Thursday, October 29, 2009

T3R WEEK 1

Here we are at the mid-point of the college football season, what better time to start up this season’s version of the T3R. Of course it is not really the mid-point in the season, but it is the Pitt bye week, so in my Pitt mindset it is the mid-point so let’s just roll with it.

As always this is not me forecasting what will be or how I think the national rankings should be. It is simply my opinion of which teams are playing the best right now!

#1 TEXAS LONGHORNS (7-0, 4-0)
LAST WEEK: 41-7 win @ Missouri
NEXT GAME: Sat @ #13 Oklahoma State
Texas has beaten its opponents by an average of over four TD’s this season and has had only one game decided by single digits. The strange thing with this Texas team is that it has done it with defense. While Colt McCoy has been struggling (by his standards and expectations) the Texas D has been lights out. They rank #2 in Total Defense nationally, trailing only Florida. They also rank #1 nationally against the run.

#2 ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (8-0, 5-0)
LAST WEEK:
12-10 win vs Tennessee
NEXT GAME: Nov 7th vs #10 LSU
Alabama gets a slight nod over Florida for the #2 spot simply because of their body of work thus far this season. The Bama defense has been downright dominant at times this season. The Tide ranks in the top 5 nationally in every major defensive category, rushing (2), passing (2), scoring (4) and total defense (4). They have also held five of their last six opponents to 10 points or less, five of which were SEC foes. The one problem that Bama does have is its offense, specifically the passing game. Greg McElroy has been held under 150 yards passing the past four games and threw just two TD’s in that time, while also throwing two INT’s. The lone bright spot for the Bama offense is Mark Ingram, who is a Heisman contender with over 1,000 yards on the ground so far this season.

#3 FLORIDA GATORS (7-0, 5-0)
LAST WEEK:
29-19 win @ Mississippi State
NEXT GAME: Sat vs Georgia
Has anyone seen Tim Tebow since ESPN continued to replay him yakking into a plastic bag while getting carted off the field after getting a concussion against Kentucky? Talk about ordinary numbers since that hit, how about, two TD passes for Florida since then and two TD passes to the other guys. Urban Meyer has made a name by being an offensive genius yet his defense is completely carrying the team so far this season. And that is with arguably the best QB in college football history under center (or in shotgun in Tebow’s case). Is the book finally out on Meyer and his offense? I do expect the Gators to win out and go into the National Title Game undefeated, but they better get their act together or someone in the SEC will pick them off.

#4 TCU HORNED FROGS (7-0, 3-0)
LAST WEEK:
38-7 win @ BYU
NEXT GAME: Sat vs UNLV
Notice the theme in the top three teams so far is defense. It goes back to that old adage that defense wins championships. TCU also fits into that category. The Horned Frogs don’t play in a top level conference, but they already have as many impressive wins as any team in the nation. TCU has road wins vs Clemson, Virginia and BYU and they have done it with defense all season. TCU has jumped out to early leads all season and has allowed just 9 1st quarter points so far this season.

#5 CINCINNATI BEARCATS (7-0, 3-0)
LAST WEEK: 41-10 win vs Louisville
NEXT GAME: Sat @ Syracuse
Cincinnati had to replace 10 of 11 starters on defense from last year’s Orange Bowl team, so they have had to count on their offense to carry them this season. So far it has not disappointed. The Bearcats are #2 nationally in scoring at just over 40 ppg. Cincy has outscored its opponents by an average of 27 a game so far. The problem with Cincinnati is that they don’t have a landmark type win yet. Their two biggest wins are road wins against South Florida and Oregon State. Their two biggest games on the schedule are still in front of them with WVU at home and at Pitt.

#6 SOUTHERN CAL TROJANS (6-1, 3-1)
LAST WEEK:
42-36 win vs Oregon State
NEXT GAME: Sat @ #8 Oregon
Right as the offense finally starts to pick up its play the defense falls off the face of the earth. The defense has allowed 27 or more points in consecutive games which is unheard of for a Pete Carroll led defense. The last time that happened was in Carroll’s 3rd year at USC in 2003. The defense better get its act together this week or SC will find itself in a tough position to defend its PAC-10 title, something they haven’t lost since 2001. Southern Cal has not won in the state of Oregon since 2005.

#7 IOWA HAWKEYES (8-0, 4-0)
LAST WEEK:
15-13 win @ Michigan State
NEXT GAME: Sat vs Indiana
Iowa finds itself in a unique position. They are undefeated and have won in Happy Valley, Madison and East Lansing yet still are not getting much respect. They have one more chance to make a splash and get some national love when they travel to Columbus to take on tOSU in three weeks. I think the biggest reason that Iowa has struggled to get the national attention is a mix between two things. First, the Big Ten is flat out bad this year. Number two is that Iowa hasn’t won any game impressively except beating Penn State. A 1-point win against Northern Iowa, a 3-point win against Arkansas State, and a 2-point win versus Michigan all at home is not exactly the best way to mark your presence as a national power.

#8 OREGON DUCKS (6-1, 4-0)
LAST WEEK: 43-19 win @ Washington
NEXT GAME: Sat vs #6 Southern Cal
After the debacle in Boise to open the season the Ducks have been very impressive. OU has outscored its Pac-10 foes by an average of 40-10 in their four conference games so far this season and now get a struggling USC defense coming to Autzen Stadium this Saturday. A win Saturday gives the Ducks a two game lead in the Pac-10 over USC with just four games to play.

#9 GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS (7-1, 5-1)
LAST WEEK:
34-9 win @ Virginia
NEXT GAME: Sat @ Vanderbilt
Remember when everyone said that hiring Paul Johnson from Navy was a bad move because the triple option offense would never work at a BCS level school? Do you think Johnson is laughing at that thought yet? Johnson has the best team in the ACC running up and down the field on pretty much everyone put in his way. With only Wake Forest and Duke remaining on their ACC schedule and a 1½ game lead over Virginia Tech, GT is in line to win the Coastal Division and head to Tampa for the conference championship game.

#10 LSU TIGERS (6-1, 4-1)
LAST WEEK:
31-10 win vs Auburn
NEXT GAME: Sat vs Tulane
LSU is an intriguing team this year because eight weeks into the season and they still don’t have an identity yet. At this point they have won the games they were expected to and lost to Florida, as expected, but they have looked better then expected in nearly every game so far this year. The Tigers control their own destiny in the SEC West, but have a difficult stretch on their schedule still in front of them starting with going to Alabama next week.

#11 BOISE STATE BRONCOS (7-0, 2-0)
LAST WEEK:
54-9 win @ Hawaii
NEXT GAME: Sat vs San Jose State
Boise State is this years Utah, but they don’t have the resume that Utah had last year. If Boise State wants to be in BCS Championship talks they need to improve their non-conference schedule. Yes they played Oregon this year and won handily, but also scheduling UC Davis, Bowling Green, Miami OH, and Tulsa doesn’t help. The fact is Boise State is a hyped up team with nothing really behind the hype.

#12 VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (5-2, 3-1)
LAST WEEK:
OFF
NEXT GAME: Tonight vs North Carolina
The Hokies two loses were a 5-point loss at Georgia Tech and an opening game loss to Alabama. They also have wins versus then-ranked Nebraska and Miami under their belt already. After tonight’s home game against UNC the Hokies are on the road for 3 of their last 4 games.

#13 OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (6-1, 3-0)
LAST WEEK:
34-7 win @ Baylor
NEXT GAME: Sat vs #1 Texas
OK State has not missed a beat on offense despite playing without their top weapon, Dez Bryant, during an ongoing NCAA investigation. The Cowboys have been over 30 points in every game but the opener, a game they beat Georgia 24-10. The first three games on their conference schedule were lesser opponents; the final stretch starting this week with Texas will be a challenge to a Dez Bryant-less offense.

#14 PITT PANTHERS (7-1, 4-0)
LAST WEEK:
41-14 win vs South Florida
NEXT GAME: Nov 7th vs Syracuse
Pitt is a monumental 4th quarter collapse versus NC State away from being undefeated right now. The Panthers had some struggles defensively early in the year, but have vastly improved since halftime of the Louisville game four weeks ago. The toughest part of the schedule is still ahead of Pitt, but three of their final four are at home.

#15 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (7-1, 3-1)
LAST WEEK:
35-10 win @ Michigan
NEXT GAME: Sat @ Northwestern
The same two problems that hurt Iowa also hurt Penn State. Penn State, while 7-1, has yet to impress and play a complete game this season. The defense is very good, as is expected with any Tom Bradley run squad, but the offense hasn’t done much at all this year. I think everyone in the Big Ten knows that the Lions have the potential on offense, but unfortunately they just haven’t showed it yet.

#16 SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (6-2, 3-2)
LAST WEEK:
14-10 win vs Vanderbilt
NEXT GAME: Sat @ Tennessee
Finally Steve Spurrier, the offensive guru, has a legit offense to go with his stingy defense. Oddly enough the Gamecocks defense has been way ahead of the offense pretty much every year since Spurrier took the reigns in Columbia. This offense will never be confused with some of his Florida teams, but the old ball coach finally has some balance and the playmakers to win some games.

#17 ARIZONA WILDCATS (5-2, 3-1)
LAST WEEK:
27-13 win vs UCLA
NEXT GAME: Nov 7th vs Washington State
Suddenly that loss at Iowa doesn’t look so bad anymore, especially when you follow it up with wins at Oregon State and home versus Stanford. Mike Stoops FINALLY seems to be living up to the high expectations that he brought with him six years ago when he took over the Arizona job.

#18 the OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY BUCKEYES (6-2, 4-1)
LAST WEEK:
38-7 win vs Minnesota
NEXT GAME: Sat vs New Mexico State
Note to the sweater, use this week’s virtual bye versus NMST to implement a new offense to best use Terrelle Pryor. I realize he is not the QB you thought he would be, so let him run. When Vince Young played at Texas, nobody was scared of him throwing the ball; they were terrified he would run it. That could be the same with TP, but you are forcing him to throw it, taking away his most dangerous weapon, his legs.

#19 HOUSTON COUGARS (6-1, 2-1)
LAST WEEK:
38-15 win vs SMU
NEXT GAME: Sat vs Southern Miss
How does a team go on the road and beat a then-fifth ranked Oklahoma State, follow that by beating Texas Tech, and the get bombed by UTEP? Houston had BCS written all over it after the first two wins, then threw it all down the drain with that pathetic performance in El-Paso.

#20 MIAMI HURRICANES (5-2, 2-2)
LAST WEEK: 40-37 OT loss vs Clemson
NEXT GAME: Sat at Wake Forest
The Canes made a pretty big splash by playing their first four games of the season against ranked team. They made an even bigger splash by winning three of those four games. Since that point they have been rather disappointing. They have four very winnable games remaining on the schedule in conference play, but will have to hope Georgia Tech stumbles for them to get into the conference championship game.

1 comment:

JoPa said...

Who is this Pitt Team that the Rant ranked ahead of me? There are no college football teams in Western PA. Didn't the Governor get my memo about that? I ordered them disbanded in 2000.

12-0! (The only sound better than 13-9)