Friday, November 10, 2017

College Football Weekly Rant - Week 11

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT

THE BIG preTENd…

Two weekends ago we watched one of the most entertaining and exciting football games of the season in Columbus, when Ohio State hosted #2 Penn State.  The winner would have the easy path to the Big Ten Championship out of the East division and be sitting pretty to be selected into the CFB Playoff.  Fast forward one week later and both teams are licking their wounds after being upset on the road, giving both their 2nd loss of the season and likely ending any hope either had at making the playoff.  Not only do those losses likely eliminate both Penn State and Ohio State from playoff contention, but it puts a big question mark on their entire conferences chances of making the playoff.

Wisconsin now has the best chance of making the playoff from the Big Ten and that is simply because they are undefeated.  However, strength of schedule (or lack of strength in their schedule) has hurt the Badgers through the first two CFB Playoff Rankings.  The Badgers were ranked 9th in the 1st ranking and only moved up 1 spot this week after 2 teams in front of them lost.  In fact, they were jumped by fellow unbeaten Miami.  The only other hopes for the Big Ten sit ranked 12-13-14, Michigan State, Ohio State & Penn State respectively.  All three of those teams sit with 2-losses and if they were to make the playoff, would become the first ever 2-loss team to make it.  The fact that there are two other 2-loss teams in front of that group make it even less likely.  This week either Ohio State or Michigan State will get tehri 3rd loss on the season as they face-off with each other in Columbus. 

The question now becomes, would the committee leave out an undefeated team from the Big Ten in favor of a 1-loss teams, some of which may not even claim a conference championship (Notre Dame, SEC runner-up)?  With the committee ranking a 6-3 Iowa team this week, Wisconsin will get there 1st chance to play a ranked opponent this season.  The downfall for the Badgers is that if they beat Iowa, the Hawkeyes won’t likely be ranked anymore, leaving the Badgers, once again, with ZERO wins over ranked opponents.  The final two opponents in the regular season for Wisconsin are also not ranked, meaning that their only chance to get a win over a ranked team will likely be in the Big Ten Championship Game.  Would one win over a ranked team give Wisconsin the resume needed to crack the Top 4 and get selected into the CFB Playoff?

Only time will tell…

WHAT I LEARNED IN WEEK TEN

*Offense Is Fun, But Defense Is Good Too.  62-52 was the final score of the 2017 edition of Bedlam between rivals Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.  Is that good for football?  Is that fun to watch?  Don’t get me wrong, I love seeing these dynamic offenses when they are clicking, but I also want to see a defensive stop occasionally.  Both teams are good enough offensively to compete with any team in the nation, but to win a National Championship, you have to play defense.  Until one of these teams does that, I think they should remain outside the Top 4 in the rankings.
*The U Has Their Swag Back.  I have been a huge critic of Miami all season because they have seemed to do just enough to win games.  On Saturday, in primetime, against rival Virginia Tech, the Hurricanes dominated.  Virginia Tech entered the game 7-1 and ranked 13th in the nation, they left scoring a season low 10 points on just 299 yards of offense, while turning the ball over to the Miami defense 4 times.  In the win the Canes also clinched their 1st division championship since joining the ACC.  Miami jumped to #7 in the rankings this week, deservingly so.  They will have more chances to climb in the upcoming weeks with games vs Notre Dame and an ACC Championship game, possibly against Clemson, still on the schedule.

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK ELEVEN

*Letting The Rankings Sort Themselves Out.  There are three matchups this week between Top 10 teams in the most recent CFB Playoff Rankings.  All of which will impact next week’s rankings considerably.  #1 Georgia @ #10 Auburn (3:30, CBS) gives Georgia a chance to cement their claim on a playoff spot, even if they were to lose Alabama in the SEC Championship.  It would give the Bulldogs their 2nd road win over a Top 10 team.  For Auburn, it gives them a chance to throw a wrench into the SEC race.  A win over Georgia this week, makes the Iron Bowl a winner-take-all game for the SEC West Title.  Winning both of those games would give Auburn a legit shot to become the 1st 2-loss team to make the CFB Playoff. #3 Notre Dame @ #7 Miami (8pm, ABC) This is a must-win game for Notre Dame as they try to make it into the playoff without having a conference tie-in.  The Irish can’t afford a 2nd loss, even if it is on the road to a Top 10 team.  Miami could probably afford a loss since it is not an ACC game and it would be their 1st of the year, but they would then need to run the table, including a win over Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, to have a chance at the 4-team playoff.  #6 TCU @ #5 Oklahoma (8pm, FOX) This match-up is what the Big XII would have been hoping for in the Big XII Championship Game in 3 weeks, not now.  Now it all but eliminates the loser from playoff contention, whereas the winner might also have to win a re-match game in the conference championship to get in to the playoff.     
*Bounce Back games.  With teams like Ohio State, NC State, Penn State, and Oklahoma State all losing last week, it will be interesting to see which teams roll up sleeves and man-up this week and which teams fold up their tent on the season.  All 4 have chances to still win their division and get to their conference championship game, but they can’t afford any more stumbles along the way.


COACHING WATCH
WARM SEAT:
Gus Malzahn (Auburn) – The head coach of the 7-2, 10th ranked Auburn Tigers is safe.  The coach of the 8-4 Auburn Tigers could find himself very much on the hot seat.  That reality is very possible as Auburn still has games versus’ the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the nation.  A loss to Alabama would also be his 4th straight Iron Bowl loss, which would certainly not sit well with the Auburn boosters and fan base.
HOT SEAT:
Barry Odom (Missouri) – The only reason Odom is on this list is because Missouri plays in the SEC now.  If this were 7-10 years ago and the Tigers were in the Big XII still, no way is he on this list, but expectations in the SEC are different.  Odom now has the Tigers at 4-5 in Year 2 and even possibly going to a bowl.  His job seems safe, but again, life in the SEC is a completely different animal, so who knows?
SEAT ON FIRE(D):
Bret Bielema (Arkansas) – Arkansas needs a rather crazy 4th quarter comeback to beat a 1-8 Coastal Carolina team last week.  Think about that for a minute.  Sitting at 1-4 in the SEC, with the next two coming against ranked teams in rival LSU, and Mississippi State, there is a distinct possibility that Bielema doesn’t make it to the season finale against Missouri. 
Butch Jones (Tennessee) – Winless in the SEC at 0-5 and now their top-rated recruit, a Knoxville kid nonetheless, decommits from the Vols.  Can it get any worse for Tennessee?  I don’t understand why they just haven’t pulled the plug on this season yet.  Maybe even more comical than this season has been are the Vols fans that seem to think their program will attract top candidates like Jon Gruden to replace Jones.
Jim Mora, Jr. (UCLA) – With an NFL caliber QB healthy and under center, this was the year that Bruin fans thought UCLA might be back competing at the top of the PAC 12 South.  Instead, they are a half a game out of the basement in the PAC 12 South with 3 very loseable games remaining on the schedule.
Mike Riley (Nebraska) – Nebraska has been to 9 straight bowl games, but that streak is in jeopardy as the Cornhuskers are just 4-5 with a road games at Minnesota and Penn State before closing the season at home vs Iowa.  It has been pretty well known that Riley would not be back since Week 3 when Nebraska lost to Northern Illinois and the school’s AD was fired for not firing Riley.  Being a middle of the Big Ten West type team is certainly not good enough for Husker fans. 
Lovie Smith (Illinois) – Smith is only in Year 2 at Illinois, but this experiment is not going well.  Illinois, which plays in the considerably easier side of the Big Ten, has not won a game since September 9th.  They have also been outscored on average 31-14 in their 6 Big Ten games this season, all losses.  And that is without playing Ohio State or Penn State, the two highest scoring teams in the conference.  This week they play Indiana, which seems like their only chance at salvaging a Big Ten win this season.  Indiana is also 0-6 in the Big Ten.
Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M) – After two straight bad losses, the Kevin Sumlin Era at Texas A&M is as good as over.  Currently sitting at 5-4 overall and just 3-3 in the SEC, the Aggies are assured of a 5th straight season not reaching double-digits wins in Sumlin’s 6th year on the job.

PLAYOFF PICKS
I have now started to release my Rant Rankings the day prior to the CFB Playoff selection releasing their updated rankings.  Be sure to check that out.

That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote-control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!

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