Rant Rankings 11-20-17

There is no sense ranking 20-25 teams at this point in the season, when there are only a handful that have even the slightest shot at the playoff.  In these rankings, I am only including the teams that have a chance at making the playoff, even if that chance is slight.  I am also going to breakdown what I think happens to them based on results over the final 2 weeks of the season.

These rankings are 100% based on my opinion of where this teams are RIGHT NOW.  I am not projecting how I think teams will finish the season or what I think the committee will do when they release their rankings tomorrow.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) The Tide have been the most consistent team all season, however the big knock on Alabama is that they don’t have any good wins, and that is a fair argument.  Alabama has the 45^th ranked strength of schedule this season, and worst of any Power 5 team in playoff contention.  Yes, their SOS will improve after the Iron Bowl on Saturday, but at that point it becomes a moot point.  If Alabama beats Auburn it would give them their resume building win going into the SEC Championship Game, and if they win that game they are in regardless.  However, if they lose to Auburn, I don’t think a 1-loss Alabama team gets into the playoff.  There will be too many other non conference champions with better resumes.  Saturday is a MUST WIN game for the Tide.

2. Miami Hurricanes (10-0) On paper Miami has been much more impressive than Alabama this season, but on the field the Hurricanes haven’t shown up for all 60 minutes each game (see Saturday vs UVA). Miami closes the season at Pitt, in an environment that could certainly challenge the Canes to get motivated to play in.  They have already also clinched the ACC Coastal, putting them in the ACC Championship Game vs Clemson in 2 weeks.  Miami has a good enough resume, that even with a loss against Clemson, they could still be in the playoff discussion depending on how other things break for them over the next two weeks.  A 12-1 Miami team, with only a close loss to Clemson, would be tough to keep out of the playoff.

3. Oklahoma Sooners (10-1) The Sooners clinched their spot in the Big XII Championship game with an easy win over Kansas on Saturday.  They will face TCU, who they defeated 38-20 in Norman just last week.  If OU wins out they will be in the playoff, just like Alabama and Miami ahead of them.  Even with a loss, the Sooners will remain in the discussion due to the number of impressive wins they have this season, most importantly their road smack down of possible Big Ten Champ Ohio State.

4. Clemson Tigers (10-1) Clemson has by far the best resume of any 1-loss team in the country and you could even argue the best resume of any team in the country.  Clemson has 8 wins over teams in the ESPN FPI Top 50, 2 more than any other team in the country.  They also have five wins over teams with 7 wins (could make that six with a win over South Carolina Saturday).  The only teams to have that many wins over 7-wins teams last year… Clemson and Alabama.  No team with that many wins over 7-wins teams have been left out of the playoff.  The ACC Champ will get into the playoff, but both Miami and Clemson have built good enough resumes that even with a loss in the title game, they will still be in the discussion.

5. Auburn Tigers (9-2) For Auburn it is simple, win-out and you are in.  No way does the committee leave out an SEC Champ with two wins over Georgia and one over Alabama.  A loss to either Alabama in the Iron Bowl or Georgia in the SEC Championship will eliminate the Tigers from playoff contention.

6. Georgia Bulldogs (10-1) Georgia is the only hope for the SEC to possibly get 2 SEC teams into the playoff.  Georgia beating an undefeated Alabama team in the SEC Championship game would give the committee some headaches.  Georgia can’t afford to lose another game after getting blown out last week against Auburn and dropping so far down the rankings.  They just have too much ground to make up at this point.

7. TCU Horned Frogs (9-2) TCU is in a unique spot because not only do they have a chance to win claim a conference championship by beating Oklahoma in the Big XII Title Game, but that win would also avenge one of their losses on the season.  A 2-loss conference champ with wins over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are better than anything Ohio State could show the playoff committee.

8. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-2) Ohio State is the favorite to win the Big Ten Championship at this point and if that happens, I think the Big Ten is left out of the playoff.  Ohio State wouldn’t have near the resume as others.  It will be very interesting to see how/if the committee tries to spin it to get a Big Ten team in regardless of the team.  In the past, they have said that winning a conference championship is important, but last year they had no problem leaving a 2-loss Big Ten champ out of the playoff. For a team with a better resume which included an impressive road non-conference win.  Ohio State doesn’t have that this year.  As a matter of fact, nobody in the Big Ten has that this season. 

9. Wisconsin Badgers (11-0) You can’t argue an undefeated season.  If you don’t lose, you should at least get a chance in the playoff and I think that will happen with Wisconsin.  IF WISCONSIN BEATS OHIO STATE, they will get in the playoff.  A 12-1 Wisconsin team will not.  The Badgers must beat Minnesota this week, followed by Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship to secure a playoff spot.

10. Central Florida Knights (10-0) The Catch 22 from Wisconsin… Does an undefeated Group of 5 team also deserve a chance at the playoff?  UCF has their toughest game of the season coming up this week against rival USF.  A win puts them in the AAC Championship Game against Memphis, who they have already beaten this season.  By the way, the answer is no, they won’t get into the playoff undefeated.  They will however, present a very tough challenge in a New Year’s 6 Bowl to one unlucky P5 team.

11. Washington State Cougars (9-2) The Cougars are super intriguing to me, because if my mind they have the best shot of making the playoff of any PAC 12 team.  Most (including myself) have closed the door on a PAC 12 team making the playoff, but check out the resume that Washington State has put together.  They have 5 wins over Massey Top 50 teams this season, with the chance to pick up 2 more in the next two weeks.  They already beat USC once and beat Stanford too.  They have a chance to add Washington and another USC win to that list in the next two weeks.  An 11-2 PAC 12 Champion that has 2 wins over USC as well as 1 over Washington and another over Stanford seems pretty appealing to me.  It would be better than an 11-2 Ohio State team making a playoff claim.

12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-2) As I mentioned in last week’s Weekly Rant, ND not being in a conference really hurt Notre Dame once again from making the playoff.  They play a Power 5 schedule every year, but don’t afford themselves the luxury of a loss on their schedule and certainly not two.  The interesting point this year for Notre Dame is that they will likely keep rival USC out of the playoff too.  If USC wins the PAC 12 Championship, there is no way they get selected in front of a ND team that destroyed them, therefore neither will get in.

13. USC Trojans (9-2) SEE ABOVE!!!  The only way for USC to get into the playoff is for mass chaos to ensue over the next two weekends.  Not only would enough have to happen that gives USC a clear path, but it better be enough for Notre Dame too, because as I mentioned above, USC doesn’t get in ahead of ND.

14. Stanford Cardinals (8-3) You think the Cardinal are regretting that September performance against San Diego State?  That loss gives them 3 on the season and no way do they get in with 3 losses, even if they were to beat Notre Dame next week followed by avenging their regular season loss to USC.