College Football Weekly Rant - Week 3

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY RANT

The non-conference slate was fun, but here comes the conference play.  Sure, there are still some decent non-conference games to be played in the 2017 college football season, including this week, but Week 3 we begin to see some better conference games, with fewer high profile non-conference games on the schedule. 

With conference play coming full force in the final weeks of the month, Week 3 sees a lot more of those “buy” games on the slate to let teams get healthy.   The top payout this week is for Georgia State, who is being paid $1.2M to get blasted by Penn State under the lights of Beaver Stadium (but Penn State doesn’t have room for Pitt on their schedule annually…).

Some good conference games highlight the Week 3 schedule with Clemson @ Louisville being the premier game of the week.  The ACC was set up to grab all the eyes this weekend, but Hurricane Irma forced Miami and Florida State to move their annual showdown that was scheduled Saturday in Miami.  Tennessee and Florida re-new their rivalry in Gainesville as well this week.  Another conference game I am looking forward to on Saturday night is one flying under the radar in my mind.  LSU and their new look offense going to Starkville to take on the high-powered Mississippi State offense.

The non-conference schedule isn’t completely barren this week, but just not as good as the first two weeks of the season.  There are still a bunch of Power 5 match-ups this Saturday.  The biggest of those, name wise is Texas traveling to Southern Cal to take on the Trojans in a rematch of the epic 2005 National Championship game.  USC looks like they might contend for a title this year, but unfortunately Texas is not holding up their end of the deal for this re-match, as they are not close to that level.  There are a few other games this weekend that I am sure will peak the interest of the local fanbases, but nothing like what we saw last week, with 3 fantastic primetime non-conference games.

WHAT I LEARNED IN WEEK TWO

*Bob Stoops Left Oklahoma in Good Hands.  It helps to inherit a quarterback like Baker Mayfield when you are a young, first time head coach like Lincoln Riley, but he deserves some credit too.  He took an Oklahoma team that lost tons of playmakers last season, into a hostile environment and won at #2 Ohio State.  There is obviously more to being a head coach than just being on the sidelines in the fall.  We will see how Riley does in recruiting and what happens when he suffers his first loss, but through 2 weeks he has certainly passed every test with flying colors.

*Baker Mayfield Is Everything You Want In a College QB.  This kids just oozes confidence.  He went out and had a career game in an historic venue against a perennial power, then to top it off, he plants the OU flag in the 50-yard line of the Horseshoe.  Michigan fans are so envious.  The only thing Mayfield did wrong was apologize for his acts the next day.   Football teams need badass leaders that give zero F’s, Mayfield is just that, even if he had to go out later and be PC and apologize.  He plays with passion and fire and it showed on the field during and after the game in Columbus.  By the way, that win improved Mayfield to 10-0 on the road as a starter, pretty good!

*Is It Time For Buckeye Fans To Panic?  To be fair, Ohio state has been ravaged by the NFL Draft recently, specifically their secondary, but they also recruit at a VERY high level.  The Buckeyes have now let up 420 yards through the air in back-to-back games and rank dead last in the nation in pass defense.  Things do get easier this week as Army comes to town.  Army is 2-0, but has only completed 2 passes in those 2 wins, totaling 17 yards.  Luckily for Ohio State, they won’t face another formidable passing attack until October 28^th, when Trace McSorely and the Penn State Nittany Lions looks to make it two straight against the Buckeyes.

*Clemson Has The Defense To Defend Their Title.  Can we please stop declaring Auburn and their offense a flop this season?  Jarrett Stidham is a very good young QB, made to play in Gus Malhazn’s offense.  They just so happened to play against likely the best defense in the country in Week 2.  Auburn will be fine, but more importantly, Clemson is truly legit.  The Tigers have the best D-line in the nation, which makes this week’s match-up on the road against the reigning Heisman Trophy winner even more intriguing.  If Clemson can leave Louisville with a win Saturday night however, it would put the Tigers in the driver’s seat in the ACC, with an eye on heading back to the College Football Playoff.

*Penn State Is Not Currently Worthy of Their #4 Ranking.  Don’t get me wrong, the Nittany Lions are a very talented team and they did not get their groove last year until mid-October, but I was not impressed with their performance Saturday against Pitt.  Penn State has superior talent at nearly every position in that match-up, yet Pitt dominated the play for long stretches of the game.  I still fully expect Penn State to make a run to repeat as Big Ten Champs, but they will need to improve big time for that to happen.

*USC Will Win This Year Behind Ronald Jones, NOT Sam Darnold.  I still think Darnold might be the best NFL prospect in college football this year, but I also think that he lost too much at the WR position to duplicate his incredible 2016 season.  Something the Trojans didn’t lose however is Ronald Jones and his offensive line.  In two games this season, Jones has run for 275 and 5 scores on 41 carries.  USC also has freshman Stephen Carr to spell Jones.  Carr has run for 188 and 2 scores as a back-up.  Darnold has been good in the 2 USC wins as well, but not spectacular.  The difference is that this year he doesn’t need to be spectacular for the Trojans to win, he needs to rely on his running game.

WHAT I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK THREE

*Show Me Games.  There are a few teams out there, that have lofty rankings, but they haven’t proved themselves on the field yet.  #9 Oklahoma State played Tulsa and South Alabama their first two games of the season.  A road trip to Pittsburgh, might not seem like much, but it will be by far the Cowboys toughest test to this point, before beginning Big XII play next week.  #12 LSU has played BYU in New Orleans and Chattanooga, this week they start SEC play at night on the road.  Mississippi State and QB Nick Fitzgerald could create problems for LSU, if that happens can the LSU offense keep pace with the Bulldogs?  #18 Kansas State is another team that I want to believe in to compete in the Big XII, but I just don’t know yet.  Vanderbilt won’t beat the stiffest of test, but they will be vastly better than anyone the Wildcats have beat up on so far to this point.

*Heisman vs Defending Champ.  Lamar Jackson is playing like he did last year at this time when he jumped out to such a big Heisman lead, that nobody could catch him, despite he and the Cardinals struggling down the stretch.  This week he faces off against the defending National Champs, that beat him last year with a defensive stop inside the 10 yard line in the final minutes of play.  The Clemson defense in even better this year, but by the looks of it Jackson might be too.  To top it off, thanks to the Deondre Francois injury at Florida State, the winner not only gets bragging rights in this game, but also an inside track at the ACC Atlantic Title.

*Bounce Back Games.  With all the big games last weeks, we had lots of ranked teams lose.  This week will give us a chance to see how they respond to their 1^st loss of the season.  Notre Dame lost at home to Georgia last week, Saturday they go to Boston College.  The Eagles aren’t a great team, but always play ND tough.  The defense will challenge an O-line that struggled last week.  Could this be a make or break game for Brian Kelly?  Stanford gave up over 300 yards on the ground last week in their loss to USC.  This week they go to San Diego State, to face the Aztec and running back Rashaad Penny, who leads the nation in yards per game.

A GAMBLING EYE

*Iowa State (-10.5, O/U 63) @ Akron – Matt Campbell has the Cyclones offense rolling in year 2.  I am not worried about them scoring points, they have scored 83 points in their 1^st 2 games.  Akron gave up 52 to the only FBS opponent they have seen this year. 

*UCLA (-3.5, O/U 73) @ Memphis – UCLA is travelling across the country to play a 9AM game on their body clocks.  Memphis is a team that can score too.  The Tigers will play physical and try to pound the ball.  They ran for 319 yards in their only game this season.  UCLA has allowed an average of 331.5 yards on the ground this season.  Josh Rosen and the Bruin offense should be able to move the ball, it will be interesting to see how sharp they are with such an early start time.

*Baylor (+14.5, O/U 59) @ Duke – Baylor has been dreadful this season, losing to FCS Liberty in Week 1, then to only scoring 10 in a loss to UTSA last week.  The Bears step up in competition, taking on their first Power 5 opponent of the year.  The Blue Devils in turn will be playing their 2^nd straight P5 opponent.  The Blue Devils have been one of the surprises in the ACC through 2 weeks. QB Daniel Jones has taken strides from last year and Duke has scored 101 points in two games this year, including 41 on a veteran Northwestern team.

*Tennessee (+4.5, O/U 49) @ Florida – The Gators have only played 1 game this season and it was awful against Michigan.  They have spent the last week trying to recover from Hurricane Irma.  It is tough to say if the Gators will come on playing for the city and state, or come out exhausted and distracted.  Tennessee at least won their opener against a P5 school (Georgia Tech), but the defensive issues that hurt the Vols towards the end of last year, have shown up again this year through 2 weeks.

*LSU (-7.5, O/U 53) @ Mississippi State – This number is interesting to me.  LSU seems like the better team, but for a team like LSU who has struggled to score over the years to be giving more than a touchdown to a team that has had an explosive offense seems odd.  That extra half a point could be the factor in this game.

*Kansas State (-4, O/U 50) @ Vanderbilt – Kansas State is ranked 18^th in the country.  Vanderbilt is, well Vanderbilt.  This is another game that seems like the experts know something I don’t.

PLAYOFF PICKS

It is never too early to start projecting the playoff.

1. Alabama – Who in the SEC is going to beat them this year?

2. Oklahoma State – I’m looking forward to seeing the Cowboys in person Saturday.  Despite the Sooners performance last week, I still believe Ok State is the best team in the Big XII.

3. Clemson – Defense wins championships.  Clemson has the best defense in the country.

4. USC – The Trojans still have question marks, but when you have a backfield of Darnold and Jones it makes life much easier.

NEXT UP:

Oklahoma – They proved everything they needed to with their road win in Columbus, now they just need to avoid the bad loss that Bob Stoops teams were so accustomed to.

Michigan – This was supposed to be a re-build year for the Wolverine, but they haven’t missed a step.  Saturday worried me a bit, with them playing down to the level of their opponent.  Air Force comes to town this week in the final non-conference game.  Then Big Ten play begins and right now they are playing as good as any team in the conference.

That is all this week.  Make sure the refrigerator is stocked, the spare remote-control batteries are nearby and enjoy the games!