Tuesday, November 4, 2008

T3R Week 3

Controversy is all over the college football world and it is only the beginning. This is just the 1st week in November, wait until the first week in December. However this is one place you will not have controversy. Right here I give it to you straight. I don’t rate teams based on wins and losses. I rate teams based on their play on the field. You want to know who will play for the national Championship, go ask some computers to spit out numbers for you, but if you want to know who SHOULD play for the National Title I’m your guy. So we move on to T3R, WEEK #3:

#1 FLORIDA GATORS (7-1)
LAST WEEK: 49-10 win, vs Georgia
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th @ Vanderbilt
Let’s get the argument out of the way now. How do I put a 1-loss team ahead of the 3 major conference undefeated teams? Well, have you seen Florida play since they lost that one game? The gators have played four games. All in the SEC (which is down this year, but still clearly the 2nd best league in the nation) and have outscored their opponents 201-43. Oh yeah, and two of those games were against top 10 teams. Florida is one of only 3 teams (Penn State and USC the others) to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive points per game. This team is very dangerous and is the one team really standing in the way of Alabama, assuming they both win out and play for the SEC Title.

#2 ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (9-0)
LAST WEEK: 35-0 win vs Arkansas State
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th @ LSU
We know that these two teams won’t finish the year ranked 1-2 because they hopefully (if both win out) will be playing each other in Atlanta in the SEC Title game. I also realize that the Tide played Arkansas State, everyone plays cupcakes. I don’t like it but everyone plays them. SEC teams schedule them better then most by putting them into the middle of the conference schedule to get a breather from the week in and week out slugfest that is the SEC. They used ASU as a tune up for an absolutely HUGE game against LSU. Yes, I know that LSU is not the same LSU from the past few years, but it is the same LSU that Nick Saban left. And this is his first time back. That, mixed with Death Valley, could be just the right recipe for an upset.

#3 TEXAS TECH RED RADIERS (9-0)
LAST WEEK: 39-33 win vs Texas
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th vs #8 Oklahoma State
Wow, Tech REALLY has a defense! Tech held the high powered Colt McCoy and the Longhorns offense to 21 yards and 3 points for the first 28:23 of the game, and took a 22-6 lead into halftime. Just as they have in the past Texas battled out of an early hole and took the lead against Tech, but this time the Red Raiders didn’t give in. Heisman front-runner Graham Harrell marched his team down field and connected with Michael Crabtree for game-winning touchdown with just 1 tick left on the clock.
Now they have to do it all over again. It is easy to get fired up when the #1 team comes to your house for a big game, but can they come with the same moxie this week when they have the target on their back?

#4 TEXAS LONGHORNS (8-1)
LAST WEEK: 39-33 loss @ Texas Tech
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th vs Baylor
Wow, what a run. Beating then #1 Oklahoma, then beating #11 Missouri, then undefeated Oklahoma State. Four in a row was just too much to ask for I guess. Does anyone else feel terrible for Baylor this week? The Horns will either have no mercy against the Bears or will completely look past them after that brutal stretch and leave themselves vulnerable. Should be interesting to keep an eye on and see how they rebound.

#5 OKLAHOMA SOONERS (8-1)
LAST WEEK: 62-28 win vs Nebraska
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th @ Texas A&M
55 in the first half last week, 35 in the first quarter this week including 28 in the first 5:33, okay we know the Sooners can score (2nd in the nation in scoring offense 49.78 ppg) but can they defend when they have to? That has to be a big concern for Bob Stoops and Co. Over the last four games, all conference games, the Sooners have allowed 139 points. There are 15 teams in the country that haven’t given up 139 points all season. They better sure that up with Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and possibly Missouri (Big XII Title game) still up ahead.

#6 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (8-0)
LAST WEEK: OFF
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th @ Iowa
Penn State loses out this week because with all the excitement of Florida and Texas Tech having big wins the Lions were enjoying a much deserved off week. But as the old saying goes, out of sight, out of mind. The Lions still hold their fate in their own hands, if they run the table (which they certainly should be able to do) they play for the National Championship. If they stumble over the last three games they don’t. Everyone is looking ahead to the Michigan State game and the battle for the valued Land Grant Trophy, but Iowa is a perfect stumbling block for the Lions. It is a road game, against a not great, but certainly not bad team that controls the ball and clock. How do you slow down a high-powered offense like Penn State has? Keep them off the field. Iowa tends to win the time of possession battle and boasts Shonn Greene, the nations 3rd leading rusher. Penn State should win this, but Iowa won’t roll over ease for them.

#7 SOUTHERN CAL TROJANS (7-1)
LAST WEEK: 56-0 win vs Washington
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th vs #20 California
Bar none the best defense in the nation. USC has outscored its opponents 214-20 in the five games since getting upset by Oregon State pitching shutouts in three of those games. The Trojans rank #1 in points allowed, points allowed per game, total yards allowed, and passing yards allowed. They slack off a bit when it comes to stopping the run; they are only the 5th best team in the nation in that category. By no means do I think they deserve a chance of getting back into the National Title chase, but numbers like that don’t lie, that defense is great! The offense, it is coming together but still has lots of work to do.

#8 OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (8-1)
LAST WEEK: 59-14 win vs Iowa State
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th @ #3 Texas Tech
Oklahoma State is a strange one for me because they put up points just like all the other teams in the Big XII, but their offensive production consists of basically 3 players. QB Zac Robinson is 2nd in the nation in passing efficiency while throwing 20 TD’s and just 5 INT’s. His main target on most of those touchdowns is WR Dez Bryant who is 2nd in the nation in receiving yards per game and leads the nation with 17 TD’s. The guy who keeps this offense balanced is RB Kendall Hunter. He is the nations 4th leading rusher. Seems like it would be easy to shut down 1 WR and 1 RB, apparently it is tougher then it seems. All this with a very average defense that seems to make big plays at just the right time to keep them in games.

#9 UTAH UTES (9-0)
LAST WEEK: 13-10 win @ New Mexico
NEXT WEEK: Nov 6th vs #10 TCU
Utah doesn’t do anything special. They do nothing great, but they do EVERYTHING well. Utah is in the nations top half of every one of the NCAA listed statistics, but only in the top 10 of two of them. The one key thing they have done and continue to do is win football games. They face their toughest test over the last three games of the year starting with this Thursday against TCU. A win against TCU puts them in the drivers seat to getting their second BCS bowl bid with only archrival BYU standing in their way. The Utes however do get both at home, in what has become a very big home field advantage for them.

#10 TCU HORNED FROGS (9-1)
LAST WEEK: 44-14 win @ UNLV
NEXT WEEK: Nov 6th @ #9 Utah
TCU has one loss is still in the talks about a BCS bowl, that is very impressive coming from a mid-major conference team. The Horned Frogs only set back this year was to Oklahoma in Norman. They have rolled through the rest of the competition and it has all started with the defense. TCU has allowed no more then 14 points in a game this year in their 9 wins. The Frogs have already beaten half of the other big two from the Mountain West when the easily handled BYU 32-7 in mid-October. This week is the end all for TCU win at Utah and you are all but in a BCS bowl. Lose and well, you get pretty much any other bowl.

#11 MISSOURI TIGERS (7-2)
LAST WEEK: 31-28 win @ Baylor
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th vs Kansas State

#12 BOISE STATE BRONCOS (8-0)
LAST WEEK: 49-0 win @ New Mexico State
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th vs Utah State

#13 GEORGIA BULLDOGS (7-2)
LAST WEEK: 49-10 loss vs Florida
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th @ Kentucky

#14 the OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY BUCKEYES (7-2)
LAST WEEK: OFF
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th @ Northwestern

#15 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (8-2)
LAST WEEK: 25-24 win vs Wisconsin
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th vs Purdue

#16 WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (6-2)
LAST WEEK: 35-13 win @ Connecticut
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th vs Cincinnati

#17 GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS (7-2)
LAST WEEK: 31-28 win vs Florida State
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th @ #18 North Carolina

#18 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (6-2)
LAST WEEK: OFF
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th vs #17 Georgia Tech

#19 BALL STATE CARDINALS (8-0)
LAST WEEK: OFFNEXT WEEK: Nov 5th vs Northern Illinois


#20 CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (7-2)
LAST WEEK: 26-16 win vs Oregon
NEXT WEEK: Nov 8th @ #7 Southern Cal

No comments: