Friday, September 8, 2017

College Football Weekly Rant - Week 2

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT

One week of the college football season in the books, and it did not disappoint.

Have I mentioned how much I love teams going out and challenging themselves in the non-conference?  In the Opening Week of the season we had neutral site games between Alabama and Florida State, Michigan and Florida, West Virginia and Virginia Tech as well as Tennessee and Georgia Tech.  We were also treated to Maryland at Texas and Texas A&M in the Rose Bowl against UCLA in other Power 5 match-ups to open the season.   The fun part about those games is that none of them disappointed.  Maybe the competitiveness of the games may not have been what everyone hoped for in some of them, but all of them helped us learn a little more about the teams involved and give us a better forecast of what we might be able to expect from them this season.

The big game last week was obviously #1 Alabama vs # Florida State.  The final score, 24-7, was not as telling as one would think.  Alabama dominated in one aspect of the game, Special Teams, and that was the difference.  Both defenses dominated for stretches, long stretches as a matter of fact.  Both offenses struggled to get the ball to their play makers in space.  As for Special Teams, Alabama blocked a punt and a FG, Florida State also fumbled a kickoff.  All 3 of those plays made a difference on the scoreboard.  The blocked FG just before the end of the 1st half, allowed the Crimson Tide to hold a 10-7 lead at the break.  The blocked punt in the 3rd quarter led to 3 more points for Alabama.  FSU then fumbled the ensuing kickoff, which Bama turned into 8 (touchdown + 2pt conversion) 1 play later.  Late in the game came the blow that most people are taking away from the game, when FSU QB Deondre Francois was sacked from behind injuring his knee.  After the game, it was discovered that Francois would be out the rest of the year with an MCL tear in that knee.

Not to kick a man when he is down, but I don’t see this as big of a loss as others appear to, simply because I have never been a huge fan of Francois.  This Florida State team was built around a fierce defense and a safe QB.  That can still be the recipe for the Noles success behind freshman QB James Blackman, who probably has a higher ceiling than Francois when you really break it down.  Getting reps in this week vs LA-Monroe would have been nice for Blackman, but that game has been cancelled due to Hurricane Irma.  Blackman will now get his 1st career start again rival Miami in Week 3. 

As for Alabama, they are good.  Shocking, I know!  However, I’ll stay off the hype train for at least a few weeks more.  The Alabama offense was very unimpressive against Florida State.  Yes, that could possibly be the best defense that Bama faces this year, but I still expected more growth from QB Jalen Hurts between his freshman and sophomore years.  Hurts completed just 10 passes in the game for 96 yards, 53 of which came on 1 play. 
Alabama’s five scoring drives looked like this:
9 plays, 44 yards = FG
5 plays, 85 yards = 53-yard TD pass
4 plays, -1 yard = FG
1 play, 11 yards = TD
6 plays, 16 yards = FG
Not all that impressive.  Alabama is good, but the offense needs to be much better if they want to be great.

WHAT ELSE I LEARNED IN WEEK ONE

*Michigan is in reload mode, not rebuild:  The Wolverine defense looked big and fast against the over-matched Gators.  The offense is still a work in progress, but with nearly 6 weeks before their next big challenge (at Penn State) the young team will have plenty of time to grow.
*Speaking of that Florida offense, it stinks:  The Gators had a 3-man QB race in camp and apparently still have no QB’s.  Could be another long season for the Jim McElwain and the Gators.
*The Big Ten East had a nice opening weekend:  Maryland was the surprise contributor there, with a 51-41 win over Texas, ruining the debut of new Longhorn Head Coach Tom Herman.  Rutgers didn’t look awful against Pac-12 North favorite Washington.  Indiana show signs of promise in their loss to Ohio State.  Michigan State and Penn State each won easily over their MAC opponents.
*Let's not hand the Heisman Trophy over to Sam Darnold just yet:  Darnold spent Week 1 doing his best impression of other recent USC QB after being thrown into the spotlight, Darnold opened the season throwing 2 INT’s and zero touchdowns in the Trojans win over Western Michigan. 
*West Virginia is going to score points this season:  They only scored 24 in their opening loss to Virginia Tech, but they put up over 600 yards of offense, which doesn’t happen every day against a Bud Foster led defense.  That point total is sure to go up once they get into conference play.
*Welcome to the spotlight Josh Jackson and TaQuon Marshall:  Jackson the freshman QB from Virginia Tech had 336 yards of offense in the game (235 and 1 TD passing, 101 and 1 TD running).  Marshall a junior QB for Georgia Tech accounted for 369 yards of offense including 249 and 5 touchdowns on the ground.  These two dynamic QB’s should make the wide-open ACC Coastal division even more interesting.
*UCLA is awful and Texas A&M is great:  In the 1st half of football games.
*Texas A&M is awful and UCLA is great:  In the 2nd half of football games.

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK TWO

*More big non-conference games:  After the opening weekend games that I mentioned earlier, it doesn’t slow down this week.  We get even more Power 5 vs Power 5 games this week.  The Primetime Line-Up is outstanding, with 3 games featuring Top 25 matchups.  Auburn @ Clemson (7pm, ESPN), Oklahoma @ Ohio State (7:30, ABC), Georgia @ Notre Dame (7:30, NBC).  The afternoon slate isn’t as good, but still some fun games.  Pitt @ Penn State, Iowa @ Iowa State, Northwestern @ Duke (The Education Bowl), TCU @ Arkansas, Indiana @ Virginia, Nebraska @ Oregon.
*A big non-conference game too:  Although the ACC gets underway with Louisville @ UNC and Wake Forest @ Boston College, the conference opener sure to have everyone’s attention is Stanford @ USC.  Two of the favorites in the PAC-12 face off in Week 2.  Earlier enough in the season for the loser to rebound, but the winner immediately becomes the conference favorite.  USC struggled stopping the Western Michigan running attack last week.  Stanford wins with defense and running the ball. 
*Great late night watching this Saturday:  Not to single out just those late west coast starts, because there really are good games up and down the schedule this week starting at noon all the way through the final game (San Diego State @ Arizona State, 11pm kickoff), but I always enjoy getting my last fix of college football in with good games.  This week we get some off the radar good matchups.  After the primetime schedule that will test the batteries on your remote control, we have five outstanding late night games kicking off after 10pm EST.  Minnesota @ Oregon State (10pm FS1), The Holy War between BYU and Utah (10:15, ESPN2), Boise State @ Washington State (10:30, ESPN), Houston @ Arizona (10:30, ESPNU) and the aforementioned SDSU/ASU game which is on the PAC12 Network.

A GAMBLING EYE
*Cincinnati (+35) @ Michigan – This might seem crazy but, I don’t think 35 is enough points.  Cincinnati struggled offensively against Austin Peay in their opener, my guess is that Michigan will be slightly tougher than AP.  You also must consider the Asshole Factor involved when giving up this many point, and Jim Harbaugh scores through the roof in that category.  Harbaugh has never shied away from running up the score, and this one would be against long-time Ohio State assistant Luke Fickell in his 1st year at Cincinnati.
*Louisville (-10) @ North Carolina – Something seems off on this line.  North Carolina just lost to a putrid Cal team at home last week, now they are facing the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in Lamar Jackson who accounted for nearly 500 yards by himself last week.  On the scoreboard Louisville let Purdue hang around last week, but the Cardinals also fumbled twice inside the Purdue 2-yard line. Converting those two opportunities puts the game away early and could have turned that game into a rout.
*Buffalo (+16.5) @ Army – The last time that Army was this much of a favorite was in Germany 70+ years ago.  Army ran for over 500 yards last week against Fordham.  Yes, Buffalo is a step up in competition over Fordham, but it might not be as big of a step as you think.
*Indiana (-3) @ Virginia – I saw nothing from Virginia last week against William & Mary that lead me to believe that this game should be anything less than a touchdown spread in favor of Indiana.  The Hoosier hung with Ohio State for the 1st 40 minutes of their game with the Buckeyes, only to let a few big plays break the game open.  UVA doesn’t have the players that tOSU does.  Indiana should be able to score in bunches against the Cavaliers and I don’t think UVA has the fire power to do the same.
*Pitt (+21.5) @ Penn State – I can’t speak rationally about this game due to my obvious bias, I just think 21.5 is a lot of points in a game between rivals.
*Nebraska (+13.5) @ Oregon – Nebraska gave up nearly 500 yards of offense and was outgained by Arkansas State last week.  Good luck stopping Royce Freeman and the Ducks.  Freeman finally seems healthy after two straight years battling injuries.  When healthy he is up there with Barkley and Guice as one of the best RB’s in the nation.  He ran for 150 and 4 scores last week.  I think he has another big week again the Cornhuskers shaky defense.
*Georgia (+4) @ Notre Dame – Georgia is breaking in a new QB after their starter was injured in their Week 1 win over Ap State, but call me crazy, I’m just not buying into this version of Brian Kelly’s squad just yet.  I think ND showed some promise with their dominating win over Temple, especially how they ran the ball, but Georgia will certainly present a tougher challenge and their defense looked very good last week.
*Stanford (+6) @ USC – The Trojans struggled mightily stopping the rushing attack from Western Michigan last week, now they face a much stiffer test in that area in Stanford.  The Broncos ran for 263 on the ground at a 5.5 average.  Stanford ran for 287 in their opener against Rice, with Bryce Love accounting for 180 on just 13 carries.

PLAYOFF PICKS
It is never too early to start projecting the playoff.
1. Alabama – Still not sold on them as the best team in the country, but who on their schedule is going to knock them off?
2. Ohio State – This week will be the Buckeyes toughest test of the season.  Get past Oklahoma and just don’t stumble up in Big Ten play.
3. Oklahoma State – They have the best offense in the country.  If the defense isn’t awful they should reach the Big XII Championship game with 1 loss, if that.
4. Clemson – The Tigers benefit the most from the Francois injury.  They should be favored in every game they play this year now.  They did look good last week, but it was Kent State.  We will know much more about them around 11:30 Saturday night.
NEXT FOUR:
USC – I have my concerns with the Trojans, but that doesn’t discount their talent.  Saturday will be their 1st of many opportunities to make me a believer.
Stanford – I think I am higher on Stanford than most, but that is mainly due to their style of play and their coach.  They still have a question mark at QB, but Saturday should be a nice test for Keller Chryst as he continues to develop.
Oklahoma – Saturday will be Lincoln Riley’s 1st test as a head coach.  The Sooners can afford to lose in Columbus, if they can then run through the Big XII unbeaten.  That would have to include wins in Stillwater for Bedlam, as well as, possibly beating the Cowboys a 2nd time in a month in the return of the Big Ten Championship Game.
Wisconsin – Do I think Wisconsin is one of the best 8 teams in the country? NO.  Do I see them as having the make-up and more importantly the schedule to get them into the playoff conversation? YES.  The Badgers have a massive O-line, a stable of running backs and stingy defense, to go a long with a schedule that might be one of the easiest to navigate for a contender this year.  They miss Penn State and Ohio State.  They host Michigan, one week before the Wolverines biggest game of the season.

That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!


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