be Home Game #2 of the 2025 2-for-1 deal or another lower level FBS school that would not require a return game (Liberty, Rice, Marshall).

2027
vs Wisconsin
The return game in the home-and home Wisconsin series gives Pitt a nice Power 5 home game and allows for a return road game in the suggested 2025 series (home-and-home w/UCONN or Temple OR the final game of the 2-for-1 deal).  Games 3 and 4 for 2027 would likely be another FCS opponent and another lesser FBS team that wouldn’t require a return game (MAC or others suggested for 2026).

2028
vs Notre Dame
With no other Power 5 teams on the future schedule after 2028, introducing another one here wouldn’t be an awful idea.  I would avoid upper-echelon teams like what we have seen recently and maybe take a step back in competition and go with teams like Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Rutgers, Cal, Oregon State.  We might still have a road return game you owe depending how 2025-27 played out, which is fine as well.  And as always, an FCS team will find a spot in this non-conference schedule as well.

With this philosophy in scheduling, Pitt fans still get to see some decent teams come to town for the non-conference each year to go along with the regular ACC foes like Miami, Virginia Tech and Syracuse.  The worst home non-conference schedule with this format would be 2021, but in that season, Pitt would get home ACC games against Clemson and Miami to offset the underwhelming non-conference schedule.

Remember, the goal is to win football games.  As a life long Pitt fan, I know I would much rather see them win 8, 9 or 10 games playing a non-conference schedule full of cupcakes as opposed to going 7-5 or 6-6 against a murderer’s row of teams in the non-conference.

GM Kevin Reitmeyer, Year 5

Now that the Pirates 11-game win streak has ended and the team (and their fanbase) has fallen back to reality, let talk about how they should approach the trade deadline.

For each of the last 4 seasons I have suggested moves for Neal Huntington to make at the MLB trade deadline.

2014:
http://thereitmeyerrant.blogspot.com/2014/07/to-trade-or-not-to-trade-that-is-neal.html

2015:
http://thereitmeyerrant.blogspot.com/2015/07/3-trades-neal-huntington-should.html

2016:
http://thereitmeyerrant.blogspot.com/2016/06/time-to-trade.html

2017:
http://thereitmeyerrant.blogspot.com/2017/05/hey-pirates-3-strikes-and-youre-out.html

http://thereitmeyerrant.blogspot.com/2017/07/general-manager-kevin-reitmeyer.html

Each of the last 4 years Huntington has ignored my suggestions and now the Pirates organization is a complete mess.  You connect the dots…

Maybe he learns in Year 5.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are close to being contenders.  They have a very nice young core, with Marte, Polanco, Bell, Moran, Diaz and Meadows in the field.  This is the core you build around.  But they need more.  They don’t need a A-ball prospect that will be good in 2022.  This team is close, but they just aren’t ready this year.  If Huntington plays his hand right however, they could be in 2019.

The Pirates should not be buyers this season.  They need to sell and the sooner the better.  The Pirates have assets.  They don’t have the typical trade deadline, rental player assets, but they have assets.  They have controllable assets.  The kinds of assets that Neal Huntington LOVES to collect, so asking him to part with these assets is an uphill battle.

The Pirates do have a few of those “rental player” types, but nothing that is going to bring back any type of real return.  Josh Harrison’s trade value peaked early last season.  Harrison not being able to stay healthy has completely drained any value he had before he demanded a trade after Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole were traded.  Francisco Cervelli now has ZERO trade value due to his concussion problem.  Those are two guys that Huntington would have been targeting as possible trade chips at the beginning of the season.  Jordy Mercer and David Freese won’t get you much except a smaller payroll.  Ivan Nova, with another year left on his contract, will get you decent return, but nothing spectacular.

That brings us to the very intriguing, controllable assets I referred to earlier, Corey Dickerson and Filipe Vazquez.

Dickerson is having one of the best years of his young career this season with the Pirates with a 318/351/517.  He is currently under contract for the remainder of the 2018 season, with 2019 being his final year of arbitration.  Dickerson will turn 30 during the 2019 season.  Huntington acquired Dickerson in a salary dump trade of Daniel Hudson, so he is already playing with house money.  Now is his chance to cash in.  You won’t get a huge return for Dickerson, but you could get some MLB ready talent.

Vazquez is the golden goose in the organization.  Just days after trading away Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole, the team announced Vazquez’s new deal and said that they would build around their young closer.  The deal that he signed was an extremely team friendly deal.  Vazquez is in Year 1 of a 4-year deal paying him a total of $22M dollars.  Mark Melancon, the player the Pirates traded to the Nationals for Vazquez, is making $20M THIS YEAR!  At just $3M this year, Vazquez is the 20^th highest paid Closer in baseball.  A player of Vazquez’s caliber, with his contract would pull multiple top-level prospects from any organization that bids for him. 

“Ugh more prospects!?!?”  I can hear the complaints now.  But again, this is where Huntington must think outside his incredible small box that he works out of and be creative.

If the Pirates were to deal Vazquez, Dickerson & Nova (the only 3 with any real value) by the end of the weekend, they would then have 2 days to flip the prospects they get in these deals for MLB level talent.

A report Thursday night from Ken Rosenthal had the Texas Rangers considering four Pirate prospects, RHP Tyler Eppers, RHP Dovydas Neverauskas, SS Kevin Newman & OF Jordan Luplow as the key piece in a deal for the current Rangers closer Keone Kela. 

Among names #Rangers are considering from #Pirates in Keone Kela discussions, per sources: RHP Tyler Eppler, OF Jordan Luplow, SS Kevin Newman, RHP Dovydas Neverauskas. All are at Triple A. Newman is team’s No. 8 prospect, per @MLBPipeline, Luplow No. 22.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 26, 2018

If I am Neal Huntington, I do it.  Do it, regardless of which of those 4 the Rangers want.  And the moment the ink is dry on that deal, call the Braves and dangle Vazquez.  The Braves closer, Arodys Vizcaino last recorded a save on June 17^th, since then he has pitched just 3 times and has landed himself on the DL.  Since June 17^th, the Braves are 11-16 and have fallen out of 1^st place.  You think they might be in the need of a closer?  Vizcaino will be heading into this final season of arbitration this year.  Acquiring Vazquez not only makes sense now, but for the future too.  Oh and did I mention that the Braves have one of the best farm systems in baseball?

According to MLB.com Prospect Watch the Braves have 8 of the Top 100 prospects in baseball.  That is 2^nd only to the San Diego Padres.  Best of all for the Pirates is that the majority of these prospects are MLB ready.  6 of those 8 prospects are pitchers, with 7 of the 8 expected to be in the Majors by the end of the 2019 season.  The Braves farm system is deep too.  It doesn’t stop at those 8 players, they have plenty of depth, especially at the pitcher position.  That means they can’t possibly keep all of them and they are likely to move them. 

After the Pirates pick through the Braves farm system for some guys that can contribute immediately for the Pirates, they then turn around and call the Tampa Bay Rays.  Chris Archer is the target here.  Archer is a guy that the Pirates have liked for a long time, but the asking price has always been too high for Huntington.  Now though, with the current Pirates farm system and the return he has gotten from Dickerson, Nova and Vazquez, Huntington finally has the prospects that the Rays would desire (and the asking price has come down since he is signed his 6-year deal in 2014).  Archer is controllable for the next 3 seasons at a total of $27.66M.  The Pirates signed Ivan Nova to a 3/$26M deal before the 2017 season, so those contracts are a wash.  The difference is that Archer is a better pitcher than Nova in almost every facet of the game, and Archer is younger than Nova.

By making these moves, you are now looking at an improved rotation that would look something like Taillon, Archer, Musgrove, Williams & Kingham/Keller (or Braves prospects) for the 2019 season.  You then can finally move Chad Kuhl to the bullpen where he belongs, joining Steven Brault and Tyler Glasnow.  If you are able to move Harrison and Mercer, you then have the ability to bring up Kevin Kramer and Kevin Newman (if not traded for Kela) to get Major League AB’s for the last 2 months of the season.  Trading Dickerson also allows Austin Meadows to truly become an everyday outfielder.

There you have it.  Sell today, win tomorrow.  I am sure Huntington will ignore me for the 5^th straight season, but at least I can say I tried.

The Hire

As anticipated by many, Heather Lyke made her move today and cut ties with now former Pitt Men’s Basketball coach Kevin Stallings.  Now the pressure lays directly on her shoulders to find his replacement.  Hiring Kevin Stallings was a massive blow to the Pitt basketball program.  Firing him now was the right move but making the correct hire for his replacement is just as important if Pitt wants to get back to were they were 7 years ago, when they were the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Pitt is a good job.  Pitt is going to be one of the better jobs available this year (the NCAA/FBI thing won’t start bringing down programs for another 1-2 years, if ever).  Pitt, despite what many people say, can pay big bucks for the coach they want.  They showed that by paying big bucks to a coach they didn’t want, in buying out Stallings.  In my mind, Pitt is the 2^nd best job available this offseason, behind only Louisville.  Even with pending NCAA sanctions, Louisville has the history and the money to attract ANY coach they want.  After that, you have teams like Pitt and Mississippi and maybe Georgia (if they fire Mark Fox).  Other than that, there doesn’t look to be many major conference jobs coming open this year, which helps Pitt.

I have already given you my Coaches NOT to Hire.

Here are my Top 5 choices for the next basketball coach at Pitt.

1. DAN HURLEY – Head Coach at Rhode Island
If you haven’t read my previous RANT making a case for Hurley, here it is.  Hurley is in his 6^th year at Rhode Island and has the Rams entering the A-10 Tournament as the #1 seed and regular season champs.  Hurley will NOT be back at Rhode Island next year.  His team currently is loaded with seniors and he has basically maxed out his earning power at Rhode Island with his last contract extension.  Hurley is a proven winner, who has won at both Wagner and Rhode Island after taking them over as rebuild projects.  He is clearly the top mid-major coach this year, that is ready to take the step to the to the next level.  Louisville could also be an option for Hurley, but I think the Cardinals are going to try and make a big push for Xavier head coach Chris Mack.  If they strike out with Mack, Hurley may be their next target.

2. MICK CRONIN – Head Coach at Cincinnati
I’m going to set this at about a .5% chance of happening.  Cronin is the only name on this list that I think might choose to stay at his current job, rather than taking the Pitt job, if offered.  He is in a pretty good spot right now.  Cronin is born and raised in Cincinnati and a graduate of UC.  Cronin makes $2.2M coaching there, but I don’t think money would factor into Cronin’s decision much.  The biggest question is does he want to leave Cincinnati, his alma mater, and try his hand in the ACC?  Cronin has a great background, coaching under Bob Huggins and Rick Pitino before getting his 1^st head coaching job.   Cronin was at Murray State for 3 years before going to Cincinnati, he took Murray State to the NCAA Tournament in 2 of his 3 years there.  He is in his 12^th year at Cincinnati and has the Bearcats ready to return to the NCAA Tournament for the 8^th straight year.   Likely not going to happen, but if Lyke doesn’t give his agent a call, she isn’t doing her job.

3. MICAH SHREWSBERRY – Boston Celtics Assistant Coach
Here is your head-scratcher name, but trust me, he’s candidate and a darn good one at that.  Although Shrewsberry has never been a head coach, he has worked for some good ones.  He has spent 8 of the last 10 years working under Brad Stevens, who in my opinion is one of the best basketball minds in coaching.  He worked with Stevens for 3 years at Butler, including both years Butler made it to the National Championship Game.  Then he went to Purdue and worked with Matt Painter, where he was very instrumental in recruiting.  This year’s Purdue team, which has spent most of the year in the Top 10, is a senior laden team.  Shrewsberry is a big reason those seniors are at Purdue.  In fact, he was invited back to their Senior Night this year because of his ties to that senior class.  Shrewsberry returned to Stevens bench and is in his 5^th year with the Celtics.  He is a defensive minded coach and is credited for the development of two of the Celtics top young players, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, both lottery picks.  Shrewsberry would like to return to the college ranks and do so as a head coach.  I don’t always have inside information, but I can say with 100% certainty that Shrewsberry is interested in the Pitt job.

4. RON SANCHEZ – Assistant Coach at Virginia
Just like any assistant coach, you always look at who they have coached under to try to determine how what type of coach he might be.  Sanchez has spent the last 12 years on the bench of Tony Bennett, arguably the best defensive head coach in college basketball.  Sanchez has established some solid recruiting ties in the ACC as well, which could certainly help Pitt as they look to improve their roster.  Sanchez is one of the hot assistant coaches that will certainly have opportunities this offseason to become a head coach if he wants to make the jump.  One worry that some might have is that he has worked under just 1 coach for his professional coaching career (he did work under Mike Davis at Indiana as a Grad Assistant). 

5. THAD MATTA – Former Head Coach at Ohio State
Matta was actually on my original DO NOT HIRE list, before it was known that he is healthy and wants to get back into coaching.  He is #5 on this list simply because nobody really knows how healthy he really is.  Pitt can’t afford to hire a coach right now that only lasts 2 years before being forced back into retirement from a pre-existing condition.  Matta left Ohio State last June due to lingering foot and back issues that made it difficult for him to do his job.  In his final year at Ohio State the Buckeyes went just 17-15, it was the only time in his 17-year career as a head coach that he did not win 20 or more games.  Matta made 2 Final Fours, including 1 National Championship Game while at Ohio State.  He also won the Big Ten regular season title 5 times and won the Big Ten Tournament 4 times.  If Matta is healthy and wants to give coaching another try, Pitt should 100% call him and gauge his interest.  He has ties to Pitt AD Heather Lyke, from her time at Ohio State.  Pitt also has some similar recruiting areas to what Matta would have been used to at Ohio State. 

Who Is Next At Pitt?

Kevin Stallings has now completed the perfect season, 0-18.  Pitt is just the 2^nd ACC school to ever accomplish this feat.  By the time we wake up tomorrow Stallings could and should be fired.  There is no sense in Athletic Director Heather Lyke delaying the inevitable any longer.  Fire Stallings now and hire the next Pitt Men’s Basketball Coach ASAP (even if it is not announced for another few weeks because the new head coach still has his team playing.)  The key however, is this hire.  After the disastrous Kevin Stallings Experiment, Chancellor Patrick Gallagher and Lyke cannot afford to miss on this hire.

Let me say once again, that I am 100% hitched to the Dan Hurley wagon.  If you missed my Rant a few weeks back making a case for him to be the replacement, here it is.

Obviously, I am not making the hire, so I am sure that others will be considered by the decision makers at Pitt as well.  If they don’t get Hurley from Rhode Island, I don’t really have anyone in particular that I would really pull for to be hired.  I like the idea of a guy like Ron Sanchez, the Associate Head Coach at Virginia under Tony Bennett.  I think Mick Cronin, at Cincinnati, might be someone to talk to and maybe gauge his interest.  Steve Forbes at ETSU was going to be a hot name, but he reportedly just agreed to an extension recently.  Who knows if that holds up.  I’m intrigued by some other names that I have heard mentioned as well, but I am going to keep those names to myself for the time being.

One thing I can say is that I know who I DON’T want Pitt to hire as their next basketball coach.  Being that this has been a hot topic between Pitt fans since roughly mid-January, I have heard tons of suggestions for the next coach.  I have seen them on Twitter, on Pitt message boards, in text conversations with friends.  Some have been good suggestions.  Others have been awful.  Those are the ones that I am going to address here.

(NOTE: I wrote this in Early-February in anticipation of Stallings being fired.  This was BEFORE the Sean Miller information came out late last week.  He was however on my original list of coaches I DID NOT want at Pitt, so I left the original comments and thoughts as to why.  What happened to him last Friday night doesn’t change anything in my mind.  Anyone that was paying close attention to the situation knew that there was another show to drop.  He was a HARD PASS for me before the news came out and he still is today.)

SEAN MILLER: This is the same Sean Miller that just 2 years was running away from this job, and the rumors of being tied to the job, as fast as humanly possible.  It ended with his dad bad mouthing Pitt and basically saying that his son would never coach at Pitt.  If that same Sean Miller, now suddenly wants the Pitt job, then his situation at Arizona with the FBI investigation is WAY worse than any of us think.  As I said before, this is a VERY important hire.  The last thing that Pitt needs is to hire a guy whose top assistant for the last 11 years was in court last week on bribery and fraud charges in connection with the ongoing FBI investigation into the NCAA.  NO THANKS!

BRANDIN KNIGHT:  Remove the name “PITT” from Brandin’s coaching resume and replace it with schools like Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Georgetown, Michigan, or Ohio State.  Would you still want Brandin Knight as the next head coach at Pitt?  I didn’t think so.  I’ll never understand why so much importance is put on whether or not someone is from Pitt (or Pittsburgh).  Being a Pitt guy really isn’t all that important.  Being able to coach and recruit is.  Nobody knew who Ben Howland was before he got to Oakland and he is the guy that turned the whole program around.  Heck, I bet most people reading this now, couldn’t tell me where Howland coached before coming to Pitt.  I know people wanted Knight to get the job when Dixon left and looking back, he probably couldn’t have done much worse than Stallings.  But if he were that good of a coach, don’t you think someone else would have scooped him up and given him a head coaching job?  Don’t you think Dixon would have at least offered him a spot on his staff at TCU?  Knight is currently at Rutgers.  And he isn’t even the top assistant there.  BY THE WAY… Ben Howland coached at Gonzaga, UC Santa Barbara and his only head coaching experience before Pitt hired him was at Northern Arizona.

KEVIN WILLARD:  If Pitt had to hire a “Pitt Guy” I’d rather have Willard over Knight, at least he has head coaching experience.  Still, hiring a Pitt guy is not important and there are much better candidates than Kevin Willard out there, even if he is a Pitt Alum.

ARCHIE MILLER:  See “SEAN MILLER” and re-read the first two sentences.

RICK PITINO:  See “SEAN MILLER” and re-read the last four sentences.

TOM CREAN:  He was a winner at Marquette, as Pitt fans know all too well.  He also took a dumpster fire at Indiana and turned it around.  In 9 years at Indiana he went to 3 Sweet 16’s and won 2 Big Ten Titles, but he also missed the NCAA Tournament completely 5 times.  Maybe most importantly though, the reason I don’t want Tom Crean is because he is an ass.  He had issues with discipling his players and keeping guys on the roster.  There is a reason that Indiana canned him last year at the first hint of a struggle.  He had the Hoosiers at #3 in the country before they fell apart, eventually losing in the 1^st Round of the NIT.

ANDY TOOLE:  I think Toole is a very good basketball coach, but he just doesn’t have the experience needed for the ACC.  He is also another guy that is only getting mentioned because he is in Pittsburgh.  He just finished 7^th in the NEC this year.  If he coached at Mount St. Mary’s or a different school in the NEC other than Robert Morris, nobody would know who he is.  I think Toole could eventually do some nice things at a bigger school, but Pitt can’t afford to take that risk right now.

THAD MATTA:  This name gets brought up a lot because of his connection to Pitt AD Heather Lyke.  He was at Ohio State when she was an assistant AD there.  Matta was very successful at Ohio State, taking them to the postseason in 11 of 13 years there, including two Final Four’s.  He retired after last season at just the age of 49 due to back injuries that made the job too difficult.  I have no idea how he is recovering or if he even wants to get back into coaching.  Due to the questions about his health, and the long-term rebuild that the Pitt program has ahead of itself, Matta doesn’t make any sense right now for the Panthers.

BEN HOWLAND:  After getting fired from UCLA, Howland has found himself rebuilding the Mississippi State program, and has them on the cusp of an NCAA Tournament appearance in just Year 3 in Starkville.  There is no doubt that he can coach, and he would certainly be embraced at Pitt if he were to return, however I have two big draw backs on bringing Howland back to Pitt.  1) He is 60 years old.  I would prefer a younger coach to take over a rebuild, because it will take time.  This isn’t just a 1 or 2 year fix sadly, it will likely take 3 or 4 years.  That’s why Pitt will probably have to offer a 6-year deal with lots of guarantees to whoever they get for the job. That would put Howland at 66.  I don’t think Pitt wants to go through this hiring process again in 5 or 6 years.  Ideally, they get someone younger, like Dixon was, who will be there for a long time, again, like Dixon was.  2) This is pure speculation, but I think Howland is dirty.  His long-standing connection with Adidas and his sudden ability to get top tier talent to play at Mississippi State scares me.  With the recent reports stemming from the FBI investigation talking about there being many, many other schools involved in the corruption case, I just don’t trust him.

Bottom line is that any coach at this point would be an upgrade over Stallings.  However, the guys listed above are not guys that could get Pitt back to prominence, like they were within the last 10 years.

MAKING A CASE FOR DAN HURLEY

The ACC Tournament will conclude exactly one month from tomorrow (March 10^th).  Pitt will likely be back in Pittsburgh by the 2^nd day of the 5-day tournament, possibly putting a cap on an embarrassing 0-19 record vs. the ACC.  Hopefully by this time next month they will have already begun the search process for their next men’s basketball head coach.  The 1^st call they should make in that process is to Dan Hurley.

To be honest, I had hoped that Hurley was a candidate for the opening at Pitt two years ago when Jaime Dixon left Pitt for TCU, but his name was never mentioned during the search.  At that point Hurley, son of one of the most successful high school basketball coaches in history, Bob, Sr. and brother to former Duke star and current Arizona State head coach Bobby, had already made a name for himself in coaching. 

Hurley got into coaching immediately after graduating from Seton Hall, where he was the Pirates starting point guard.  His 1^st job was an assistant to his father at St. Anthony’s in Jersey City, NJ.   After one season at St. Anthony’s he joined the staff at Rutgers for 4 years as an assistant.  Hurley then went back to high school and became the head coach at St. Benedict’s in Newark, NJ.  In 9 years at St. Benedict’s Hurley recorded 223 wins to just 21 losses.  St. Benedict’s finished ranked in the Top 5 nationally 4 times in those 9 years, clearly proving he was more than just Bob Hurley’s son when it came to coaching basketball.

After St. Benedict’s, Hurley took his 1^st college head coaching job at Wagner College in Staten Island.  He inherited a team at Wagner that went 5-26 the year before he arrived.  In his 2^nd year Hurley led the Seahawks to a 25-6 record, good enough for a 2^nd place finish in the NEC.  Pitt fans might remember that team, as they came to the Petersen Event Center and beat the 15^th ranked Panthers, handing Pitt their 1^st ever loss to an NEC opponent.  Hurley then found himself in charge of another rebuild the following year, after taking a step up in competition and leaving Wagner for the Atlantic-10 and Rhode Island.

The Rams were 7-24 the season prior to Hurley arriving.  After taking 2-years to rebuild the URI program, Hurley had a 23-win team playing in the NIT after a 2^nd place A-10 finish in year #3.  He is now in Year 6 at Rhode Island, where he has compiled a record of 105-77 going into tonight’s game between the two top teams in the Atlantic-10.  Over the past 4 seasons he is 83-38 leading the Rams, including a 19-3 record this year, which includes an undefeated 11-0 conference record.  

Hurley clearly has a resume that qualifies him for a promotion into a major conference.  Now the question most ask would be, “Why would he want to walk into the mess at Pitt right now?”

That is a fair question.  Here are my 4 reasons why the Pitt job makes sense for Hurley:

1) MONEY!!!  It is plain and simple.

Before we get into the money conversation, let me put an end to the myth that Pitt doesn’t have any money.  There is a big difference between being smart or even cheap with how you spend money and not having money at all.  The ACC has paid Pitt $55M over the past 2 years and another $30M or so will be coming at the end of this current school year.  Pitt has the money to attract a big coach and to buy out their current one.

Now, back to Hurley.

Hurley signed a contract extension with Rhode Island last March.  Under the new deal he is getting just about $1.1M a year, a figure that is considered to be very near the limit to the basketball budget at Rhode Island.  The details to Kevin Stallings current contract at Pitt aren’t public knowledge, but we do know that he made $2.1M at Vanderbilt in his final season and reports are that his buyout after this season, with 4 years remaining on his deal, would be around $10M.  Without knowing the exact numbers, it is pretty safe to bet that Stallings is currently making at least double the amount that Hurley is. 

2) As good as Hurley has been at Rhode Island, how long does he plan on staying there?  6 years is a long time at a mid-major when you have been as successful as he has.  Is he waiting for a bigger job to open?  Maybe, but Pitt isn’t a terrible job.  It is an ACC school, which you’d think would be a draw for a guy born and raised in the NJ/NY area.  It is a program that has had a ton of success as recently as just a few years ago.  Pitt was ranked in the Top 10 for 11 straight years from 2002 to 2012.  They were in the NCAA Tournament just 3 years ago.  This isn’t Rutgers we are talking about.  You could do a lot worse than Pitt if you were a coach looking to jump into a major conference.

3) Just looking at the coaching landscape this season, there doesn’t seem to be many jobs opening up this year in the major conferences.  As crazy as this seems, Pitt may be one of, if not the best job that becomes available.  Sure, you might have Arizona or Michigan State open depending on what comes out about the 2 different scandals that could possibly be tied to their current coaches, but I don’t think Hurley would get either of those jobs even if they became available.  UCONN might come available if they show Kevin Ollie the door.  Louisville has a decision to make regarding their interim head coach David Padgett.  St. John’s was looking like a team that might come open and would be a great fit for Hurley, but Chris Mullin has just led his team to wins over both #4 Duke and #1 Villanova in back to back games.  I think he is safe too.  After that, Pitt is the best job of the group. 

4)  Something that has been somewhat over looked by the many that have argued that Hurley wouldn’t come to Pitt is the fact that his team at Rhode Island this year is very senior heavy.  This would be his chance to strike while the iron is hot.  As mentioned before, URI is 19-3, with all 3 of those losses coming in the non-conference to teams that will be in the field of 68 next month.  4 of the 5 Rams starters this year are seniors, as is their top player off the bench.  Rhode Island is set to lose 64.5% of their minutes played this season.  They currently only have 1 underclassman that averages over 17 minutes a game.  They also lose 74.9% of their scoring including their top 4 scorers.  They are also set to lose over half (57.9%) of their rebounding from this season.  Their best on ball defender, Stanford Robinson, is also a senior.  He currently ranks 7^th in the nation in steals.  Hurley will be going through a mini rebuild next year one way or the other, why not do it at a more established program, while getting paid a LOT more money?

Dan Hurley is the guy for Pitt.  After Heather Lyke fires Kevin Stallings at roughly 4:30p (15-seed is scheduled to play at 2pm) Tuesday March 6^th, her 1^st call should be to Dan Hurley and she shouldn’t take no for an answer.

College Basketball Rant: Time For Pitt To Quit Stalling

Kevin Stallings needs to go.

There, I said it. 

Pitt AD Heather Lyke needs to rid herself of the awful hire made by her predecessor Scott Barnes. 

That being said, I can think of roughly 6 million reasons why Lyke will not fire Stallings at the end of the season, giving him a 3^rd year to further disgrace a once highly regarded basketball program.  Pitt athletics have never been one to spend extra money.  They have always been known to be rather cheap when compared to their competition, both back in the Big East and still now in the ACC.  So, the roughly $6M difference in the Stallings buyout between March of 2018 and March of 2019 seems like a pretty tall ask for the athletic department and Lyke to take on. 

However, you have to wonder how much money keeping Stallings will cost the basketball program.  Ticket sales have been awful this season at the Pete as it seems like every game sets a new all-time low attendance figure for the building.  Wednesday night, the announced attendance was 2,566, which was the lowest attended conference game in the buildings 16 seasons.  On the year, Pitt is averaging 3,885 per game.  If you factor in that 2 of the games were dominated by fans of the visiting teams (WVU and Duke) and remove those two games from the equation, Pitt is averaging 3,053 per game.  Capacity at the Petersen Event Center is 12,508, meaning that this year, on average Pitt is getting less than a quarter (24.4%) of the buildings capacity for their games.  This is the same building that as recently as 5 years ago was one of the toughest tickets to get into for a Pitt Men’s basketball game.

How much money does the athletic department have to lose from ticket sales and from donations into the program before enough is enough?

As for the product on the court, it is bad.  REALLY BAD!

When Stallings was hired, all anyone could talk about was what a great offensive mind he is and how effective and efficient his offenses are.  It seemed like coaches were going out of their way to praise him and his genius.  So, about that offense…

Pitt is now 8 games into conference play with 21 games on the season and they average 64.4 pointe per game, which ranks 336^th out of 351 in all D1.  The 68 points they scored on Wednesday against NC State was the most they had scored all season in ACC play and the most points in any game since scoring 74 vs Delaware State December 19^th.  They haven’t reached the 70-point mark in ACC play in their last 14 games.  They scored 80 against Florida State on Feb 18^th last season.  (12 of the 15 ACC teams AVERAGE more than 70 ppg this season.)

Looking at more than points per game, shines even a brighter light on just how bad the Panthers have been on offense this season.  Pitt ranks dead last in the ACC, shooting just 42.7% from the field.  They aren’t much better from the foul line or from 3-point range, ranking 12^th in the conference in both categories.  They also average 15 turnovers a game, which is the worst in the league.  Their 315 turnovers on the season is 40 more than the next closest team.  Pitt has more turnovers than assists this year, something you never saw when Jamie Dixon was coaching.  Pitt ranks last in the ACC in Assist/Turnover Ratio and ranks 299^th in the nation (out of 351 teams).

And if you want to get even more analytical, let’s look at KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ratings (points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents).  Pitt scores 98.3 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 277^th in the nation and once again dead last in the ACC.  The next closest ACC team is Georgia Tech, which averages 103 pts/100 possessions, ranking 186^th in the nation.  To put those numbers in perspective, Villanova leads the nation scoring at a rate of 128.2 pts/100 possessions.  Coppin State is last, scoring just 84.6 pts/ 100 possessions.

And remember, those stats are from a team being coached by an offensive savant.  We won’t get into the details defensively, just use your imagination for how bad they are on that side of the ball, and it is worse.

Wednesday’s game may have really pushed things over the edge for me.  Pitt, who is in danger of being only the 7^th team in the ACC 65-year history to go winless in conference play, had a chance to win their 1^st ACC game of the season.  Pitt had a 9-point lead at 66-57 with 5:54 left in the game.  The Panthers proceeded to score TWO points the rest of the game, getting outscored by NC State 15-3 in that span.  This is how the game played out for Pitt over the last 5:54…

Kene Chukwuka missed Three Point Jumper.

Kene Chukwuka Offensive foul - Turnover.

Jared Wilson-Frame missed Three Point Jumper.

Jared Wilson-Frame missed Three Point Jumper.

Jared Wilson-Frame Turnover.

Kene Chukwuka missed Jumper.

Pittsburgh Turnover.

Marcus Carr missed Three Point Jumper.

Kene Chukwuka missed Three Point Jumper.

Marcus Carr made Layup.

Marcus Carr missed Three Point Jumper.

Pitt had 11 possessions after going up by 9 with under 6 minutes to play.  They proceeded to go 0-6 from 3-point range, with ZERO offensive rebounds.  They had 3 turnovers.  They missed a 2-point jump shot and made 1 layup.  

Overall in the 2^nd half, while playing with a lead, Pitt went 0-14 from 3-point range.

PITT SHOT 14 THREE POINTERS IN THE 2^ND HALF.

PITT WAS LEADING FOR THE FIRST 17:11 OF THE SECOND HALF AND SHOT 14 3-POINTERS IN THE HALF!

A team that ranks 12^th in the conference, shooting just 32% from 3-point range, shot 14 of them in the 2^nd half of a game they were winning!

In the postgame Stallings made no comment about the bad shot selection down the stretch, instead leaves us with this, “In a stretch of disappointing games, that one was disappointing.” 

YA THINK?!?!

To top things off in his postgame presser, Stallings was asked about removing Jared Wilson-Frame from the game with Pitt down 2 with 2:15 remaining, his response “I don’t really recall.  I don’t recall.  I don’t remember even taking him out then.” 

Wilson-Frame led Pitt with 22 points in the game.  He removed the team’s leading scorer and by far their best player on the offensive end all night, after blowing a 9-point lead and didn’t even realize he did it????

The writing is on the wall.  This cannot continue.  The team is still making fundamental errors.  The team may be improving, but it is by such a small margin that it really doesn’t matter.  There are maybe 2 legit ACC-caliber players on the Pitt roster right now.  That doesn’t speak well about the future.  That doesn’t tell me that this team will be drastically better if Stallings sticks around for Year 3.